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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

That pretty much is an ideal storm. Starts as a mix, goes to a paste, followed by wind blown blizzard. Too bad I think it's going to be further NW than that, but in the grand scheme of things...just another solution. It never completely phases the two s/w's.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

LOL , yea too bad its the GFS, j/k, look forward to your 3 am Euro post when I wake up at 6ish, lol

Last night the cats woke me up. I don't stay up for the 00z ec anymore...especially now with DST kicking in. 515a on the weekdays comes quick and I value my sleep second to Kevin.

At least it looks like someone will get it good. The next few days will be fun.

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

Posted
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This storm is a classic late season event where cold air is entrained into the system as it develops. It's actually cooling at the surface as it approaches. Classic late season event.

Wouldn't you think the 2m temperatures would be colder than what the GFS is showing given its tendency to be too warm in dynamic cooling situations? 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I'd much rather deal with an amped storm...even solutions like the Euro would flip much of SNE to heavy snow for a time before the end...you'd probably get as much snow from 3-4 hours at the end as you would on a strung out weaker low that keeps it all snow. \

 

You want dynamics...obviously not having the low cut overhead or anything that anmped, but you'd rather deal with ptype issues than keep it flat if you are aiming for bigger snow totals...if you don't midn the lower totals but insist on keep ptype issues away, then the flatter solutions are for you.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Wouldn't you think the 2m temperatures would be colder than what the GFS is showing given its tendency to be too warm in dynamic cooling situations?

Yeah probably. This is why I look at soundings to see wetbulb temps. That's key. -1.5C wetbulb temp at 950 equals snow IMHO. I'm actually more concerned with temps aloft. I do think a setup like this argues for a mix to start even inland. Unless, the cold really makes it in here first, but the tendency is for this not to happen.

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted

Yeah probably. This is why I look at soundings to see wetbulb temps. That's key. -1.5C wetbulb temp at 950 equals snow IMHO. I'm actually more concerned with temps aloft. I do think a setup like this argues for a mix to start even inland. Unless, the cold really makes it in here first, but the tendency is for this not to happen.

18Z GFS has -2C at 925 at start of storm, falling to -12C at end of storm FOBY.  All snow verbatim.

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