famartin Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Euro has been showing a storm this time, GGEM too, even hints of something from the GFS. Latest Euro and GGEM are a bit warm/northwest, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Ray, I think you may have jinxed the storm now since you started the thread. If you want to delete it ill pm katodog and have him/her start it. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Euro has been showing a storm this time, GGEM too, even hints of something from the GFS. Latest Euro and GGEM are a bit warm/northwest, though. Posted it in other threads, but Ray notice the difference in speed between the 00z/12z EURO with the wave coming on shore (that eventually spawns this threat)...the 12z was def. faster and this didn't allow the HP to form in time for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I'm not buying it...yet. The euro and ggem have led us down this road before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Charles123 Will I have off from school? We should, it's dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Not looking at runs till Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm not buying it...yet. The euro and ggem have led us down this road before. Ralph, obviously no one is "buying it" at this range. Lighten up brotha. It's the last feasible big threat of the year. It is our hobby, track it! Check out Tip's thread in the NE forum, fun read. Guess what the #1 analog showing up for the EURO is? 3/13/93 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's the last feasible big threat of the year. That we know of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Ralph, obviously no one is "buying it" at this range. Lighten up brotha. It's the last feasible big threat of the year. It is our hobby, track it! Check out Tip's thread in the NE forum, fun read. Guess what the #1 analog showing up for the EURO is? 3/13/93 .trust me I'll be tracking it. You should know me better :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not being negative but we pretty much need a night time event at this point for accumulation if anything happens....unless low clouds/heavy precip and temps in the 20s/low 30s during the day. There's a reason why the avg temp is jumping a degree every two/three days or so. Sun is brutal once mid March comes around....easily could have a tan/burn by early-mid April. Just want to jump into 2nd place all-time snow totals...don't care how it happens. A+ winter either way though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Ray, I think you may have jinxed the storm now since you started the thread. If you want to delete it ill pm katodog and have him/her start it. What do you think? Nuh uh. If Ray started it then its the real deal! He is generally ultra weather conservative. This is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Nuh uh. If Ray started it then its the real deal! He is generally ultra weather conservative. This is good. In fairness, the last few I started haven't worked out so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 12z Euro still shows potent storm for late work week next week. Very strong but a little warm for snow at this point. Tons of time for changes obviously so could trend better for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The NYC Sub forum is going bananas already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 The NYC Sub forum is going bananas already. This topic has 13 replies (well, 14 as soon as I hit post)... the NYC thread has 13 PAGES of replies (with 35 each)... so 35 times as many replies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 This topic has 13 replies (well, 14 as soon as I hit post)... the NYC thread has 13 PAGES of replies (with 35 each)... so 35 times as many replies. Much of it is infighting...it is becoming exhausting reading/sorting through quality posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Latest Wxsim has 6" of snow on the ground with Heavy Snow still falling at 5pm Wednesday PM - temps in the upper 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Latest Wxsim has 6" of snow on the ground with Heavy Snow still falling at 5pm Wednesday PM - temps in the upper 20'spaul, what is the range of Wxsim? Does it have any biases or have an optimum forecast range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Gfs is weaker and therefore colder. Majoriry of precip at night. Decent run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Pretty pointless to look at exact details of model runs right now - wait until at least Sunday to do that. All that matters is that the storm stays on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toprod Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Addict Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Addict Good point. It does seem like the GFS is on drugs sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 0Z models:GFS: Southeasterly and cold, 5-10" for the areaEuro: Middle of the road with rain to snow, 3-6" for I-95 (more NW)GGEM: Northwest and warm, mainly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Pretty pointless to look at exact details of model runs right now - wait until at least Sunday to do that. All that matters is that the storm stays on the models.Right-O. Why do I have the feeling that this system in the end will be some non phased sheared out mess? Probably better for snow down this way. Actually the 6z gfs isn't too bad. The trend I'm liking on the gfs is for the storm to hit at night. That's always a plus in mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Right-O. Why do I have the feeling that this system in the end will be some non phased sheared out mess? Probably better for snow down this way. Actually the 6z gfs isn't too bad. The trend I'm liking on the gfs is for the storm to hit at night. That's always a plus in mid March. especially after we lose that hour of darkness to daylight savings time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 especially after we lose that hour of darkness to daylight savings time.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Little amatuer-ish discussion! lol.... Going into the 12z runs, here is what I hope to see happen. This is last night's 00z EURO run @ 120 hours. There are 3 key components. We have the main shortwave that crashes into the Western coast and migrates eastward represented by the DIAMOND. We have the polar jet shortwave that is our cold air deliverer represented by the SQUARE. We also have another player which is the leftover energy from the weekend system represented by the CIRCLE. The square is very important. There are a few options how this could play out, but the BEST solution for us would be if the square energy races out ahead of the incoming storms, because behind this shortwave is where the HP builds in. If it races out ahead we'd get good confluence which could yield a snowier outcome for us. The GFS has been splitting the DIAMOND shortwave into 2 separate pieces of energy. It also isn't showing the interaction between the CIRCLE & DIAMOND pieces of energy which the EURO does. When viewing the 12z data, focus on these 3 pieces of energy to see their timing, strength, and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This topic has 13 replies (well, 14 as soon as I hit post)... the NYC thread has 13 PAGES of replies (with 35 each)... so 35 times as many replies. So with nothing better to do I analyzed the NYC sub forum posts on the storm next week. This include 17 pages totaling 572 posts and 80 posters including 8 red taggers. Included are the top 10 username # posts % yanksfan27 112 20 highzenberg 47 8 snow88 40 7 redmk6gli 30 5 snowski14 29 5 bluewave 28 5 pazz083 24 4 pbgfi 22 4 doorman 14 2 nybliz44 13 2 Total 62% red taggers 15 3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Not much change in the gfs. Still on the slow, weak and cold side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I am fairly certain we want the euro to come in less amped up like the last system. Good thing so far is we havent been in the bullseye yet :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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