Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[Typhoon Tip]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1054 AM EST SAT MAR 08 2014

VALID 12Z TUE MAR 11 2014 - 12Z SAT MAR 15 2014


...MODELS HOMING IN ON A MAJOR SNOWSTORM FOR NEW YORK STATE AND
NEW ENGLAND...

THE SPLIT FLOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
OF LATE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF "ZIPPING UP" AT THE MEDIUM RANGE IN
THE WAKE OF A COMPLEX WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
MID-PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR THE CONSOLIDATION IS A
REAMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA--PUMPED UP
IN PART BY A SERIES OF DEEP CYCLONES TRACKING INTO ALASKA. RELIED
ON A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z/08 ECMWF AND ECENS MEAN FOR THE FRONTS
AND PRESSURES THIS PACKAGE, AS THIS GUIDANCE IS BEST IN TUNE WITH
THE MULTI-DAY MEANS AND TRENDS.

THE WAVE CROSSING THE EAST IS INDEED COMPLEX, WITH A SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO SHEARING OUT AHEAD OF IT, AND ARCTIC AIR
FILTERING DOWN TO ITS NORTH. THE DISPARATE ORIGINS OF THE
CONTRIBUTING ENERGY PACKETS WILL MAKE FOR AN ESPECIALLY
CHALLENGING PARSING OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE SLUGS AND THERMAL
RIBBONS. IN GENERAL, SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE GULF SYSTEM, WITH HEAVY SNOWS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS STILL A SMALL
CHANCE THAT THE ICE AND SNOW MAY MATERIALIZE FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES, DEPENDING ON THE LATITUDE OF THE
ARCTIC-POLAR CONFLUENT ZONE.

WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE, ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL DRY OUT
LATE IN THE WEEK.


CISCO

[powderfreak]

That WPC disco seems like a decent statement this far out...but they too seem to be leaving the door open for a further south solution instead of further north, judging by that last statement.

[TalcottWx]

So this run is great for interior ares north of the pike.

I hadn't seen actual panels until now. That is a burial imby and toaster run in southie/brookline.

 

Maybe big time gradient even me to ray.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Here's a color image of the same, better res. What a gradient.

Every one of these monsters modeled beyond day 4.5 have turned into mush. Usually within 2 model runs.

[SnowMan]

Euro looked good...again consistent for this area. If it shows this come 12z Monday we can lock it in.

[TalcottWx]

Every one of these monsters modeled beyond day 4.5 have turned into mush. Usually within 2 model runs.

This one seems different in regards to that. Seems like the players at hand and the long range hints lead me to believe this one will come to fruition one way or another.

[weathafella]

I hadn't seen actual panels until now. That is a burial imby and toaster run in southie/brookline.

Maybe big time gradient even me to ray.

Jay, there's a lot of back end snow for mby and southie verbatim.

[Ginx snewx]

Euro ens 988 is deep for an ens run

 

[SnowMan]

Euro ens 988 is deep for an ens run

How much rain you getting?

[CoastalWx]

This won't be suppressed. Some of you need to stop being snake bitten.

[Ginx snewx]

Disclaimer, whatever I post is discussion of a model run not a forecast for those who like to bump posts.

[Ginx snewx]

How much rain you getting?

really ? don't know or care, my heart is not at my house from now until end of April

[Damage In Tolland]

You wonder if it's like a marginal /isothermal 32 snower even just a few miles inland..or if it's elevation and then backside snows for everyone..That track and bombing low just doesn't seem like a rainy one. I think folks might want to hedge on the snowy side

[H2Otown_WX]

How much rain you getting?

Careful, it's a little early to be high-stepping it into the endzone.

[SnowMan]

really ? don't know or care, my heart is not at my house from now until end of April

Ok just asking...

[Ginx snewx]

You wonder if it's like a marginal /isothermal 32 snower even just a few miles inland..or if it's elevation and then backside snows for everyone..That track and bombing low just doesn't seem like a rainy one. I think folks might want to hedge on the snowy side

specifics are silly now,whats your climo for Mid March for Kentucky to ACK 1000 to 988 LP with -20 air in Quebec anchored by a 1030 HP, you figure it out

[TalcottWx]

Jay, there's a lot of back end snow for mby and southie verbatim.

For sure, Was just thinking in regards to totals from what I saw. I think everyone sees their share of frozen in the end. Although at this range, its possible many don't.

[Damage In Tolland]

specifics are silly now,whats your climo for Mid March for Kentucky to ACK 1000 to 988 LP with -20 air in Quebec anchored by a 1030 HP, you figure it out

Well yeah..that's kind of what I was saying..that's a fresh cold high..I have a feeling the Euro package is in it's too amped phase..but even if it wasn't..that would be plenty of wet snow

[TalcottWx]

Euro ens 988 is deep for an ens run

988 in that locale would be awesome for a lot. 

 

People at Towson knew I was into weather and listened to me, Merrimack is just catching onto that. My friends today were extremely frustrated and in awe when I told them that there may be a sizeable snowstorm next week. Especially frustrated seeing as its a downslope dandy as we speak.

[CoastalWx]

That's a sweet high to the north. Probably a sleet bomb for nrn CT and near the pike on the ensemble. Houses ripped to their studs from sleet.

[CoastalWx]

Well yeah..that's kind of what I was saying..that's a fresh cold high..I have a feeling the Euro package is in it's too amped phase..but even if it wasn't..that would be plenty of wet snow

Probably wouldn't be wet snow if you were to get it.

[Ginx snewx]

That's a sweet high to the north. Probably a sleet bomb for nrn CT and near the pike on the ensemble. Houses ripped to their studs from sleet.

Dodge trucks stripped of their paint stuff.

[TalcottWx]

That's a sweet high to the north. Probably a sleet bomb for nrn CT and near the pike on the ensemble. Houses ripped to their studs from sleet.

Would you happen to think that the area around Tolland may have heavy damage?

[Ginx snewx]

Growing signal for strong winds with this bad boy

[Damage In Tolland]

Probably wouldn't be wet snow if you were to get it.

Im fine if it ends up 4-8 of all sleet. Pack till mid -late April with coming cold pattern and more threats

[powderfreak]

This won't be suppressed. Some of you need to stop being snake bitten.

 

You watch your tongue.  Don't let Mother Nature hear you.

[Ji]

I need orh lottery number ASAP

[ORH_wxman]

Reading the last 3 pages I missed is kind of a bit humorous...so worried about verbatim details.

 

 

Almost as bad as the QPF queens like 3 days before an event. I wouldn't sweat it...the OP on the spaghetti plots is actually a bit deeper than the mean now at 96 hours with the torugh west...there's going to be some shifting....and I also would not worry totally yet about thermal profiles...that is a beast high pressure, so you could see a deal where the profiles trend a bit colder as we get closer even if the mean track stays similar.

[ORH_wxman]

I need orh lottery number ASAP

 

 

446

[CoastalWx]

You watch your tongue. Don't let Mother Nature hear you.

I'm sticking by my guess near ACK give or take 30-50 miles If this goes due east of Wallops Island, you and all the pony-os can tear a piece of my degree off an light it on fire.

Finally at home so I'll review guidance shortly.