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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Yeah you should....the OP Euro has fluctuated between the middle of ensemble guidance and the less amped side of ensmeble guidance...last night, despite the flatter OP run, you can see clearly how most of the 51 ensmebles are deeper with the trough....this is now at 120 hours, so the ensembles are going to be gaining some pretty good skill from here on out until about 60-72h when the OP should be the best thing to use.

Mar8_00z_Euroensembles.png

The EC ensmebles continue to be more tightly clustered....the GEFS for some reason have been terribly wild, though he 06z suite started to cluster a little bit better with fewer cutters in NY.

that's quite the cluster GEFS is not bad and not the cluster fuk it was
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

that's quite the cluster GEFS is not bad and not the cluster fuk it was

 

 

Yeah there's still some spread as you can see, but its not ridiculous like sometimes it is at 120 hours...I'd like to see the spread on the base of that trough get pinched into a about a 200 mile wide cluster by tonight...and not like 400. Though you can see there's a bit of a denser concentration near the OH River.

 

And the spread over SNE there is much tighter, so it shows that there is a limit to how amped the downstream ridging gets on this system.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

12Z GFS is rough for Pike-S

 

 

Really? That does not look bad at all for pike region or even into N CT/N RI...unless I'm missing something....BDL is all snow on that. Maybe like S half of CT/RI/SE MA there's a lot of ptype issues.

 

 

Not that these details really matter anyway.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Really? That does not look bad at all for pike region or even into N CT/N RI...unless I'm missing something....BDL is all snow on that. Maybe like S half of CT/RI/SE MA there's a lot of ptype issues.

 

 

Not that these details really matter anyway.

I was thinking it looked ok for us but Brian was probably on his phone.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Really? That does not look bad at all for pike region or even into N CT/N RI...unless I'm missing something....BDL is all snow on that. Maybe like S half of CT/RI/SE MA there's a lot of ptype issues.

 

 

Not that these details really matter anyway.

Meh. 850 0C cuts through half of CT for the event, but I guess if you want to get technically verbatim the actual Pike squeaks out OK.
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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

Yeah you should....the OP Euro has fluctuated between the middle of ensemble guidance and the less amped side of ensmeble guidance...last night, despite the flatter OP run, you can see clearly how most of the 51 ensmebles are deeper with the trough....this is now at 120 hours, so the ensembles are going to be gaining some pretty good skill from here on out until about 60-72h when the OP should be the best thing to use.

 

 

Mar8_00z_Euroensembles.png

 

 

 

 

 

The EC ensmebles continue to be more tightly clustered....the GEFS for some reason have been terribly wild, though he 06z suite started to cluster a little bit better with fewer cutters in NY.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but isn't a majority of this showing the low cutting right across CT through Bos, implying more wet than white or Frz. from at least NH border south?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but isn't a majority of this showing the low cutting right across CT through Bos, implying more wet than white or Frz. from at least NH border south?

 

 

Those are 500mb spaghetti plots, they aren't the low track...the low track would be southeast of those lines.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
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Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but isn't a majority of this showing the low cutting right across CT through Bos, implying more wet than white or Frz. from at least NH border south?

I agree, models always underdo midlevel warming at this range east or south of the 850 low I think in that exact setup most of RI SRN ct and SE mass changes over, may even be predominately liquid in many spots, that said this solution will change 10 more times

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

GGEM brings taint into NNE. Talk about wild model swings!

 

 

That model has kept developing the low further north on the frotn before it sags south until last night when it went way suppressed...at least on this run is flips to snow in the latter stages...but I give the GGEM OP run very little credbility overall right now.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

My takeaway from the 12z gfs and apparently the ggem is that the suppression trend of 0z did not hold continuity very long.

I don't see this event being suppressed I think it may be more suppressed than the GFS shows or the euro has been but I think this is still a central NJ and north event

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I think at this point, I would be more concerned about ptype in SNE than a miss. There's still a lot of time...but you look for two things when forecasting at this range....you look for ensemble clustrering/consistency from run to run and you look for synoptic features to give you clues about what is more likely in terms of a trend.

 

I think both of these at the moment favor a track inside of the BM. We'll see how things trend...a lot will depend on the rockies energy too.

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