pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 There is plenty of data in that chart and when have we ever used 10000 year data for our weather records? He's right though, the peak is a result of an insufficient period of record. The frequency distribution should eventually fit the Gaussian (normal) distribution according to the central limit theorem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Being in the bullseye 6 days out only spells déjà vu to me, I guess all that really matters at this point is there is a storm on the board.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It doesn't matter what the gfs shows because it's still too far out to take seriously. Things could rapidly change and I just saw the gfs for this and I'm not comfortable where we sit. You want the cold to come in solidly before the storm comes, and there's too much risk with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 There is plenty of data in that chart and when have we ever used 1000 year data for our weather records? It's well known that there is a snowfall max here in Mid-March and a much smaller one here in early April. What meteorological reason would there be for there to be consistently more snow on March 17th than March 10th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Being in the bullseye 6 days out only spells déjà vu to me, I guess all that really matters at this point is there is a storm on the board.. We aren't in the bullseye. 12z GGEM has a massive lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 He's right though, the peak is a result of an insufficient period of record. The frequency distribution should eventually fit the Gaussian (normal) distribution according to the central limit theorem. So you could apply that to all our other records since they only go bak to the late 1800's if you are using that as a way to determine practical weather records here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 12z GGEM has some light activity here Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 So you could apply that to all our other records since they only go bak to the late 1800's if you are using that as a way to determine practical weather records here. What point are you trying to make? It'd be just as inaccurate as saying statistically March 13th is 0.4F warmer than March 12th just because that's what the averages show (made up example). We don't do that, and we also don't believe there to be a statistically significant peak on March 17th vs. March 10th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 What point are you trying to make? It'd be just as inaccurate as saying statistically March 13th is 0.4F warmer than March 12th just because that's what the averages show (made up example). We don't do that, and we also don't believe there to be a statistically significant peak on March 17th vs. March 10th... No point other to show the frequency of snowfall on various dates throughout the year. You realize we get more snow in February here even though the temperature is warmer than January. Not sure why this is a surprise to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I guess the whole too cold to snow idea applies in January as many places in New England don't see their heaviest snowfall during the coldest month but later on like mid February through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's probably around 0.05 on the coastal plain. Not tryin to be a jack a$$, and maybe I have this wrong- but if the chances of accumulating snow in mid march on the coastal plain was .05% wouldn't that make it a once in like 200 year event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not tryin to be a jack a$$, and maybe I have this wrong- but if the chances of accumulating snow in mid march on the coastal plain was .05% wouldn't that make it a once in like 200 year event? Probability is 0.05, so 5%. Probably low estimate there though, it's probably closer to 15% (1 in every 7ish years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 No point other to show the frequency of snowfall on various dates throughout the year. You realize we get more snow in February here even though the temperature is warmer than January. Not sure why this is a surprise to anyone. February is a wetter month than January, and it's still cold enough to get a good chunk of that precip as snow, at least the first 3 weeks of Feb. Edit: or maybe they are about the same. Either way, the peak snowfall corresponds pretty closely to the peak cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The problem with developing the wave on the lead wave, is if it ends up being too strong it will go too far inland because the HP in Canada won't have time build in... LIKE the 12z GGEM which has a Lakes storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 February is a wetter month than January, and it's still cold enough to get a good chunk of that precip as snow, at least the first 3 weeks of Feb. Edit: or maybe they are about the same. Either way, the peak snowfall corresponds pretty closely to the peak cold. Also before the past decade March was snowier than December despite being 5-6 degrees warmer on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 February is a wetter month than January, and it's still cold enough to get a good chunk of that precip as snow, at least the first 3 weeks of Feb. Edit: or maybe they are about the same. Either way, the peak snowfall corresponds pretty closely to the peak cold. The other one is very slightly more snow in April over the last 30 year period than November even though the average temperature is 5 degrees warmer in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Probability is 0.05, so 5%. Probably low estimate there though, it's probably closer to 15% (1 in every 7ish years). But he said .05%. That's not 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Probability is 0.05, so 5%. Probably low estimate there though, it's probably closer to 15% (1 in every 7ish years). Brother . I live by probabilities , you are missing a few things . These are not fixed anomalies The probability of when it`s 30 degrees with a mean trough in the East and a Pos on the west shore of Hudson bay with a neg coming through the slot may not change the 150 yr average but it offers an increased chance than if it was 50 degrees with a ridge in the east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 But he said .05%. That's not 5% Jesus, probability is a scale from 0 to 1. 0.05 corresponds to 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The 12z GEFS has 996 low near 40/70 BM. .75"-1.00" total qpf for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Brother . I live by probabilities , you are missing a few things . These are not fixed anomalies The probability of when it`s 30 degrees with a mean trough in the East and a Pos on the west shore of Hudson bay with a neg coming through the slot may not change the 150 yr average but it offers an increased chance than if it was 50 degrees with a ridge in the east . Obviously there are a TON of factors, otherwise weather forecasting would be simple right! All things considered, however, the probability of snow at a given time in March was what the graph was reflecting. It's something you absolutely must consider as we work into the transition periods of the year, given that snow in mid March, statistically speaking, is relatively uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Obviously there are a TON of factors, otherwise weather forecasting would be simple right! All things considered, however, the probability of snow at a given time in March was what the graph was reflecting. It's something you absolutely must consider as we work into the transition periods of the year, given that snow in mid March, statistically speaking, is relatively uncommon. You mean its not easy ? lol . FYI I like this thru the APPS . But what do I know . Or just away from the coast - sorry , not because its March , but because I don`t like systems that come N without blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 You're not hearing me. He wrote ".05%" verbatim. ".05" is 5%. ".05%" isn't! Go back and read his post if you don't believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 You're not hearing me. He wrote ".05%" verbatim. ".05" is 5%. ".05% isn't! Yes he mis-understood what I wrote. What point are you trying to make? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Bottom line it's uncommon getting snowfall by mid March. What more is there to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The 12z GEFS has 996 low near 40/70 BM. .75"-1.00" total qpf for everyone. Looks really nice and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 No, it's the probability of snow being reported on THE given day. On March 14th, the graph appears to indicate approximately a 16% chance of occurring (meaning in the historical record of weather on March 14th, from the 1870s to the present, snow was reported in at least one observation on approximately 16% of the days). The end of the month makes sense, look at the percentile spread. It's all or nothing at that point basically: either there was a massive anomalous snowfall (which from the other graphs you can see by the end of March the probability of snowfall even occurring much less on the ground is around 10%) or there was no snow at all. im pretty sure that is what i said. Obviously 5% is way low, for a March day on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Bottom line it's uncommon getting snowfall by mid March. What more is there to say. it really isn't that uncommon. I will agree that recent March's have had less snow, so perhaps there is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yes he mis-understood what I wrote. What point are you trying to make? Only that i didn't know which tdp146 meant when he posted ".05%". Taken at face value it's not 5% clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.