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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

The PV lobe that Will mentioned is extremely important. It might overpower the improvements out west. That's been trending weaker so that the arctic front is hung up well north. That feature has been losing ground since yesterday.

It sometimes seems, without having any factual evidence to back it up, that the models tend to play catch up with these Canadian features, as opposed to balanced wobbling.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Basically what I mentioned the other day as not wanting to see. You want the storm riding south along the front and not on top of you. Of course PF and NNE feel different lol.

 

 

Yeah it wont matter for powderfreaks area...they'll get into the cold enough....but it may screw CNE over to parts of Maine if it doesn't stop trending poorly.

 

I think the best scenario for SNE right now is a flash freeze 4-6 hour period of heavy snow...keep the main shortwave dynamic and we would end up with a decent finish...but wire to wire snow is looking much tougher right now...at least for most of SNE...perhaps N ORH hills/Monads/NW MA could still pull it off.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

We aren't even that far below normal. I average 86" annually and have 74" with 2-4" coming Monday and potentially more Wednesday.

Seems pretty normal to me.

It's really only the upslope zones to be honest...it includes the Spine north of Sugarbush and also over into NNH upslope spots. Places like myself, J.Spin, the ski areas (Bolton/Stowe/Smuggs/Jay), First CT Lake up in NH, etc...places like that.

The upslope has been missing...we have yet to have really any advisory or warning criteria upslope events when we usually see several. I'm more fascinated in how the pattern prevented it because we had the storms moving through the area, and it's very rare to get 5 rain events without one producing a large backside upslope storm.

But we are off-topic now. I bet if upslope snow doesn't make up a decent amount of snow in your annual totals, you'd be pretty close to spot on average.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Yeah it wont matter for powderfreaks area...they'll get into the cold enough....but it may screw CNE over to parts of Maine if it doesn't stop trending poorly.

 

I think the best scenario for SNE right now is a flash freeze 4-6 hour period of heavy snow...keep the main shortwave dynamic and we would end up with a decent finish...but wire to wire snow is looking much tougher right now...at least for most of SNE...perhaps N ORH hills/Monads/NW MA could still pull it off.

The outlook is not looking good imho

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It sometimes seems, without having any factual evidence to back it up, that the models tend to play catch up with these Canadian features, as opposed to balanced wobbling.

PV wobbles and lobes are never handled well. Add to that any changes in the s/w's moving across the Plains and you alter the height field over the eastern US making it more difficult or facilitating that PV lobe from coming SE. We need that lobe to add confluence.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

PV wobbles and lobes are never handled well. Add to that any changes in the s/w's moving across the Plains and you alter the height field over the eastern US making it more difficult or facilitating that PV lobe from coming SE. We need that lobe to add confluence.

 

Yeah, that previous storm was a good example of PV lobes being poorly modeled.  That system that started off being progged up here and then ended up south of Washington DC...once models started trending a certain direction with the PV lobe, it never backed off.  There's still a lot of time left here and if that cold air push gets less and less, we could even have trouble up here.  I mean there's still 4 days left and we saw what happened last week once the models started getting a handle on a feature associated with the PV...every single run pretty much kept going in that direction.

 

Not saying it would happen this time, but we are still a long way out.  This isn't like 24 hours away.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Yeah it wont matter for powderfreaks area...they'll get into the cold enough....but it may screw CNE over to parts of Maine if it doesn't stop trending poorly.

I think the best scenario for SNE right now is a flash freeze 4-6 hour period of heavy snow...keep the main shortwave dynamic and we would end up with a decent finish...but wire to wire snow is looking much tougher right now...at least for most of SNE...perhaps N ORH hills/Monads/NW MA could still pull it off.

Watatic Whopper? It almost has that feel of one of those tight gradient snows for ORH county from S-N.

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

Posted
Posted

Yeah, that previous storm was a good example of PV lobes being poorly modeled. That system that started off being progged up here and then ended up south of Washington DC...once models started trending a certain direction with the PV lobe, it never backed off. There's still a lot of time left here and if that cold air push gets less and less, we could even have trouble up here. I mean there's still 4 days left and we saw what happened last week once the models started getting a handle on a feature associated with the PV...every single run pretty much kept going in that direction.

Not saying it would happen this time, but we are still a long way out. This isn't like 24 hours away.

It's only 3 days away. Most guidance starts snow/rain by 12z Wednesday.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Yeah it wont matter for powderfreaks area...they'll get into the cold enough....but it may screw CNE over to parts of Maine if it doesn't stop trending poorly.

 

I think the best scenario for SNE right now is a flash freeze 4-6 hour period of heavy snow...keep the main shortwave dynamic and we would end up with a decent finish...but wire to wire snow is looking much tougher right now...at least for most of SNE...perhaps N ORH hills/Monads/NW MA could still pull it off.

 

Its starting to be a little to close for my liking for me here, But the Inland areas get crushed

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

I'm unsure as to why, for the life of them, anyone in their right minds would root on 6-8"of flash-freeze concrete for sne in mid March.

 

Just eviscerate the PV lobe and call it a season......or accentuate it and go yard stick.

New phrase in our lexicon.,,,well played!

And we all are with you Ray.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

I'm unsure as to why, for the life of them, anyone in their right minds would root on 6-8"of flash-freeze concrete for sne in mid March.

Just eviscerate the PV lobe and call it a season......or accentuate it and go yard stick.

Welcome back sir...im goin through the same stuff. Stay positive.

But we dont wanna let winter go, our hope is we continue to freeze up threw june somehow.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

It's only 3 days away. Most guidance starts snow/rain by 12z Wednesday.

 

I guess that's true.  This season the models have seemed to make some big leaps though in this 72-96 hour zone...I mean the ever reliable NAM is just barely getting into its time frame. 

 

This year just has seemed worse than usual for jumps close in...we'll have to watch that boundary that sets this whole thing up.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I don't know, all of the operational runs are well north and we are 72 hrs away from start time.

 

Well, I don't think you really should discard the ensembles this far out, would only take shuffling around a few features to have some bigger implications for some on here in a more positive direction

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