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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

Incidentally the cmc is nearly identical to gfs fwiw.

 

Caution flags abound this far out.  Eyewall and PF are gun shy with precedent as their master and I empathize.

I'm kind of feeling this one for CNE and NNE but my "intuition" is up against this winter's overall Eastern preference with regards to snow jackpots.

Hoping the EURO scores it's coup with this one.

I'll be much more invested by this time tomorrow.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
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ecwmf model has had  heavy snow for six runs for the sne / ny and penn and the track has not change not that much for four days .

Blizzy, you're an original but your forecasts tend to blow. That doesn't mean I don't love you as much as Steve D does.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

We'll probably end up with a midland event out of this, but the pattern surgence may also offer more threats as we've discussed all along.   

 

Season hell-bent on nickel dimers

 

When in doubt bet the trend. It's not scientific method but it seems to work out more often than not with regards to winter weather.

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Juliancolton

Juliancolton

Posted
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Actually, the main s/w is coming ashore more pronounced. The disturbance over OK and TX is also stronger than before, reminiscent of how the 18z GFS handled it. I'm tempted to make an early call that the solution will remain amped-up based on the 500 mb field, but it largely depends on how much energy makes it out of the Rockies... will know in a few frames.

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Juliancolton

Juliancolton

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Yeah, I'm not sure staying up for this was the best idea, heh. Still, I think the intense negativity in the NYC thread is unfounded; it's a warmer and flatter solution, but it's still 990 mb off the NJ coast with plenty of moisture. If we account for inherent background noise, there's still room for an impressive storm.

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joey2002

joey2002

Posted
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Yeah, I'm not sure staying up for this was the best idea, heh. Still, I think the intense negativity in the NYC thread is unfounded; it's a warmer and flatter solution, but it's still 990 mb off the NJ coast with plenty of moisture. If we account for inherent background noise, there's still room for an impressive storm.

 

Definitely still a good solution for this area, it's too bad we're still 120 hours out, lol.  

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joey2002

joey2002

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Yeah, it remains the most significant depicted storm of tonight's guidance. A lot of sleet or ice verbatim, I think? About an inch of QPF south of a line from Boston to Hartford to Danbury, with 3/4" for everybody south of the Pike.

 

0c line at 850mb never really makes it past the south coast, so I think it looks like mostly snow verbatim.  

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