Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[OSUmetstud]

Yes that is true...though for some reason the UKMET has never been able to handle east coast cyclogenesis very well despite its solid Z scores. That always puzzled me a bit.

yeah it is a bit weird with that particular aspect.  I always liked using it forecasting out in Bermuda, and it worked well out there, definitely better than the GFS as a whole.  

[Ginx snewx]

GFS weenie

[8611Blizz]

It is not a particularly slow moving storm at all...its probably about a 12-18 hour deal. There's been some runs that hold back steady snow a bit on the end because the sfc outruns the upper level support a bit...but this storm deson't look like a staller or anything.

 

 

 

00z GEFS are just inside the BM it looks like.

Thanks will.

[OSUmetstud]

Usually when the h500 pattern smooths out or slows down (jet lifts north)...fast flow, multiple/interacting s/w's will always lower the models' score...except for the blind squirrel rule.

High latitude blocks and spring cut-offs tend to lower scores too.  I'd imagine March is the worst of the "winter" month when it comes to modeling.  

[Ginx snewx]

Whose on first, IDK second base.,.storm coning suppression off the table, finite details emerge by Mon it appears

[ORH_wxman]

High latitude blocks and spring cut-offs tend to lower scores too.  I'd imagine March is the worst of the "winter" month when it comes to modeling.  

 

 

Convection is also really bad for models...so def March is the worst of the winter months. We get by far the most convection over the N hemisphere land areas in March over those other months.

[dryslot]

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1394341444.652030.jpgGFS weenie

 

I know your licking your chops, Perfect timing it seems

[dryslot]

I think i will stay up for the last EST run of the 0z Euro this am, It really blows getting the model runs 1 hour later

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I'm liking my location in far NW MA for this one, even at modest elevations. 

thump-taint-thump with 6"+ looking good 4 days out. lol

[OSUmetstud]

GFS looks 6-12 hours faster than the Euro.  

[Ginx snewx]

I'm liking my location in far NW MA for this one, even at modest elevations.

thump-taint-thump with 6"+ looking good 4 days out. lol

You will be a Happy Hippie

[Ginx snewx]

I think i will stay up for the last EST run of the 0z Euro this am, It really blows getting the model runs 1 hour later

Im in.last hurrah

[dryslot]

I'm liking my location in far NW MA for this one, even at modest elevations. 

thump-taint-thump with 6"+ looking good 4 days out. lol

 

Yup, You, Dave, And shawl boy (MPM) are all in a good spot for this one

[ORH_wxman]

I think i will stay up for the last EST run of the 0z Euro this am, It really blows getting the model runs 1 hour later

 

 

Yeah there is no chance I'm staying up for the Euro tomorrow, even if we are on the brink of a huge storm.

 

 

At any rate, I am not overly excited about these less phased solutions...the Euro has been the most phased by far, but even today it strayed slightly from it...hence the quicker movement.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

You will be a Happy Hippie

 

 

Yup, You, Dave, And shawl boy (MPM) are all in a good spot for this one

 

Come March it is usually latitude ftw.  N of Rt 2 is a nice place to be as currently modeled. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Yeah there is no chance I'm staying up for the Euro tomorrow, even if we are on the brink of a huge storm.

 

 

At any rate, I am not overly excited about these less phased solutions...the Euro has been the most phased by far, but even today it strayed slightly from it...hence the quicker movement.

 

Nice storm possible for some but anyone thinking HECS is in for reality check.   This has not been the year for slow moving systems.

[weathafella]

Kind of thread the needle unless it phases. Plenty of cold available.

[ORH_wxman]

Come March it is usually latitude ftw.  N of Rt 2 is a nice place to be as currently modeled. 

 

 

I would actually argue that elevation is bigger in March than latitude...biggest reason why ORH avaerages more than CON in MAR but not DEC/JAN.

 

But this storm doesn't look like its going to be hugely elevation dependent...at least from what I see now.

[Ginx snewx]

Phase south works,non phase south works

[Ginx snewx]

A 980 at ACK is nothing to sneeze about with strong deep cold HP in Eastern Canada

[ORH_wxman]

Phase south works,non phase south works

 

 

Id prefer to see more southward trajectory of the northern stream energy than we've seen today...the PNA ridge out west has trended flatter.

 

 

Doesn't mean we aren't getting a good storm still...but something like yesterday's 12z Euro probably isn't happening unless we trend it back a little more poleward with that PNA ridge.

[dryslot]

Yeah there is no chance I'm staying up for the Euro tomorrow, even if we are on the brink of a huge storm.

 

 

At any rate, I am not overly excited about these less phased solutions...the Euro has been the most phased by far, but even today it strayed slightly from it...hence the quicker movement.

 

12hr systems have pretty much been the norm this year, This one looks to be no different right now, Still some time left though for some shifting but we don't want to see a partial phase with more of a strung out POS, That will really not do many any good at all

[Ginx snewx]

Id prefer to see more southward trajectory of the northern stream energy than we've seen today...the PNA ridge out west has trended flatter.

Doesn't mean we aren't getting a good storm still...but something like yesterday's 12z Euro probably isn't happening unless we trend it back a little more poleward with that PNA ridge.

lol on the GFS vacation week in Maine, Happy St Paddys day up there ,something like 18+ on gridded fantasy land. Near term GFS gridded for my hood .62 frozen .54 NCP

[Ginx snewx]

Id prefer to see more southward trajectory of the northern stream energy than we've seen today...the PNA ridge out west has trended flatter.

Doesn't mean we aren't getting a good storm still...but something like yesterday's 12z Euro probably isn't happening unless we trend it back a little more poleward with that PNA ridge.

ENS were pretty stout

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM ensembles look really close to the GEFS...just inside the BM it appears. They are a shade warmer than the GEFS though can prob bring ptype issues to SE MA and S CT/RI. But those finer details are still fairly irrelevant.

[Ginx snewx]

GGEM ensembles look really close to the GEFS...just inside the BM it appears. They are a shade warmer than the GEFS though can prob bring ptype issues to SE MA and S CT/RI. But those finer details are still fairly irrelevant.

helluva ll feed, might be a pinger fest on the coast. Seems models might grasp that cold late again.

[dryslot]

I favor that just inside the BM for up here, Keeps mid level centers near by most of the time

[ORH_wxman]

ENS were pretty stout

 

 

The OP runs are too...in terms of track/strength....but I'm spekaing more from a dynamical standpoint of true phasing and capturing....these aren't really very big phased solutions...they are partial phases. They are good enough to bring a nice system...and I'm certainly interested in tracking it...but was merely commenting that these upper air setups are not going to produce those monster solutions like 12z Euro yesterday...where it almost looked a bit like March '93 (at least in our area) with the size of the precip shield, circulation, and shear power.

 

 

Its more of an observation about the upper air trend today rather than a "worry". I also think the somewhat flatter PNA is preventing the front from sagging as far south, so the real arctic high is staying a bit bottled to the northwest. That part may be an unfortunate consequence of the flatter PNA since it makes ptype issues more likely but without as much reward for bigger storm.

 

 

This all can still change though...we're talking fairly small details that can easily flipe back at this time range...but the next 2-3 runs or so are probably going to begin honing in pretty good on those aspects.

[Ginx snewx]

Orh 1.32 all frozen on GFS gridded, .24 sleet

[Ginx snewx]

The OP runs are too...in terms of track/strength....but I'm spekaing more from a dynamical standpoint of true phasing and capturing....these aren't really very big phased solutions...they are partial phases. They are good enough to bring a nice system...and I'm certainly interested in tracking it...but was merely commenting that these upper air setups are not going to produce those monster solutions like 12z Euro yesterday...where it almost looked a bit like March '93 (at least in our area) with the size of the precip shield, circulation, and shear power.

Its more of an observation about the upper air trend today rather than a "worry". I also think the somewhat flatter PNA is preventing the front from sagging as far south, so the real arctic high is staying a bit bottled to the northwest. That part may be an unfortunate consequence of the flatter PNA since it makes ptype issues more likely but without as much reward for bigger storm.

This all can still change though...we're talking fairly small details that can easily flipe back at this time range...but the next 2-3 runs or so are probably going to begin honing in pretty good on those aspects.

guess we will know in a few minutes