Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 What it did last night doesn't mean anything, we're 24 hours closer to the event. Plus, considering the 18z GFS was the only glimmer of hope and now it has backed off of that idea, kinda sucks.... In fact I'd argue that the GFS has been pretty good. It NEVER brought out western energy as one piece while the EURO kept insisting all of it would come out. GFS won in that regard since it looks like the energy will be splitting. Not arguing, but not one single piece of numerical data has any snow except maybe some back end snow showers/flurries for Philly. Not saying the burbs don't have a shot though. I'm enjoying your posts though! Understood Think I liked you better as Bryan Cranston...... we will hang out,,, with your crew here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_f120_us.html Kate Smith eat your heart out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Looks like most of the models as of now are showing rain with some possible back end snow for our area. Looks good for inland Pa, NY, and New England. Longer range still has snow possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD418 AM EDT SUN MAR 09 2014 AS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE FCST PERIODAPPEARS... THE LAST DAY/TUES BECOMES QUITE COMPLICATED. THE MAINSHORT WAVE TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO SPLIT...AS SOME DYNAMICS DIVE SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... WHILETHE BULK OF FORCING PROCEEDS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CENTRALPLAINS/MID MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE... A SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF UPPERHEIGHTS FROM WEST CENTRAL CANADA AND A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILLSPREAD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE PRECIP SHIELD INITIALLY WILLBE A WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN FOR POSSIBLYLIGHT TO MDT SNOW FROM SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA. THIS OVERRUNNINGSNOW WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE ROBUST POSSIBLY PHASINGSYSTEM... AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRALPLAINS AND SLIDES TO THE SRN OH RIVER. THUS A HEALTHY DEFORMATIONZONE/DYNAMIC COOLING PRECIP SHIELD WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ANDEXPAND. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM NERN KS/NRN MO TO NRNIN/NWRN OH AND SRN LOWER MI OR AN AXIS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. WITH SOMANY FACETS TO BE DETERMINED AND SOME SPREAD WITH THE GUIDANCE...WPC STAYED VERY CLOSE TO A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF ONJUST 4 INCH HEAVY SNOW PROBS. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd clusters----southern slant http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 AS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE FCST PERIODAPPEARS... THE LAST DAY/TUES BECOMES QUITE COMPLICATED. THE MAINSHORT WAVE TRANSITIONING THROUGH THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO SPLIT...AS SOME DYNAMICS DIVE SOUTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION I will track it with graphics 200mb jet streak is not that quick- atm (EURO has slower guidance) http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm6&zoom=&time= http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/99fwbgus_init_2014030900.gif MT HOLLY IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP THAT FALLSON WED WILL BE RAIN, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREMENW, BUT AS THE LOW MOVES TO OUR NE WED NIGHT AND COLD AIR MOVES INTHE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE. THEN THEAGE OLD QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS LEFT WHEN THE COLDAIR ARRIVES. THE CMC AND GFS HAVE THE PRECIP BASICALLY OVER BY13/06, WHILE THE ECMWF LINGERS IT LONGER, WHICH IS NOT A SURPRISE.CERTAINLY, IF THE ECMWF SOLN WERE CORRECT IT WOULD HAVE MOREMOISTURE IN THE COLD AIR. THE LOW WILL BRING A GOOD CFP WITH IT AS WELL. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off don't bash me for overkill..... I just love to track in small steps and maybe some of you here ---- as well dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1141 AM EDT SUN MAR 09 2014VALID 12Z WED MAR 12 2014 - 12Z SUN MAR 16 2014...HEAVY SNOW DAYS 3 AND 4 FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE INTERIORNORTHEAST...THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY CONVERGED ON THE TRACK OF THE COMPLEX WAVECROSSING THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH ITS MOST MARKEDSENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT BEING A STRIPE OF HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTHERNILLINOIS AND INDIANA THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. A CHANGEOVERFROM RAIN TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD GIVE THEPOPULATED AREAS FROM NEW YORK CITY TO PORTLAND A FEW INCHES OFSNOW. A SHARP SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THEWAVE, WITH A LONE DAY--THURSDAY, DAY 4--OF WELL-BELOW-NORMALTEMPERATURES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGIONS AFFECTED BY THE STORM. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd I say colder for more of this storm ....than you might think atm http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f096_us.html never thought this visit would create the dm BLOG!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD GIVE THE POPULATED AREAS FROM NEW YORK CITY TO PORTLAND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. Wrong subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Wrong subforum. Ok then... share it with them!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 New Euro has 60s on Wednesday ahead of the storm. Then maybe an inch or two of snow on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 New Euro has 60s on Wednesday ahead of the storm. Then maybe an inch or two of snow on the back side. par for the course this winter. What are the Thurs temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 par for the course this winter. What are the Thurs temps? Very cold, 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=096 take note of the outlier in MS Next step more south.... snow bomb???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Meh, I was hoping this event would be the snow event to send winter out with a bang, vs something next week...since I will be gone from Saturday the 15th until the following Saturday. This looks like mostly or all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml should I keep posting???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Yes sir. thank you D you have been NAM' ed http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/18/US/namUS_sfc_cthk_084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Keep em coming doorman! That still would be mostly rain for philly though that 540 line is up in the pocs and 850s in the LV. Need that low to go 100 miles south or so to put us in the game. Temps are gonna be in the 50s or 60 before the temps drop im not feeling this one for us the far nw burbs could get some action though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 storm will be way warm for first half for sure....still some room for it to trend better towards the end of the storm, might end up with a quick burst of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Even if it drops some snow at the end, it probably won't be enough to make up for the snow the warm rain melts on the front end. (let alone the days leading up to the event) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Absolutely DM, even if the NYC forum complains you are MIA who cares. Even during severe season you're always welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Agreed...very interesting and unique analytical graphics!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 here is your 200mb jet-stream trend loop http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm6/wg8dlm6java.html Five Day Movie bottom menu http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm1&zoom=&time you can see how things shift and shape for example the PV placement and strength once you get used to the levels to look at...... as per WPC disco's 500mb 200mb you will never model hug again tip: check off the cube box on the menu to remove the one bad image split flow over TEXAS atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16&parm=ttd# http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l12®ion=us http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif I promised I would see this thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 the navgem courtesy of the NYC metro thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/mslp_f072_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 What does it mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 What does it mean 000 FXUS61 KPHI 110130 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 930 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014 THE DAILIES BELOW... WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY RAIN FOR OUR AREA EXCEPT MAYBE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE EVENT ALONG AND N OF I80 FROM SUSSEX COUNTY INTO THE POCONOS AND EVEN HERE...CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS BELOW AVG DESPITE THE 12Z/10 ECMWF. SREF SNOW ACCUM PROBS HAVE DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 03Z/10. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG PRES FALLS THRU NNJ WILL DRAW COLD SFC AIR SWD BENEATH ABOVE 32F AIR ALOFT POSSIBLY LEADING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE POCONOS LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HUGE COLD AIR ADVECTION FLUX WITH 10MB 3 HR PRES RISES DURING THE EVENING MAY PERMIT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS IN THE 8PM TO 1 AM THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SPOTTY COVERINGS OF SNOW WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO I78 BUT AM NOT AT ALL CONVINCED SINCE NW FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Shortwave Energy ATM http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=eastpac&sat=wg9∏=dlm1&zoom=&time looking for clues.... as I track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Bashed by a pro -met says.... its time to stop! thanks for all the good feedback hope the links make it fun to check things out for yourself tommy e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 000 FXUS61 KPHI 110130 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 930 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014 POCONOS LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HUGE COLD AIR ADVECTION FLUX WITH 10MB 3 HR PRES RISES DURING THE EVENING MAY PERMIT 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS IN THE 8PM TO 1 AM THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SPOTTY COVERINGS OF SNOW WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO I78 BUT AM NOT AT ALL CONVINCED SINCE NW FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE. latest nam looks even colder and snowier. 1 person viewing this thread...? maybe everybody's in spring fever mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 A_48hrbw (1).gif http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Bashed by a pro -met says.... its time to stop! thanks for all the good feedback hope the links make it fun to check things out for yourself tommy e What? Sorry pal...I liked your perspective of weather and thought it would bring some additional life into the Philadelphia forum. The bashing is pretty lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 latest nam looks even colder and snowier. 1 person viewing this thread...? maybe everybody's in spring fever mode. no we're just realists and know that we won't see accumulating snow south of i78 for example. This is a very warm system and may even involve t-storms. And next week is ots so the fat lady is starting to "warm" up :-) see what I just did there? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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