Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[CoastalWx]

I wonder if were like -0.5 for a spell ahead of that because the later 108 hr snow is 8 along the pike bending a bit north near 128.

 

There will be like a 2-3 hr window where it's blitzing some sort of precip. An hour or two quicker and it's the difference of 2-4" if you know what I mean. As verbatim, the cold air races in, but the lift is also departing.  It certainly argues for accumulating snow right at 06z and on. it looks like the RASN line is close to the 850mb 0C isotherm. 

[Ginx snewx]

.

post that for 18 z

[Damage In Tolland]

You need to go further north that that, but yeah..it did go south.

Seems like as 00z should come another 50 miles south will make a huge difference in outcome

[CoastalWx]

Scooters ACk holding fast

 

Still like that guess, but what I really want to see is that polar front just a bit more south. That would really help out I-90 and points south. But, I think it's important not to get too worked up as models clearly are still feeling out the upper level pattern.

[CoastalWx]

Seems like as 00z should come another 50 miles south will make a huge difference in outcome

 

Should? Hmm...I hope, but I don't know if mother nature agrees...lol. 

[Ginx snewx]

980 is robust, dynamic,heckuva storm

[Ginx snewx]

Very snowy week in NNE

[CoastalWx]

To me, the differences could be seen at hr 66 compared to hr 78 on the 00z run. The srn s/w was a bit weaker, and that PV lobe a bit further south. As we went along, everything started to come together, but this run was a bit less amped in the end. It could easily change at 00z though so I'm hesitant to call it a "trend."

[CoastalWx]

Going back further at hr 48, you can see the 12z run has a stronger ridge in NW Canada. This led to stronger winds digging on the back side of the Hudson Bay Polar lobe which meant it was digging further south...hence that further south PV lobe at hr 66.

[eyewall]

post that for 18 z

 

They don't give you one for 18z. The site only gives 0z and 12z runs.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not posting because I am excited...I'm just showing how intricate all these processes are.

[weathafella]

Well let's hoe we have at least one more tick. No one up north was hurt but folks in sne were helpd.

[Ginx snewx]

Still like that guess, but what I really want to see is that polar front just a bit more south. That would really help out I-90 and points south. But, I think it's important not to get too worked up as models clearly are still feeling out the upper level pattern.

once they are done feeling out the upper pattern lets hope the lower pattern is not overstimulated and hot and moist, hate when that happens

[weathafella]

It's march....and the cold is real. It wouldn't take much to have a lot of snow I more places.

3/8/05 is actually a good analog sensible wx wise including time of day for the flip.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well let's hoe we have at least one more tick. No one up north was hurt but folks in sne were helpd.

Right .. Another 60-100 miles won't hurt anyone up north but it will help their weather nerd friends in SNE immensely

[powderfreak]

Right .. Another 60-100 miles won't hurt anyone up north but it will help their weather nerd friends in SNE immensely

Haha, another 50 miles and we struggle for 3"...what are you talking about?

[Damage In Tolland]

Haha, another 50 miles and we struggle for 3"...what are you talking about?

Not in a huge moisture laden storm like this. That would still bring good snow to Montreal . It just would bring the heavier snow farther south

[weathafella]

Haha, another 50 miles and we struggle for 3"...what are you talking about?

Not according to qpf and snow maps.

[weathafella]

OT but euro steadfast d8-9. Locking in early?

[Tornadomachine]

No doubt really interesting here look on this run for us on the Northern Mass border.

Oh, I really hope it stays this way.  I'm going out to OU for college this fall, I NEED one last blockbuster.

[dryslot]

Well let's hoe we have at least one more tick. No one up north was hurt but folks in sne were helpd.

 

 

Right .. Another 60-100 miles won't hurt anyone up north but it will help their weather nerd friends in SNE immensely

 

That's more then a tick, Another 20-40 miles is a tick

[powderfreak]

Not in a huge moisture laden storm like this. That would still bring good snow to Montreal . It just would bring the heavier snow farther south

Ok...yeah I just see Montreal getting fringed on the ECM, so I'm wondering how a 50-100 mile shift south would still hit them good. But it's irrelevant really. It's pretty perfect where it is right now, lol.

The goal posts seemed to have narrowed, with GGEM and GFS going NW, and ECM a tick south. This will likely wobble around in this general zone now.

[nzucker]

Ok...yeah I just see Montreal getting fringed on the ECM, so I'm wondering how a 50-100 mile shift south would still hit them good. But it's irrelevant really. It's pretty perfect where it is right now, lol.

The goal posts seemed to have narrowed, with GGEM and GFS going NW, and ECM a tick south. This will likely wobble around in this general zone now.

Powder, you know Kevin doesn't actually look at the model, he just posts. That's why he doesn't see what you see, because he isn't actually looking. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's 'fake' warm out. I like that aspect of spring, a season that for me can be painful.  Painful because the recession intervals back toward colder climate that can occur are futile when the sirens of seasonal change have already succeeded in evoking nostalgia for the energy of summer.  But the sun can create these cozy little nooks, if they are out of the wind.  One can seat themselves in warmth of the sun, and then only barely be bothered by the nuance of a cold stream of air.

[mahk_webstah]

whats the start time on this?  it was looking like later on wednesday, but is it coming in sooner?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hoping Scooters early ACK holds.

[powderfreak]

Powder, you know Kevin doesn't actually look at the model, he just posts. That's why he doesn't see what you see, because he isn't actually looking.

Well to be fair I bit on that post...he cast the line out and I are it. Of course he knows most in NNE wouldn't want a 100 mile shift south, lol.

[CoastalWx]

It's 'fake' warm out. I like that aspect of spring, a season that for me can be painful.  Painful because the recession intervals back toward colder climate that can occur are futile when the sirens of seasonal change have already succeeded in evoking nostalgia for the energy of summer.  But the sun can create these cozy little nooks, if they are out of the wind.  One can seat themselves in warmth of the sun, and then only barely be bothered by the nuance of a cold stream of air.

 

Yes, days that tickle 45F can deliver a 28F wind blown snow. Same airmass, but throw in precip to wetbulb and voila!

[dryslot]

whats the start time on this?  it was looking like later on wednesday, but is it coming in sooner?

 

18z Weds

[CoastalWx]

Day 8 is tasty, but that is light years away obviously.