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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week


Typhoon Tip

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  On 3/10/2014 at 11:08 AM, CoastalWx said:

Good lesson as to why past does not equal future.

Are you specifically referring to the disaster last week? lol

 

Yeah, 2 completely different things.          I initially though this thing would slide to the east and maybe scrape. I though the PV would be pushing more W to E and would muscle this over.    I was not thinking supression south

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Box playing the data-sparse-Pacific card heavily:

 

As the parent system was still over the Pacific at the time of initial conditions...insufficient confidence to move to categorical probability of precipitation. Instead we have held at high-end likely...68 to 74 percent. The parent system moves ashore this morning...and so one would
expect confidence to increase during the day.
...
This analysis is of course based on the 00z models...and as noted earlier this could change as the parent system moves into the North American weather balloon domain. A headline may eventually be needed when forecast confidence increases. 

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  On 3/10/2014 at 11:33 AM, wxsniss said:

Box playing the data-sparse-Pacific card heavily:

As the parent system was still over the Pacific at the time of initial conditions...insufficient confidence to move to categorical probability of precipitation. Instead we have held at high-end likely...68 to 74 percent. The parent system moves ashore this morning...and so one would

expect confidence to increase during the day.

...

This analysis is of course based on the 00z models...and as noted earlier this could change as the parent system moves into the North American weather balloon domain. A headline may eventually be needed when forecast confidence increases.

Overrated.

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  On 3/10/2014 at 11:44 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Help me Obi-Wan-not-sampled, you're our only hope

 

Other then getting an actual pressure reading, I think with today's technology, They can see where the s/w is located by satellite and water vapor imagery easily enough.

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  On 3/10/2014 at 11:33 AM, wxsniss said:

Box playing the data-sparse-Pacific card heavily:

 

As the parent system was still over the Pacific at the time of initial conditions...insufficient confidence to move to categorical probability of precipitation. Instead we have held at high-end likely...68 to 74 percent. The parent system moves ashore this morning...and so one would

expect confidence to increase during the day.

...

This analysis is of course based on the 00z models...and as noted earlier this could change as the parent system moves into the North American weather balloon domain. A headline may eventually be needed when forecast confidence increases. 

 

How can they not feel confident in categorical POPs?  I can understand p-type uncertainties, but I would be pretty confident that you could go 100% POPs as something will fall from the sky.

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  On 3/10/2014 at 11:50 AM, powderfreak said:

How can they not feel confident in categorical POPs?  I can understand p-type uncertainties, but I would be pretty confident that you could go 100% POPs as something will fall from the sky.

 

Yeah, If your tossing out probs and are not real confident then they should go with a lower number

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  On 3/10/2014 at 11:55 AM, dryslot said:

lol, Keeping H85 to my SE.......... :), That run we were playing with fire

 

That was an over-amped run... but honestly at this point, I'd say ride the Euro until proven otherwise.  Its been pretty rock steady and the others seem to be coming somewhere in the vicinity of its solution its had for several runs.

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  On 3/10/2014 at 12:00 PM, powderfreak said:

That was an over-amped run... but honestly at this point, I'd say ride the Euro until proven otherwise.  Its been pretty rock steady and the others seem to be coming somewhere in the vicinity of its solution its had for several runs.

 

Euro is always my model of choice, Even when it had a few hiccups this winter, I did not even totally write off its solutions then because of its record

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