Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[weathafella]

Given the system dynamics we favor the euro on this case. Euro has been consistent for days...reminds me of its performance from previous years...

Gfs led the way for the past several systems fwiw.

[weathafella]

Given the system dynamics we favor the euro on this case. Euro has been consistent for days...reminds me of its performance from previous years...

What specifically?

[SnowMan]

Gfs led the way for the past several systems fwiw.

Southern stream and phasing systems?

[weathafella]

Southern stream and phasing systems?

Gfs said no, and was correct. To be clear, euro and it's ensembles have been all over the place in track of this. 0z you had a rainstorm,12Z nice snow. Let's see what this brings. But beware of phasing in the current pattern.

[SnowMan]

What specifically?

What do you mean? The euro has consistently shown a solid it. Not saying that is how it will end up but I am confident it wins this one. For the record I am all set with snow unless it is a big storm...not trying to wish cast this one. Whatever happens is fine with me - even if it is rain or no storm. But the euro and it's ensembles are encouraging.

[weathafella]

What do you mean? The euro has consistently shown a solid it. Not saying that is how it will end up but I am confident it wins this one. For the record I am all set with snow unless it is a big storm...not trying to wish cast this one. Whatever happens is fine with me - even if it is rain or no storm. But the euro and it's ensembles are encouraging.

. We're 6 days out. Euro had been a rainstorm, snowstorm with coastal taint, ensembles have had a rainstorm and snowstorm 12 hours apart. We're 6 days out. Verification scores aren't great for any model.

[Juliancolton]

I'm never good with recalling model performance wrt specific events, but I want to say this is relatively similar to 2/13 with the Euro set on an intense system while other models bounced around in the day 5/6 range. I do believe the Euro has proven overzealous with several other events in the mid-range, though. Could be totally off the mark.

[SnowMan]

. We're 6 days out. Euro had been a rainstorm, snowstorm with coastal taint, ensembles have had a rainstorm and snowstorm 12 hours apart. We're 6 days out. Verification scores aren't great for any model.

Agreed. I'm not saying anything is set in stone. Just I would lean towards euro for this system. I could be totally wrong though.

[weathafella]

I'm never good with recalling model performance wrt specific events, but I want to say this is relatively similar to 2/13 with the Euro set on an intense system while other models bounced around in the day 5/6 range. I do believe the Euro has proven overzealous with several other events in the mid-range, though. Could be totally off the mark.

Euro locked and loaded in February 2013... a masterpiece.

[weathafella]

All I know is the triple A models are misses tonight. The big league starts a bit before 1AM

[JC-CT]

Just saw the GFS, yikes. And fella, the GFS is a minor league model? Come on now...

[weathafella]

Just saw the GFS, yikes. And fella, the GFS is a minor league model? Come on now...

Ok the Cubs?

[weathafella]

Incidentally the cmc is nearly identical to gfs fwiw.

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS = worst continuity 

 

Not sure why this model really seems to be going out of its way to diminish this thing. Huh. Interesting. I was imagining this run, thinking how good it could be, but then I said, 'watch it come in some flat, annoyingly non-conformist evolution'; I'm fascinated just how well it did just that, with panache!

[weathafella]

GFS = worst continuity 

 

Not sure why this model really seems to be going out of its way to diminish this thing. Huh. Interesting. I was imagining this run, thinking how good it could be, but then I said, 'watch it come in some flat, annoyingly non-conformist evolution'; I'm fascinated just how well it did just that, with panache!

John, the typically inaccurate GGEM is just like it.

[JC-CT]

GFS is a good model that simply should not be run past 120 hours.

 

Edit: or at least not 4 times a day.

[Ginx snewx]

For southern ct I am sure you will. Congrats.

if I lived there

[Typhoon Tip]

John, the typically inaccurate GGEM is just like it.

 

I saw that.. but the GGEM was weird with a mere fropa earlier, too.  

 

This is like these operational models battling their own ensemble-based teleconnectors.   

[Ginx snewx]

Given the system dynamics we favor the euro on this case. Euro has been consistent for days...reminds me of its performance from previous years...

oui oui no speak da french, we disagree

[Blizz]

The GGEM looks better precip wise though, no? I mean its far south but at least there is still a storm... Correct or am I looking at something different?

[JC-CT]

if I lived there

 

It's all the same to foreigners

[Typhoon Tip]

Maybe this is one of those scenarios where the 40% wins over the majority.  

[SnowMan]

if I lived there

Anything south of mass border is the tropics...just giving u a hard time...don't be sensitive lol

[weathafella]

GEFS are better. Judging from the wide mslp it appears spread is abundant.

[JC-CT]

Anything south of mass border is the tropics...just giving u a hard time...don't be sensitive lol

 

That's what they say about Amherst in Bangor.

[Ginx snewx]

It's all the same to foreigners

I always thought Amherst was where Dr J went to school in Mass

[weathafella]

I'm happy with the GEFS look.

[Ginx snewx]

Anything south of mass border is the tropics...just giving u a hard time...don't be sensitive lol

huh,

[Ginx snewx]

GEFS are better. Judging from the wide mslp it appears spread is abundant.

so your saying it's an Oprah run>

[weathafella]

GEFS qpf hour 138 0.75+ all of sne and 0.5+ rest of New England.