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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

06z gfs Defintely shifted north. These are the model Fluctuations we are going to see.

 

Big hit for Boston. 

 

Selfishly hoping to see a few more northerly solutions show up over the next couple days on the op runs.  Doesn't have to be consistent, just show us up here that we can be in the game once in a while with a big northward run, lol.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Big hit for Boston.

Selfishly hoping to see a few more northerly solutions show up over the next couple days on the op runs. Doesn't have to be consistent, just show us up here that we can be in the game once in a while with a big northward run, lol.

Well I'm still worried about ptype more than suppression and so should everyone south of I-90.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Well I'm still worried about ptype more than suppression and so should everyone south of I-90.

 

Haha, and we are still worried about suppression.  The GEFS ensembles have certainly a lot more members on the 00z/6z runs that are suppressed or almost non-storms than they did yesterday.  *Remember when I say suppressed, I'm speaking here locally, not for like PVD, haha.

 

The evolution of the H5 trough though doesn't look like something that would allow a big enough amplification for a too much NW track on this morning's runs at least.  Its such a progressive looking trough with a good deal of energy left in the SW US.  Hopefully we can see some of that eject more in the coming days to try for a better phase and earlier in its trek across the US.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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I am not for this one, Actually, I feel pretty good on seeing a decent event up here, Not the same set up as the last storm

 

I'd feel good in your spot.  You and dendrite seem to be just far enough NW in these coastal events even if they stay south.  I just watch the track once a low gets off the NJ coast...if it goes ENE we are fringed but you guys in SW ME can still be far enough east to catch the good stuff.  That's been the issue with a lot of these...not having enough northward component to the track once they hit the coast.  I guess that's a product of having no blocking downstream to really amplify the flow?

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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I'd feel good in your spot. You and dendrite seem to be just far enough NW in these coastal events even if they stay south. I just watch the track once a low gets off the NJ coast...if it goes ENE we are fringed but you guys in SW ME can still be far enough east to catch the good stuff. That's been the issue with a lot of these...not having enough northward component to the track once they hit the coast. I guess that's a product of having no blocking downstream to really amplify the flow?

Yeah, Flow has been progressive we really have not had those systems that dig the troff to the coast to spin up a low with a more SSW/NNE trajectory, Perfect track for here and decent one for you is an ack to bay of fundy

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Haha, and we are still worried about suppression.  The GEFS ensembles have certainly a lot more members on the 00z/6z runs that are suppressed or almost non-storms than they did yesterday.  *Remember when I say suppressed, I'm speaking here locally, not for like PVD, haha.

 

 

which ones?

Cluster 1 7 Member (35 %)

 

Cluster 3 5 Member (25 %)

 

 

Cluster 2 4 Member (20 %)

 

Cluster 4 4 Member (20 %)

 

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
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"Op" or "control" = operational model run, in contrast to that model's ensembles.

Makes sense.

 

Far SE sections

Does not makes sense, but thanks.

 

Without looking it up, the ensemble control is akin to a lower resution of the op run. I don't recall if the parameters or physics are changed.

 

Wes answered this question in the ma forum earlier this year. The control run is the only ensemble with identical initial conditions as the op run but at the standard lower resolution as the other members. The usefulness is when the op and control show large differences in the medium range. It's a clue that the higher res may be overdoing something. 

I kind of get but, still a bit fuzzy.

Thanks.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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tim kelly seems to think big for midweek, i know r/s line is a ways away from being pinned down but i like that he feels cold air will be pouring into system and he thinks contrast between high and lp will produce ocean gales....i like seeing him on board

Just like he was on board for the major hurricanes this summer. I'd rather have James Nichols on board.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
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Makes sense.

Does not makes sense, but thanks.

I kind of get but, still a bit fuzzy.

Thanks.

My layman understanding:

Ensembles are, as a general statement, run off of the same input data as the operation run, but at a lower resolution, which means less calculations are used to produce the model output.

In addition, all but one ensemble member has a) various atmospheric input data, and B) output formulas for various physical processes, "tweaked," the idea being that it shows sensitivity to slight errors or changes in input conditions and the inexactness of the model's ouput formulas.

These tweaks are called perturbations, which is a separate mathematical concept of finding an approximate solution to complex (unsolvable) problems by making small changes to the exact solution of a similar, but simpler (solvable) problem. For the ECENS, the tweaks are dynamically generated based on atmospheric conditions that are most rapidly changing.

The ensemble member that has no tweaks to the inputs, but is still run at the lower resolution, is the control. The main purpose of the control member is to create the lower resolution model run to which the tweaks are applied to get the rest of the ensemble members.

The control run can be compared to the operational run to see only the effects of lowering the model resolution. The control run is also useful for comparison to the tweaked ensemble members to isolate sensitivity to just the tweaks, isolated from the effects of being run at the lower resolution from the operational model.

But overall, there is nothing inherently special about the control member as a standalone forecast tool. It is simply a lower resolution version of its operational counterpart, and that statistically means it is less accurate than the operational run.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

make sure you don't post just one snap shot in time,

 

Huh?  Isn't that what you just did?

 

These were yesterday's 12z GEFS... lets just see what today's look like.  There were about 5 members that brought a low up near NY State prior to being pushed east.  I'm curious how many today will make it up that far NW before going ENE.

 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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So my point was when people started blasting the gfs, wait to make sure it's not on its own, while the 0z solution was extreme suppression as was cmc vs the rest of the suite, the idea from 0z was less of a big wind up system, Doesn't mean it's right but that's what 0z showed. Thankfully, GEFS and EC ensembles were better which is a huge flag.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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I am not for this one, Actually, I feel pretty good on seeing a decent event up here, Not the same set up as the last storm

 

 

Yeah you should....the OP Euro has fluctuated between the middle of ensemble guidance and the less amped side of ensmeble guidance...last night, despite the flatter OP run, you can see clearly how most of the 51 ensmebles are deeper with the trough....this is now at 120 hours, so the ensembles are going to be gaining some pretty good skill from here on out until about 60-72h when the OP should be the best thing to use.

 

 

Mar8_00z_Euroensembles.png

 

 

 

 

 

The EC ensmebles continue to be more tightly clustered....the GEFS for some reason have been terribly wild, though he 06z suite started to cluster a little bit better with fewer cutters in NY.

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