IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 If there is a coastal storm, the coast will see the most snow. You always think your area, which really isn't inland, sees a crazy amount more. In the end, the usual areas of SWCT and LI will bullseye, as they almost always do with a low near the BM. I don't live anywhere near Monticello I'm just reporting what they show. Good luck with your Long Island JP during the middle of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 this far out those comparisons mean nothing - example - this past weekends storm EURO also favored northern areas many days prior to the storm and we know what ended up verifying It's still worth mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I don't live anywhere near Monticello I'm just reporting what they show. They show a spread of inland solutions, lakes cutters, BM hits and also OTS solutions. Pinpointing rain/snow lines from this far out is lunacy. If there is a coastal system near the BM, the coast will see the most snow. Specifically, SWCT, EWR area and NYC/LI. But, an inland solution, or a coastal hugger, like the control run, is definitely possible and obviously, that would benefit PA and upstate areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 They show a spread of inland solutions, lakes cutters, BM hits and also OTS solutions. Pinpointing rain/snow lines from this far out is lunacy. If there is a coastal system near the BM, the coast will see the most snow. Specifically, SWCT, EWR area and NYC/LI. But, an inland solution, or a coastal hugger, like the control run, is definitely possible and obviously, that would benefit PA and upstate areas. I have access to the individual members, so when I make those statements I'm reporting the data, not conjuring them out of thin area to push an agenda, unlike others on this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Like I said.... Only 13 members had 6"+ or more at KLGA and only 8 of those had over 10". That's a fact, you can interpret it as you please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Guys take it easy it isnt even worth mentioning model output yet just what the pattern looks could yield currently. We're 7 days out and at this rate this thread will be derailed in no time. Pattern looks good for a coastal storm with strength/ track yet to be determined thats all thats really conclusive currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 8 days away from any potential storm and there's already bickering from the usual suspects and IMBY-ism. This is a threat to watch for now for the chance there will be a storm, P-types are not important at all this far out. Hasn't anyone learned anything from the last few debacles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Guys take it easy it isnt even worth mentioning model output yet just what the pattern looks could yield currently. We're 7 days out and at this rate this thread will be derailed in no time. Pattern looks good for a coastal storm with strength/ track yet to be determined thats all thats really conclusive currently If anything people should be focusing on the ensembles, and just looking at a mean is rather deceiving. The individual members tell a different story. Again, QPF isn't the issue, it's temperature profiles. How can you say that inland areas aren't more favored for snow in mid-March just going off of climo alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 If anything people should be focusing on the ensembles, and just looking at a mean is rather deceiving. The individual members tell a different story. Again, QPF isn't the issue, it's temperature profiles. How can you say that inland areas aren't more favored for snow in mid-March just going off of climo alone. I agree that climo does favor inland areas moreso because of the fact cold air is more entrenched and coastal areas need an almost ideal track and cold air source at all levels to attain an all snow event. Ensembles are a better way of interpreting an outcome but not to be taken too seriously as of yet. Yanks dont let people get under your skin or its going to make you get on the radar with the mods, let it go and move on dont want to see you on a vacation with a possible storm next week because someone managed to rustle your jimmies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I agree that climo does favor inland areas moreso because of the fact cold air is more entrenched and coastal areas need an almost ideal track and cold air source at all levels to attain an all snow event. Ensembles are a better way of interpreting an outcome but not to be taken too seriously as of yet. Yanks dont let people get under your skin or its going to make you get on the radar with the mods, let it go and move on dont want to see you on a vacation with a possible storm next week because someone managed to rustle your jimmies If this tracks to the benchmark then I agree that it would favor the immediate coast, but to me this has inland runner written all over it. 93' esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I think the map you are posting is the 18z run. Anthony posted the 6z run. 6z DGEX is 14"-20" of snow for the coast. Oh no! Is that the DGEX or the REGEX model ( and I don't mean in a 'REGional' context here!) Just a play on the homonym 'REJECTS' lol. By the way what is its track record this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 If this tracks to the benchmark then I agree that it would favor the immediate coast, but to me this has inland runner written all over it. 93' esque. At this time and also the tendency for wound up march up storms i too would favor more of coastal hugger or inland runner. Too early to draw any conclusion but to get a coastal MECS/HECS this really has to be timed well with a greeland/ davis strait block, PV/cold air source, PNA spike and trough axis out west to be in close to ideal location and the northern/ southern stream phasing around the MS valley. Too far off to take any outcome seriously but an early "hunch" is an inland runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 At this time and also the tendency for wound up march up storms i too would favor more of coastal hugger or inland runner. Too early to draw any conclusion but to get a coastal MECS/HECS this really has to be timed well with a greeland/ davis strait block, PV/cold air source, PNA spike and trough axis out west to be in close to ideal location and the northern/ southern stream phasing around the MS valley. Too far off to take any outcome seriously but an early "hunch" is an inland runner Just going off of climo, the statistical probability of accumulating snows at the coast in Mid-March is low. I'm not saying it's zero, or even close to zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Just going off of climo, the statistical probability of accumulating snows at the coast in Mid-March is low. I'm not saying it's zero, or even close to zero. It's probably around 0.05 on the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 My man I like you're stuff. Glad u jumped off the accu board and are here. Incredible free agent signing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Just going off of climo, the statistical probability of accumulating snows at the coast in Mid-March is low. I'm not saying it's zero, or even close to zero. Not saying its likely and just wishful thinking but who knows maybe this could be our march 01' that might not actually give us the middle finger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Incredible free agent signing. I will gladly give them a player to be named later lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not saying its likely and just wishful thinking but who knows maybe this could be our march 01' that might not actually give us the middle finger For those that think it can not snow in March see March 11-14th 1888. 400 fatalities and 25 Million in damage using 1888 figures. Billions of dollars today. 22" officially at Central Park. Most of NJ and NY State saw 40"+. 52 foot, yes that's foot drift was reported in Upstate NY. Boston area saw 50"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The separation of the shortwave out west between 129-135 is killing the "big storm" idea on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I will gladly give them a weenie to be named later lol There I fixed it for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 The separation of the shortwave out west between 129-135 is killing the "big storm" idea on the GFS Look at H5 from 18z yesterday and then look at 00z, 06z and now 12z and you will see that it's handling the energy less and less favorably each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Storm is starting to get stronger at 144 hours. This run is going to show a nice hit for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Going to be a decent storm this run, nearly entirely northern stream driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 GGEM did this last night too, Basically instead of digging a shortwave all as one down south, it splits off and sends a weaker one East....which is where it develops its main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Gfs looks beautiful. Mod snow NYC-north 12z wed Storm def moving up in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Storm is starting to get stronger at 144 hours. This run is going to show a nice hit for the area. It's a far cry from the triple phaser that it showed yesterday at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 A evolution like the GFS could still be good for you guys, but down here doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Hr 147 15z wed heavy snow 1000 bm over southern Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 For those that think it can not snow in March see March 11-14th 1888. 400 fatalities and 25 Million in damage using 1888 figures. Billions of dollars today. And the probability of that happening again is infinitesimal. People using these one-time events as proof that some future event has a higher probability of occurring is one of the most common logical fallacies, that being the appeal to possibility. According to this site (https://weatherspark.com/averages/31081/3/New-York-United-States), the probability of snow just being reported by March 14 falls to near 15%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Moderate to heavy snow for NYC at 150 hours. Low is moving towards the benchmark or just inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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