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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

12z GFS coming in warmer, but it looks to be more dynamic...I actually like the trend in the better PNA ridge out west...more energy is in the base of the trough.

This could be a snow to rain to flash-freeze snow scenario in parts of SNE while its all snow up to the north.

It looks like 1.5" of cold rain for ORH. Am I missing something?

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Tyngsboro Chowdacane

Tyngsboro Chowdacane

Posted
Posted

Welcome to the board!  Certainly looks like a nailbiter for us Northcentral MA people.

 

I've noticed that this storm looks a lot like the mid-feb Miller A that jogged west in the models.  Anybody else feeling it?

Thanks bud. I live on the Dunstable line, near 113 so not too far from you. 12z's looking warm for us. The trend is not our friend on this. Obviously, still plenty of hope left.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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It looks like 1.5" of cold rain for ORH. Am I missing something?

 

 

Starts as snow, goes to heavy rain for a good while and then back to snow/flash freeze...verbatim its not a great solution, but I'm looking at trends in the upper air field rather than worrying about these exact solutions which so many on here do...it'll drive yourself nuts doing that.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
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Toaster bath for just about everyone south of new hamoshire. This is going to be a great storm for the mountains, and NNE in general. Hopefully people in NNE that are above normal in snowfall, and have 2 feet of snow on the ground, can finally feel like they aren't getting screwed lol.

Long ways to go, but this has bad news written all over it for this area

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

Starts as snow, goes to heavy rain for a good while and then back to snow/flash freeze...verbatim its not a great solution, but I'm looking at trends in the upper air field rather than worrying about these exact solutions which so many on here do...it'll drive yourself nuts doing that.

So specifically, you like the sharper trough? Not being sarcastic, I don't understand the upper air stuff very well and trying to learn.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Another thing we'll have to watch is that vort-lobe on the PV that swings down near James Bay just ahead of the main shortwave...that has been trending a bit weaker and incorporating more of its energy into the lagging shortwave...that also prevents the front from getting as far south.

 

So this run we had a better PNA ridge, but the weaker lobe and transfering more of its energy into the main shortwave allowed for htis storm to amplify further northeast than it would otherwise...so its a warmer solution despite one aspect trending favorably for a colder solution.

 

This is pretty important....you'll see rain get well into CNE and Maine if that lobe doesn't stop trending weaker.

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

Posted
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Toaster bath for just about everyone south of new hamoshire. This is going to be a great storm for the mountains, and NNE in general. Hopefully people in NNE that are above normal in snowfall, and have 2 feet of snow on the ground, can finally feel like they aren't getting screwed lol.

Long ways to go, but this has bad news written all over it for this area

FWIW most of NNE is at or just below average this season especially in VT.

But yeah, looks good for 72h out. Guidance is definitely zeroing in on a more northern track.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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FWIW most of NNE is at or just below average this season especially in VT.

But yeah, looks good for 72h out. Guidance is definitely zeroing in on a more northern track.

 

Yes Ed, Right at avg here as well, Look to add onto it though over the next couple weeks hopefully

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SnowMan

SnowMan

Posted
Posted

SnowMan has been taunting the sne posters especially us on the cp. I never root for anyone to get rain but when he does angrily putting out his cigar Thursday morning as he contemplates a 3 hour commute to work I won't be terribly upset.

I think if nothing changes today the writing is getting set on this one. We need this to originate further south, Not worth much but the nam is snowy (12Z/9).

I wasn't taunting anyone, was just having fun. I am fine if it rains or if it snows. Who has a three hour commute?
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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So specifically, you like the sharper trough? Not being sarcastic, I don't understand the upper air stuff very well and trying to learn.

 

 

Basically the combo of things we want is a sharp trough that isn't also further north north/northeast....i.e. better PNA ridge. However, one major fly in the ointment is that PV lobe in James Bay..its been relenquishing some of its energy into the main shortwave behind it...this does two thing...it energizes the trough to the west, and it also keeps the frontal boundayr further north....so in essence, you have a bad combination for trying to keep it cold. You have a more dynamic storm, but its also forming further north...usually you want a more dynamic storm but forming south.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Maybe southern NH? I'm sure CON is well above normal.

It's a whole different world from CON up into NNH haha.

 

 

CON is above normal, pretty sure dendrite north of CON is above normal, MWN is above normal, Pinkham Notch is above normal. Its really only extreme NNH over to N half of VT below normal.

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

Posted
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CON is above normal, pretty sure dendrite north of CON is above normal, MWN is above normal, Pinkham Notch is above normal. Its really only extreme NNH over to N half of VT below normal.

We aren't even that far below normal. I average 86" annually and have 74" with 2-4" coming Monday and potentially more Wednesday.

Seems pretty normal to me.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

We aren't even that far below normal. I average 86" annually and have 74" with 2-4" coming Monday and potentially more Wednesday.

Seems pretty normal to me.

This is the right way to look at it IMHO. Normal never comes in even 24 hour intervals.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Basically the combo of things we want is a sharp trough that isn't also further north north/northeast....i.e. better PNA ridge. However, one major fly in the ointment is that PV lobe in James Bay..its been relenquishing some of its energy into the main shortwave behind it...this does two thing...it energizes the trough to the west, and it also keeps the frontal boundayr further north....so in essence, you have a bad combination for trying to keep it cold. You have a more dynamic storm, but its also forming further north...usually you want a more dynamic storm but forming south.

I was noticing that...the cold air push prior to the system is quite weak when before that cold was getting drilled deep into New England. The system is developing further north out west of us, it's still taking a similar trajectory of a track, it's just the whole thing from start to finish is further north.

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