SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 At this point it's hard to say it will be a strong wrapped up storm. It could very well be smaller pieces ejecting out which could be good for us. Don't even bring climo into this because if that were the case then Virginia would not be seeing more snow than us for March. It's still impossible to determine what will happen but it's really nice having something to track this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It takes nearly the perfect track. A touch more inland and the coast rains, a bit further offshore and inland areas see far less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Hr 150 mod-heavy snow. Looks a lot like euro from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 And the probability of that happening again is infinitesimal. People using these one-time events as proof that some future event has a higher probability of occurring is one of the most common logical fallacies, that being the appeal to possibility. According to this site (https://weatherspark.com/averages/31081/3/New-York-United-States), the probability of snow just being reported by March 14 falls to near 15%. Okay, I'm one of the ones arguing that the coast is not favored here. I'm just using that as an example of what could happen given the right setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 So what about further South towards Phila or is it too warm or too late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Okay, I'm one of the ones arguing that the coast is not favored here. I'm just using that as an example of what could happen given the right setup. There is a ton of cold air that comes into the area as the storm gets together. I disagree with your statement. If the low takes a benchmark track, this will be a storm for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 All areas are 0.50-0.75" QPF this run and it's in and out in about 12-15 hours. Height of the storm is morning through mid day Wednesday. Verbatim it's a 4-8" snowfall. I'd much rather take my chances with a more explosive setup at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 So what about further South towards Phila or is it too warm or too late? Phl looks warm to start. Nw of there looks like all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 And the probability of that happening again is infinitesimal. People using these one-time events as proof that some future event has a higher probability of occurring is one of the most common logical fallacies, that being the appeal to possibility. According to this site (https://weatherspark.com/averages/31081/3/New-York-United-States), the probability of snow just being reported by March 14 falls to near 15%. To be clear, that is the possibility snow will be reported on a given day, not 15% that it will snow again as of March 14. Also interesting is that the average snow depth is at its highest at the end of the month. Of course, March 1888 or 1993 are very rare, but most March's feature accumulating snow in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 There is a ton of cold air that comes into the area as the storm gets together. I disagree with your statement. If the low takes a benchmark track, this will be a storm for the coast. I'm basing my argument off of climo and the ensembles, not where the GFS is putting the rain/snow line at day 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 There is a ton of cold air that comes into the area as the storm gets together. I disagree with your statement. If the low takes a benchmark track, this will be a storm for the coast. If the storm behaves as modeled by the gfs and takes a benchmark track yes, otherwise no. Everything has to go right when average highs are nearing 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Agree that track is more important than just using climo. If the storm takes a favorable track then coastal areas see snow case closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm basing my argument off of climo and the ensembles, not where the GFS is putting the rain/snow line at day 6-7. Who cares about climo. Are we really having this argument again? You have a -EPO that is drilling down cold air into the region along with a nice PNA spike and a favorable MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Agree that track is more important than just using climo. If the storm takes a favorable track then coastal areas see snow case closed. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It's a far cry from the triple phaser that it showed yesterday at 18z. Good. The majority on this forum would benefit more from today's 12z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 All areas are 0.50-0.75" QPF this run and it's in and out in about 12-15 hours. Height of the storm is morning through mid day Wednesday. Verbatim it's a 4-8" snowfall. I'd much rather take my chances with a more explosive setup at H5. Agree with this 100% This run is fitting because it basically fits the theme of the whole winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Phl looks warm to start. Nw of there looks like all snow. Thanks Allsnow, I'm about 50 miles W of Phila. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Agree that track is more important than just using climo. If the storm takes a favorable track then coastal areas see snow case closed. The 12z GFS took nearly a perfect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I know people would take the GFS in a heart beat, but I personally want one of those classic March bombs, and if the shortwave splits like that I doubt we will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I know people would take the GFS in a heart beat, but I personally want one of those classic March bombs, and if the shortwave splits like that I doubt we will. The 18z GFS was showing something that you see very rarely, but the last few runs have trended away from that. We want to see the energy more consolidated out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 People cant be happy here.. this is not the final.solution.. but if it does end snowing 4-8 inches.. i take it without questioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Would gladly take a 4-8" storm to end the season rather than risk a big rainstorm with a phased bomb but I can see why some would prefer the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 To be clear, that is the possibility snow will be reported on a given day, not 15% that it will snow again as of March 14. Also interesting is that the average snow depth is at its highest at the end of the month. Of course, March 1888 or 1993 are very rare, but most March's feature accumulating snow in the NYC area. We have a mid-March climo snowfall peak in NYC before it falls again later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The most snow also falls during the highest sun angle of the day, and even though I'm not one to over emphasis its effects, we are starting to get in range of where it would become a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Good. The majority on this forum would benefit more from today's 12z GFS run. Be careful what you wish for, the GFS was literally the best case scenario today with that H5 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 We have a mid-March climo snowfall peak in NYC before it falls again later in the month. nysfreq.jpg Hopefully people realize that "peak" is an artifact of not having enough statistically significant data. If we had 1000 years of data, I'm certain that curve would be a smooth, nearly Gaussian distribution, since there's no reason, climatologically for a "peak" later in the season on part of an overall larger downward trend, when it's warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The most snow also falls during the highest sun angle of the day, and even though I'm not one to over emphasis its effects, we are starting to get in range of where it would become a factor. It wouldn't matter with temps below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 To be clear, that is the possibility snow will be reported on a given day, not 15% that it will snow again as of March 14. Also interesting is that the average snow depth is at its highest at the end of the month. Of course, March 1888 or 1993 are very rare, but most March's feature accumulating snow in the NYC area. No, it's the probability of snow being reported on THE given day. On March 14th, the graph appears to indicate approximately a 16% chance of occurring (meaning in the historical record of weather on March 14th, from the 1870s to the present, snow was reported in at least one observation on approximately 16% of the days). The end of the month makes sense, look at the percentile spread. It's all or nothing at that point basically: either there was a massive anomalous snowfall (which from the other graphs you can see by the end of March the probability of snowfall even occurring much less on the ground is around 10%) or there was no snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Hopefully people realize that "peak" is an artifact of not having enough statistically significant data. If we had 1000 years of data, I'm certain that curve would be a smooth, nearly Gaussian distribution, since there's no reason, climatologically for a "peak" later in the season on part of an overall larger downward trend, when it's warmer. There is plenty of data in that chart and when have we ever used 1000 year data for our weather records? It's well known that there is a snowfall max here in Mid-March and a much smaller one here in early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 It wouldn't matter with temps below freezing. Good luck with that one, 850mb temps are barely below freezing for the duration of the storm. 0 to -4C at best until you get into Upstate NY. We're talking moderate snow at the height. Lower your expectations. Ratios might be lower than 10:1. Like I said, 4-8" verbatim this run with all the pieces in perfect position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.