famartin Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 Euro low track is between GFS and GGEM... just southeast of Philly. Rain for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 This system is trending to less convergance in SE Canada hence warmer. Opposite of the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Hate to sound negative but this isn't looking too good, now to brighten the mood the model suite today all indicate a 17-18 threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Hate to sound negative but this isn't looking too good, now to brighten the mood the model suite today all indicate a 17-18 threat The 264 hr GFS jackpots Philly This winter is far from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Scranton area still looks good, hoping for a nice ski day next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I just joined this site recently but Why does everyone live and die by every single model run? And although it does not look good for snow, bailing on a storm in which the main piece of energy is still in the Pacific is silly. Lotta time, lotta model runs left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 And you have to look back and cherish what a winter we have had. Every week there gave been 1-2 storms that have brought measurable snow to our area. We have yet to have a dry spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The 264 hr GFS jackpots Philly This winter is far from over. What kind of jackpot are we talking here? I refuse to look at GFS past 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 I refuse to look at GFS past 7 days wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 No one lives and dies with one model run, but not one piece of data shows or really has shown snow for our region lately. When looking at all the data and current observations you can usually estimate wave lengths...when I mention a possible winter event 17-18th I'm not taking the GFS at 204 hours at face value...im simply saying that based on the current spacing of the short waves there could be something around that time frame... I dont want to cluster up this thread with this fantasy storm stuff...well see if something is on the table in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The Fanatic of Savage Meteorology VWF asked me to stop in!!!! run the ESRL loops this should make things interesting for you Thanks for the links! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 18 GFS for the north zones of Mt Holly NWS looked positive. 0 Z Runs big as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 OPC 96hrs extrap down to 977mb you think it will pull down some cold air???? http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 18 GFS for the north zones of Mt Holly NWS looked positive. 0 Z Runs big as expected think radiation think radiation with vodka think that complex is just south of Chernobyl!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Thanks Doorman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Thanks for the links! Good stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 A_96hrbw.gif OPC 96hrs extrap down to 977mb you think it will pull down some cold air???? http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrbw.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Yes, can we nudge it south a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Yes, can we nudge it south a bit? Yes we can...KS Yes we can Updated 500mb guidance WPC http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr500.shtml snow is on the menu http://www.usatoday.com/weather/photos/tilt2.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Classic Pineapple Pipeline http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeswest/overview2/color_lrg/latestfull.jpg amazing amount of pull looky behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 COD MET SAT one of the best in the business loop http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=canada-wv-24 a nice big bump on that west coast ridge If we can get 20 members in here I will post my azz off for ya all ... until we see this thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Let's do it Doorman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Thru 72 hrs ridge is slightly stronger out west. Otherwise looks about the same to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 One more of winter's blasts... Let's open the door man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I love doorman's positivity. However, In the WPC 500mb map you posted above, that is not a good track for Philly. The only way that would have worked was if we had a semi block which could of allowed the trough to dig far enough south to close off NE of us for a time...That ain't happening most likely. By the time it is cold enough in the city the precip is out of here. Way too much ridging out ahead of it, and while it does negatively tilt, it does way too late and not deep enough. It might have been a better track in January, but not gonna work in March. Could this change? Maybe, I'm just not seeing it at the moment FOR THE CITY. I do believe the Poconos and the far N/W burbs could see a decent snowfall however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ900 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014 OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTOWEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TOOUR SOUTH, AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONGTHIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHENAS IT MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTOWEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH AT THEBEGINNING OF THIS EVENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS ALL RAIN FORPRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE SNOW MAYREMAIN THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE. AS THE STORM PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST,COLDER AIR WILL START FILTERING IN ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WOULD THENLIKELY BEGIN TRANSITIONING THE REMAINING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW FROMWEST TO EAST BEFORE IT BEGINS TO TAPER OFF.WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HAVE ENDED BY THURSDAY MORNING. ASTHE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTENUP QUITE A BIT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD EASILY GUSTY 25-30 MPH OR HIGHERWEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off I'm not in this world to live up to your expectations and you're not in this world to live up to mine. Bruce Lee https://www.aviationweather.gov/data/obs/sat/intl/ir_ICAO-A_bw.jpg https://www.aviationweather.gov/obs/sat/intl/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Once again, a nice rain storm on the GFS....You don't get snow with a 992mb low over W MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Once again, a nice rain storm on the GFS....You don't get snow with a 992mb low over W MD. didnt the GFS lose this system ....last night at this time???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 didnt the GFS lose the system last night at this time???? What it did last night doesn't mean anything, we're 24 hours closer to the event. Plus, considering the 18z GFS was the only glimmer of hope and now it has backed off of that idea, kinda sucks.... In fact I'd argue that the GFS has been pretty good. It NEVER brought out western energy as one piece while the EURO kept insisting all of it would come out. GFS won in that regard since it looks like the energy will be splitting. Not arguing, but not one single piece of numerical data has any snow except maybe some back end snow showers/flurries for Philly. Not saying the burbs don't have a shot though. I'm enjoying your posts though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 GFS is all over the place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 GFS is all over the place... And that's putting it lightly Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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