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March 12 -14 Potential Storm

NEG NAO

By NEG NAO,
in New York City Metro

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted
Think me and you think the same on this but we should really wait till sunday/ monday time frame before we really start diving into the possibilities of what MAY happen. After mondays major shift south from 4 days out that storm told us nothing is even at the 96 hour mark. The setup looks good but for coastal areas and mid march we need a perfect benchmark track with a strong deepening LP and a fresh cold air source to almost guarantee an all snow event down to the coast. Looks good right now on some of the models but im waiting till sunday/ monday before pulling the trigger on this one especially in mid

May be the last accumulating threat of the winter IMO and I've been invested since NOV So what's 1 more week.

Would like to see this on Monday . I'm sure the weenie in everyone will have their nose pressed up against the glass for the next few days.

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted
Think me and you think the same on this but we should really wait till sunday/ monday time frame before we really start diving into the possibilities of what MAY happen. After mondays major shift south from 4 days out that storm told us nothing is even at the 96 hour mark. The setup looks good but for coastal areas and mid march we need a perfect benchmark track with a strong deepening LP and a fresh cold air source to almost guarantee an all snow event down to the coast. Looks good right now on some of the models but im waiting till sunday/ monday before pulling the trigger on this one especially in mid

May be the last accumulating threat of the winter IMO and I've been invested since NOV So what's 1 more week.

Would like to see this on Monday . I'm sure the weenie in everyone will have their nose pressed up against the glass for the next few days.

Well like ive said with MECS/HECS modeled storms this far out the whole season, waiting is key and even im guilty of not doing that. However being in march and the setup this POSSIBLE storm has it has some big ramifications should it come to fruition. In conclusion, im just going to be enjoying my first friday of lent in a seafood department in a supermarket and my weekend as well, the monday ill come back to this threat seriously and see what it wants to do

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Wow! that's one impressive signal for a day 7 ensemble mean. I have to agree with you on this as far as waiting it out. The last storm literally pulled the carpet right out from under us. I'll wait till monday before i bite. 

Next week we are not going to have as strong a PV pressing the precip south of us - and with a positive PNA that will also help the trough in the east and the storm make it up the coast

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

.http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

OVER THE WEST EXPECT INITIAL PACIFIC ORIGIN OF FLOW AND THEN RIDGE

ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT

MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE PERIOD. HEAVIEST PCPN SHOULD OCCUR

SUN-SUN NIGHT ALONG THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST AND FAVORED TERRAIN

INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MSTR WILL THEN LINGER FOR A TIME OVER THE

NORTHWEST AND EXTEND E/SE INTO PARTS OF THE GRTBASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES

WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED BY WED-THU.

OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS... UPR SYSTEM EVENTUALLY DEPARTING FROM

NRN MEXICO AND TX SHOULD SUPPORT RNFL OF VARYING INTENSITY FROM

THE RIO GRANDE VLY EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST. PASSAGE OF ERN

PAC/WRN CONUS ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE

ENHANCED PCPN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AROUND TUE OR WED.

FARTHER EWD... EXPECT ENERGY WITHIN NRN STREAM FLOW TO GENERATE

ONE OR MORE PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE UPR GRTLKS/NEW ENG DURING THE

FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD. THEN SPECIFICS OF ERN CONUS/WRN

ATLC SFC EVOLUTION WILL DETERMINE WHERE WINTRY PCPN MAY OCCUR

WITHIN THE NRN HALF OF THE EAST. WED-THU EVOLUTION IN THE

PREFERRED ENSEMBLE MEANS IS SUFFICIENTLY SLOW TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL

FOR A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT OVER THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR

TEMPS... THERE WILL BE BRIEF WARMUP EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE YET

ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR REACHES THE EAST WITH A BROAD

AREA OF DAYTIME HIGHS 10-20F BELOW NORMAL PSBL BY NEXT THU.

RAUSCH

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

attachicon.gif97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

 

PAC looks just a little busy....atm

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/entire_UA.gif

 

attachicon.gifentire_UA.gif

 

 

I think I hear a pig yelling weeeeeeeee!   :) 

My man I like you're stuff. Glad u jumped off the accu board and are here.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

Yeah, the CMC ensemble mean looks much like the Euro ensembles. The CMC Op has pulled into

second place behind the Euro on skill recently at day 6.

 

 

attachicon.gif2014030600_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_168.png

 

 

attachicon.gifcor_day6_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

Not a shock. But the 6z and 18z GFS runs are also doing worse than 0z and 12z runs at 144hr:

 

j60mlj.jpg

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

.http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

OVER THE WEST EXPECT INITIAL PACIFIC ORIGIN OF FLOW AND THEN RIDGE

ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT

MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE PERIOD. HEAVIEST PCPN SHOULD OCCUR

SUN-SUN NIGHT ALONG THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST AND FAVORED TERRAIN

INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MSTR WILL THEN LINGER FOR A TIME OVER THE

NORTHWEST AND EXTEND E/SE INTO PARTS OF THE GRTBASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES

WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED BY WED-THU.

OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS... UPR SYSTEM EVENTUALLY DEPARTING FROM

NRN MEXICO AND TX SHOULD SUPPORT RNFL OF VARYING INTENSITY FROM

THE RIO GRANDE VLY EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST. PASSAGE OF ERN

PAC/WRN CONUS ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE

ENHANCED PCPN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AROUND TUE OR WED.

FARTHER EWD... EXPECT ENERGY WITHIN NRN STREAM FLOW TO GENERATE

ONE OR MORE PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE UPR GRTLKS/NEW ENG DURING THE

FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD. THEN SPECIFICS OF ERN CONUS/WRN

ATLC SFC EVOLUTION WILL DETERMINE WHERE WINTRY PCPN MAY OCCUR

WITHIN THE NRN HALF OF THE EAST. WED-THU EVOLUTION IN THE

PREFERRED ENSEMBLE MEANS IS SUFFICIENTLY SLOW TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL

FOR A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT OVER THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR

TEMPS... THERE WILL BE BRIEF WARMUP EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE YET

ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR REACHES THE EAST WITH A BROAD

AREA OF DAYTIME HIGHS 10-20F BELOW NORMAL PSBL BY NEXT THU.

RAUSCH

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

attachicon.gif97ep48iwbg_fill.gif

PAC looks just a little busy....atm

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/entire_UA.gif

attachicon.gifentire_UA.gif

I think I hear a pig yelling weeeeeeeee! :)

That last image reminds me of what we could have just experienced with just a bit less suppression.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Not a shock. But the 6z and 18z GFS runs are also doing worse than 0z and 12z runs at 144hr:

 

j60mlj.jpg

 

According  to a post by DT, the CMC has big upgrade plans to include the OP/ensembles and  RGEM.

 

* IMPORTANT WEATHER MODELS NEWS *** CANADIAN MODEL TO UNDERGO ANOTHER MASSIVE UPGRADE...

back in FEB 2013 the CMC Global Model (big scale) and REGIONAL Model) under went a major upgrade and went to 4DVAR. 

The EURO snd Br Models use 4DVAR... the GFS uses 3DVAR ( WHAT is 3DVAR 4 DVAR? see below)

After seeing significant improvement in their Models in 2013 last month the Canadians announced they are pourings tens of millions of $$ into another huge upgrade. 

1 The current model resolution of the Global Caandian ( aka as the GGEM) is 25km ... under this new upgrade they will drop it down to 15km... equal to the ECWMF ( uro is 16km)

2 they will expand the use of 4DVAR on all of the CMC Global ensembles which is Huge and very costly. AS of this postiing ONLY the ECMWF ensembles uses 4DVAR . ... so this increase by the Canadians is BIG 

3 Model the short range RGEM Model resolution will shift from 12km to 5km and go out to 60 hrs.

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

the 6Z GFS still delivers a few inches of snow to the area even though it is further east - also anyone believing next weeks potential will be the last chance for the season - think again - the long range is cold with another snow chance the following week

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

Hope after this storm threat(s) april will finally deliver some of our warm weather for spring already. I love cold and snow in the DJF but once march gets here i want some hints or signs of spring showing up not more snow

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

According to a post by DT, the CMC has big upgrade plans to include the OP/ensembles and RGEM.

* IMPORTANT WEATHER MODELS NEWS *** CANADIAN MODEL TO UNDERGO ANOTHER MASSIVE UPGRADE...

back in FEB 2013 the CMC Global Model (big scale) and REGIONAL Model) under went a major upgrade and went to 4DVAR.

The EURO snd Br Models use 4DVAR... the GFS uses 3DVAR ( WHAT is 3DVAR 4 DVAR? see below)

After seeing significant improvement in their Models in 2013 last month the Canadians announced they are pourings tens of millions of $$ into another huge upgrade.

1 The current model resolution of the Global Caandian ( aka as the GGEM) is 25km ... under this new upgrade they will drop it down to 15km... equal to the ECWMF ( uro is 16km)

2 they will expand the use of 4DVAR on all of the CMC Global ensembles which is Huge and very costly. AS of this postiing ONLY the ECMWF ensembles uses 4DVAR . ... so this increase by the Canadians is BIG

3 Model the short range RGEM Model resolution will shift from 12km to 5km and go out to 60 hrs.

Sucks because the RGEM will likely get worse following the upgrade, it's hard to see how it could be any better than it was this winter.

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yankeex777

yankeex777

Posted
Posted

According  to a post by DT, the CMC has big upgrade plans to include the OP/ensembles and  RGEM.

 

* IMPORTANT WEATHER MODELS NEWS *** CANADIAN MODEL TO UNDERGO ANOTHER MASSIVE UPGRADE...

back in FEB 2013 the CMC Global Model (big scale) and REGIONAL Model) under went a major upgrade and went to 4DVAR. 

The EURO snd Br Models use 4DVAR... the GFS uses 3DVAR ( WHAT is 3DVAR 4 DVAR? see below)

After seeing significant improvement in their Models in 2013 last month the Canadians announced they are pourings tens of millions of $$ into another huge upgrade. 

1 The current model resolution of the Global Caandian ( aka as the GGEM) is 25km ... under this new upgrade they will drop it down to 15km... equal to the ECWMF ( uro is 16km)

2 they will expand the use of 4DVAR on all of the CMC Global ensembles which is Huge and very costly. AS of this postiing ONLY the ECMWF ensembles uses 4DVAR . ... so this increase by the Canadians is BIG 

3 Model the short range RGEM Model resolution will shift from 12km to 5km and go out to 60 hrs.

 

I'm pretty sure a couple posts later he saw that this upgrade was being delayed a couple years.

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REDMK6GLI

REDMK6GLI

Posted
Posted

More like FTL. The DGEX next run could show a system with no snow north of Richmond.

Anybody that follows this forum knows the DGEX does not believe in run-to-run consistency unless its on some rouge hot streak. That said next week does have to be watched regardless but my confidence for an all snow event for the entire tri state area is low at this time

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

32 ECMWF ensemble members had at least 6" of snow or more by day ten for Monticello, NY. 19 of those had 10"+.

 

Why is that relevant for us?

 

Only 13 members had 6"+ or more at KLGA and only 8 of those had over 10".

 

So to say the least, 00z Euro ensembles favored areas to our north and west for snow.

 

Just to reference, 22 members had over an inch of QPF at KLGA.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
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Posted

32 ECMWF ensemble members had at least 6" of snow or more by day ten for Monticello, NY. 19 of those had 10"+.

 

Why is that relevant for us?

 

Only 13 members had 6"+ or more at KLGA and only 8 of those had over 10".

 

So to say the least, 00z Euro ensembles favored areas to our north and west for snow.

 

Just to reference, 22 members had over an inch of QPF at KLGA.

this far out those comparisons mean nothing - example - this past weekends storm EURO also favored northern areas many days prior to the storm and we know what ended up verifying

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