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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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This was originally posted in the March thread, but upon further reflection ...perhaps it should be weeded out into it's own, as it has a lot of what I consider to be educational value in teleconnector recognition/usage.

This signal began appearing in the teleconnectors first as an emerging/strengthening MJO in the Phase 7-8-1 wave spaces (see below), and since, the more middle latitude sectors have begun falling into sync with the longer term linear correlated phase state(s)

CDC/CPC agreed upon PNA spike soaring over +3SD, temporally collocated with an NAO fall from that's > 2 SD right across the ides of the month. Meanwhile, the MJO is even stronger in phase 8 from now through the 15th leading up to that date... (see below)

It really is a pretty fantastic teleconnector convergence and almost a hemispheric syncing toward unleashing something large. How large and what, still to be determined.

We'll see how it flops out of the erroneous runs that will be rife for the time being.

NAVGEM ... last 3 cycles are nailing impressive stream interaction and signaling possible massive bomb -- rather than roll-eyes and make fun, folks who know better would raise an eye-brow when a model with a specific progression bias overcomes it's native short-coming to express a solution that goes against, but one that fits into fore said teleconnector arguments.

The Euro solution should be taken seriously... The 12z GFS while not on board migrated substantially into this amplitude with better expressed western ridge and digging jet into the Lakes region during the same time...

post-904-0-97229300-1394046091_thumb.jpg

post-904-0-64957300-1394046112_thumb.jpg

**This is one of those times when an extended lead may carry more weight than typical. While "deterministic" forecast cannot be made, the signal, as is, is a whopper. Caution though; this doesn't speak to details like who gets affect, nor by exactly what. THAT is impossible at this juncture.

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cja1987

cja1987

Posted
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Nice writeup Tip!

 

Nice to see hemispheric support for some of the OP solutions we are starting to see for next week. It is what we have been lacking despite plenty of cold air and "chances" at light to moderate events over the past few weeks. Southern stream bowling balls, northern stream clippers are hit or miss, phase or not here today, DC tomorrow...

 

This is the pattern we need to give us the shot at a big one. If we can get something going, it will effect the entire eastern seaboard. What the sensible WX would be at this point, who knows?

 

On a weenie note, Im getting the feeling next week is do or die for the SNE CP snowfall wise, I want "the big one", negative departures notwithstanding, our pack is on borrowed time and its not worth heming and hawing over potential nickle and dimes that never happen or will be gone in a day. Its time to put up or shut up and root for warmth.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Nice writeup Tip!

 

Nice to see hemispheric support for some of the OP solutions we are starting to see for next week. It is what we have been lacking despite plenty of cold air and "chances" at light to moderate events over the past few weeks. Southern stream bowling balls, northern stream clippers are hit or miss, phase or not here today, DC tomorrow...

 

This is the pattern we need to give us the shot at a big one. If we can get something going, it will effect the entire eastern seaboard. What the sensible WX would be at this point, who knows?

 

On a weenie note, Im getting the feeling next week is do or die for the SNE CP snowfall wise, I want "the big one", negative departures notwithstanding, our pack is on borrowed time and its not worth heming and hawing over potential nickle and dimes that never happen or will be gone in a day. Its time to put up or shut up and root for warmth.

 

thanks -

 

Yeah, it does break seasonal trend wrt having to time/space nickle and dime events just perfectly. What this signal is, is a large slow moving phased sort of ordeal...  It sure is also a nice elixir for those who pretty much have had it with the ennui -- -solid week of speculation art, in coming... That's the fun stuff... Unfortunately, we have to move the clocks into "too late to stay up for the 00z run" time of the year...but I digress (haha)

 

Also, as far as the CP... one thing you guys got going for you (if you want colder solutions...) is that the SSTs are pretty anomalously cold.  I mean, ...32F   really?   wow.  granted, it's more upper 30'ish more seaward of CC Bay and so forth, but with any polar high parked favorably, you probably could do fairly well even with a bit more of an easterly component given to the state of the environment.  

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Heisy

Heisy

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Coastalwx/Tip thoughts?

 

I know its out there in range, but the main difference between the 12z EURO & 00z EURO is the timing between the shortwave coming ashore and the wave riding along the polar jet. I know no one gives 2 ****s what I have to say, but as a wx model observer for most of my life I've become keen on picking up difference during model runs which eventually dictate how the model portrays a storm. This was the biggest difference between the 2 runs...

 

Look at 144 hrs on the 12z EURO @ 500mb, and compare it to 156 hours on the 00z EURO. The 12z had the shortwave out west a little bit more delayed.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Pretty sweet look on the EC ensemble too. 

 

 

Uncertainty on the timing it looks like...but even the ens mean has quite a bit of QPF for that far out. Should be interesting to see what happens by the weekend.

 

We haven't had a big hitter get inside of 100 hours in a while...prob since 2/13...3/3 sort of got to that point as a moderate event before trending back south...the big solutions on 3/3 were more like 132-144.

 

 

At least there are some large scale waves in place to really support this one.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Uncertainty on the timing it looks like...but even the ens mean has quite a bit of QPF for that far out. Should be interesting to see what happens by the weekend.

 

We haven't had a big hitter get inside of 100 hours in a while...prob since 2/13...3/3 sort of got to that point as a moderate event before trending back south...the big solutions on 3/3 were more like 132-144.

 

 

At least there are some large scale waves in place to really support this one.

 

You can tell there must be some spread. It looks like some members develop a wave along the front as it slips south, but many members must develop the wave off the Delmarva based on the overall look on the mean.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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GFS took a step towards EURO in my eyes, It looks like the shortwave is a bit too positively tilted to form a storm, but the cold setup is better over SE Canada. 

 

Yes ... and a trend that really began on the 12z guidance, now a bit more...  Here we see multiple impulse involvement potential via the nexus of two streams, polar and southern.  By no means etched in stone, but this type harmonics in the flow should be easier to find given the aforementioned concepts.

 

post-904-0-92337900-1394058853_thumb.jpg

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Excellent write up Tip.  Unfortunately only 28 more runs of the GFS/GEFS and 14 more runs of the ECMWF/Ens.  Yipee.

 

Yeah, I know...that's the trouble with these early lead signals.  It's exciting and all to read about the 'laying of the foundation', but when one is done reading the article it's a feeling of, 'okay, now what.'

 

You could essentially move on with your life before this thing works itself out - haha.  

 

Also, this could also split into two events across a general favorable time.. There's lots of possibilities on the table.  

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