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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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At this point it's hard to say it will be a strong wrapped up storm. It could very well be smaller pieces ejecting out which could be good for us. Don't even bring climo into this because if that were the case then Virginia would not be seeing more snow than us for March.

It's still impossible to determine what will happen but it's really nice having something to track this late in the season.

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And the probability of that happening again is infinitesimal.  People using these one-time events as proof that some future event has a higher probability of occurring is one of the most common logical fallacies, that being the appeal to possibility.

 

According to this site (https://weatherspark.com/averages/31081/3/New-York-United-States), the probability of snow just being reported by March 14 falls to near 15%.

Okay, I'm one of the ones arguing that the coast is not favored here. I'm just using that as an example of what could happen given the right setup.

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Okay, I'm one of the ones arguing that the coast is not favored here. I'm just using that as an example of what could happen given the right setup.

There is a ton of cold air that comes into the area as the storm gets together. I disagree with your statement. If the low takes a benchmark track, this will be a storm for the coast.

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And the probability of that happening again is infinitesimal.  People using these one-time events as proof that some future event has a higher probability of occurring is one of the most common logical fallacies, that being the appeal to possibility.

 

According to this site (https://weatherspark.com/averages/31081/3/New-York-United-States), the probability of snow just being reported by March 14 falls to near 15%.

To be clear, that is the possibility snow will be reported on a given day, not 15% that it will snow again as of March 14.  Also interesting is that the average snow depth is at its highest at the end of the month.  Of course, March 1888 or 1993 are very rare, but most March's feature accumulating snow in the NYC area.

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There is a ton of cold air that comes into the area as the storm gets together. I disagree with your statement. If the low takes a benchmark track, this will be a storm for the coast.

I'm basing my argument off of climo and the ensembles, not where the GFS is putting the rain/snow line at day 6-7.

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There is a ton of cold air that comes into the area as the storm gets together. I disagree with your statement. If the low takes a benchmark track, this will be a storm for the coast.

 

If the storm behaves as modeled by the gfs and takes a benchmark track yes, otherwise no. Everything has to go right when average highs are nearing 50

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I'm basing my argument off of climo and the ensembles, not where the GFS is putting the rain/snow line at day 6-7.

Who cares about climo. Are we really having this argument again? You have a -EPO that is drilling down cold air into the region along with a nice PNA spike and a favorable MJO.

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All areas are 0.50-0.75" QPF this run and it's in and out in about 12-15 hours. Height of the storm is morning through mid day Wednesday. Verbatim it's a 4-8" snowfall. I'd much rather take my chances with a more explosive setup at H5.

Agree with this 100%

This run is fitting because it basically fits the theme of the whole winter

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I know people would take the GFS in a heart beat, but I personally want one of those classic March bombs, and if the shortwave splits like that I doubt we will. 

The 18z GFS was showing something that you see very rarely, but the last few runs have trended away from that. We want to see the energy more consolidated out West.

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To be clear, that is the possibility snow will be reported on a given day, not 15% that it will snow again as of March 14.  Also interesting is that the average snow depth is at its highest at the end of the month.  Of course, March 1888 or 1993 are very rare, but most March's feature accumulating snow in the NYC area.

 

We have a mid-March climo snowfall peak in NYC before it falls again later in the month.

 

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We have a mid-March climo snowfall peak in NYC before it falls again later in the month.

 

attachicon.gifnysfreq.jpg

Hopefully people realize that "peak" is an artifact of not having enough statistically significant data.  If we had 1000 years of data, I'm certain that curve would be a smooth, nearly Gaussian distribution, since there's no reason, climatologically for a "peak" later in the season on part of an overall larger downward trend, when it's warmer.

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To be clear, that is the possibility snow will be reported on a given day, not 15% that it will snow again as of March 14.  Also interesting is that the average snow depth is at its highest at the end of the month.  Of course, March 1888 or 1993 are very rare, but most March's feature accumulating snow in the NYC area.

 

No, it's the probability of snow being reported on THE given day.  On March 14th, the graph appears to indicate approximately a 16% chance of occurring (meaning in the historical record of weather on March 14th, from the 1870s to the present, snow was reported in at least one observation on approximately 16% of the days).

 

The end of the month makes sense, look at the percentile spread.  It's all or nothing at that point basically: either there was a massive anomalous snowfall (which from the other graphs you can see by the end of March the probability of snowfall even occurring much less on the ground is around 10%) or there was no snow at all.

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Hopefully people realize that "peak" is an artifact of not having enough statistically significant data.  If we had 1000 years of data, I'm certain that curve would be a smooth, nearly Gaussian distribution, since there's no reason, climatologically for a "peak" later in the season on part of an overall larger downward trend, when it's warmer.

 

There is plenty of data in that chart and when have we ever used 1000 year data for our weather records?

It's well known that there is a snowfall max here in Mid-March and a much smaller one here in early April.

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It wouldn't matter with temps below freezing.

Good luck with that one, 850mb temps are barely below freezing for the duration of the storm. 0 to -4C at best until you get into Upstate NY. We're talking moderate snow at the height. Lower your expectations. Ratios might be lower than 10:1. Like I said, 4-8" verbatim this run with all the pieces in perfect position.

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