PB GFI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Think me and you think the same on this but we should really wait till sunday/ monday time frame before we really start diving into the possibilities of what MAY happen. After mondays major shift south from 4 days out that storm told us nothing is even at the 96 hour mark. The setup looks good but for coastal areas and mid march we need a perfect benchmark track with a strong deepening LP and a fresh cold air source to almost guarantee an all snow event down to the coast. Looks good right now on some of the models but im waiting till sunday/ monday before pulling the trigger on this one especially in mid May be the last accumulating threat of the winter IMO and I've been invested since NOV So what's 1 more week. Would like to see this on Monday . I'm sure the weenie in everyone will have their nose pressed up against the glass for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Think me and you think the same on this but we should really wait till sunday/ monday time frame before we really start diving into the possibilities of what MAY happen. After mondays major shift south from 4 days out that storm told us nothing is even at the 96 hour mark. The setup looks good but for coastal areas and mid march we need a perfect benchmark track with a strong deepening LP and a fresh cold air source to almost guarantee an all snow event down to the coast. Looks good right now on some of the models but im waiting till sunday/ monday before pulling the trigger on this one especially in mid May be the last accumulating threat of the winter IMO and I've been invested since NOV So what's 1 more week. Would like to see this on Monday . I'm sure the weenie in everyone will have their nose pressed up against the glass for the next few days. Well like ive said with MECS/HECS modeled storms this far out the whole season, waiting is key and even im guilty of not doing that. However being in march and the setup this POSSIBLE storm has it has some big ramifications should it come to fruition. In conclusion, im just going to be enjoying my first friday of lent in a seafood department in a supermarket and my weekend as well, the monday ill come back to this threat seriously and see what it wants to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 Wow! that's one impressive signal for a day 7 ensemble mean. I have to agree with you on this as far as waiting it out. The last storm literally pulled the carpet right out from under us. I'll wait till monday before i bite. Next week we are not going to have as strong a PV pressing the precip south of us - and with a positive PNA that will also help the trough in the east and the storm make it up the coast http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 .http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... OVER THE WEST EXPECT INITIAL PACIFIC ORIGIN OF FLOW AND THEN RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE PERIOD. HEAVIEST PCPN SHOULD OCCUR SUN-SUN NIGHT ALONG THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST AND FAVORED TERRAIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MSTR WILL THEN LINGER FOR A TIME OVER THE NORTHWEST AND EXTEND E/SE INTO PARTS OF THE GRTBASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED BY WED-THU. OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS... UPR SYSTEM EVENTUALLY DEPARTING FROM NRN MEXICO AND TX SHOULD SUPPORT RNFL OF VARYING INTENSITY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VLY EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST. PASSAGE OF ERN PAC/WRN CONUS ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ENHANCED PCPN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AROUND TUE OR WED. FARTHER EWD... EXPECT ENERGY WITHIN NRN STREAM FLOW TO GENERATE ONE OR MORE PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE UPR GRTLKS/NEW ENG DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD. THEN SPECIFICS OF ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC SFC EVOLUTION WILL DETERMINE WHERE WINTRY PCPN MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NRN HALF OF THE EAST. WED-THU EVOLUTION IN THE PREFERRED ENSEMBLE MEANS IS SUFFICIENTLY SLOW TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT OVER THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPS... THERE WILL BE BRIEF WARMUP EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE YET ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR REACHES THE EAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF DAYTIME HIGHS 10-20F BELOW NORMAL PSBL BY NEXT THU. RAUSCH http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif 97ep48iwbg_fill.gif PAC looks just a little busy....atm http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/entire_UA.gif entire_UA.gif I think I hear a pig yelling weeeeeeeee! My man I like you're stuff. Glad u jumped off the accu board and are here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 the 6Z GFS still delivers a few inches of snow to the area even though it is further east - also anyone believing next weeks potential will be the last chance for the season - think again - the long range is cold with another snow chance the following week http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Yeah, the CMC ensemble mean looks much like the Euro ensembles. The CMC Op has pulled into second place behind the Euro on skill recently at day 6. 2014030600_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_168.png cor_day6_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png Not a shock. But the 6z and 18z GFS runs are also doing worse than 0z and 12z runs at 144hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 .http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... OVER THE WEST EXPECT INITIAL PACIFIC ORIGIN OF FLOW AND THEN RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE PERIOD. HEAVIEST PCPN SHOULD OCCUR SUN-SUN NIGHT ALONG THE PAC NW/NRN CA COAST AND FAVORED TERRAIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MSTR WILL THEN LINGER FOR A TIME OVER THE NORTHWEST AND EXTEND E/SE INTO PARTS OF THE GRTBASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES WITH A DRIER TREND EXPECTED BY WED-THU. OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS... UPR SYSTEM EVENTUALLY DEPARTING FROM NRN MEXICO AND TX SHOULD SUPPORT RNFL OF VARYING INTENSITY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VLY EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST. PASSAGE OF ERN PAC/WRN CONUS ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ENHANCED PCPN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AROUND TUE OR WED. FARTHER EWD... EXPECT ENERGY WITHIN NRN STREAM FLOW TO GENERATE ONE OR MORE PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE UPR GRTLKS/NEW ENG DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD. THEN SPECIFICS OF ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC SFC EVOLUTION WILL DETERMINE WHERE WINTRY PCPN MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE NRN HALF OF THE EAST. WED-THU EVOLUTION IN THE PREFERRED ENSEMBLE MEANS IS SUFFICIENTLY SLOW TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FAIRLY LONG DURATION EVENT OVER THE NORTHEAST. AS FOR TEMPS... THERE WILL BE BRIEF WARMUP EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE YET ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR REACHES THE EAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF DAYTIME HIGHS 10-20F BELOW NORMAL PSBL BY NEXT THU. RAUSCH http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif 97ep48iwbg_fill.gif PAC looks just a little busy....atm http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/entire_UA.gif entire_UA.gif I think I hear a pig yelling weeeeeeeee! That last image reminds me of what we could have just experienced with just a bit less suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Not a shock. But the 6z and 18z GFS runs are also doing worse than 0z and 12z runs at 144hr: According to a post by DT, the CMC has big upgrade plans to include the OP/ensembles and RGEM. * IMPORTANT WEATHER MODELS NEWS *** CANADIAN MODEL TO UNDERGO ANOTHER MASSIVE UPGRADE... back in FEB 2013 the CMC Global Model (big scale) and REGIONAL Model) under went a major upgrade and went to 4DVAR. The EURO snd Br Models use 4DVAR... the GFS uses 3DVAR ( WHAT is 3DVAR 4 DVAR? see below) After seeing significant improvement in their Models in 2013 last month the Canadians announced they are pourings tens of millions of $$ into another huge upgrade. 1 The current model resolution of the Global Caandian ( aka as the GGEM) is 25km ... under this new upgrade they will drop it down to 15km... equal to the ECWMF ( uro is 16km) 2 they will expand the use of 4DVAR on all of the CMC Global ensembles which is Huge and very costly. AS of this postiing ONLY the ECMWF ensembles uses 4DVAR . ... so this increase by the Canadians is BIG 3 Model the short range RGEM Model resolution will shift from 12km to 5km and go out to 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 00z EPS control run is epic just north of NYC. 10-20" from I-80 up into Canada. 20"+ up by Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 the 6Z GFS still delivers a few inches of snow to the area even though it is further east - also anyone believing next weeks potential will be the last chance for the season - think again - the long range is cold with another snow chance the following week http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Hope after this storm threat(s) april will finally deliver some of our warm weather for spring already. I love cold and snow in the DJF but once march gets here i want some hints or signs of spring showing up not more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 00z EPS control run is epic just north of NYC. 10-20" from I-80 up into Canada. 20"+ up by Syracuse. Cool! Cold rain for the coast still far off for any solution just poking fun yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 According to a post by DT, the CMC has big upgrade plans to include the OP/ensembles and RGEM. * IMPORTANT WEATHER MODELS NEWS *** CANADIAN MODEL TO UNDERGO ANOTHER MASSIVE UPGRADE... back in FEB 2013 the CMC Global Model (big scale) and REGIONAL Model) under went a major upgrade and went to 4DVAR. The EURO snd Br Models use 4DVAR... the GFS uses 3DVAR ( WHAT is 3DVAR 4 DVAR? see below) After seeing significant improvement in their Models in 2013 last month the Canadians announced they are pourings tens of millions of $$ into another huge upgrade. 1 The current model resolution of the Global Caandian ( aka as the GGEM) is 25km ... under this new upgrade they will drop it down to 15km... equal to the ECWMF ( uro is 16km) 2 they will expand the use of 4DVAR on all of the CMC Global ensembles which is Huge and very costly. AS of this postiing ONLY the ECMWF ensembles uses 4DVAR . ... so this increase by the Canadians is BIG 3 Model the short range RGEM Model resolution will shift from 12km to 5km and go out to 60 hrs. Sucks because the RGEM will likely get worse following the upgrade, it's hard to see how it could be any better than it was this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 According to a post by DT, the CMC has big upgrade plans to include the OP/ensembles and RGEM. * IMPORTANT WEATHER MODELS NEWS *** CANADIAN MODEL TO UNDERGO ANOTHER MASSIVE UPGRADE... back in FEB 2013 the CMC Global Model (big scale) and REGIONAL Model) under went a major upgrade and went to 4DVAR. The EURO snd Br Models use 4DVAR... the GFS uses 3DVAR ( WHAT is 3DVAR 4 DVAR? see below) After seeing significant improvement in their Models in 2013 last month the Canadians announced they are pourings tens of millions of $$ into another huge upgrade. 1 The current model resolution of the Global Caandian ( aka as the GGEM) is 25km ... under this new upgrade they will drop it down to 15km... equal to the ECWMF ( uro is 16km) 2 they will expand the use of 4DVAR on all of the CMC Global ensembles which is Huge and very costly. AS of this postiing ONLY the ECMWF ensembles uses 4DVAR . ... so this increase by the Canadians is BIG 3 Model the short range RGEM Model resolution will shift from 12km to 5km and go out to 60 hrs. I'm pretty sure a couple posts later he saw that this upgrade was being delayed a couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 FWIW.DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 0Z EURO OP is not a HECS for anyone. 8" in NYC and top half of NJ and 12" in Conn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm all in for some SECS next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 FWIW.DGEX. More like FTL. The DGEX next run could show a system with no snow north of Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm pretty sure a couple posts later he saw that this upgrade was being delayed a couple years. It sounds like an expensive proposition and I haven't been able to find any notices about it on the EC site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 I'm all in for some SECS next week! Lets bring SECS'y back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Sucks because the RGEM will likely get worse following the upgrade, it's hard to see how it could be any better than it was this winter. Maybe they will run two versions like they do for the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 More like FTL. The DGEX next run could show a system with no snow north of Richmond. Anybody that follows this forum knows the DGEX does not believe in run-to-run consistency unless its on some rouge hot streak. That said next week does have to be watched regardless but my confidence for an all snow event for the entire tri state area is low at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 0Z EURO OP is not a HECS for anyone. 8" in NYC and top half of NJ and 12" in Conn. I think many of us would lock in 8-12" if we had the opportunity. That's just the weenie snow maps, anyway; QPF is a uniform 1" to 1.2" throughout the area, which would surely create nice totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Many more runs to go but what we do know is that there will be some type of storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 FWIW.DGEX. Corresponding snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Corresponding snow map. There is no way that the snowmap is right lol. It's the DGEX so who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 6z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 32 ECMWF ensemble members had at least 6" of snow or more by day ten for Monticello, NY. 19 of those had 10"+. Why is that relevant for us? Only 13 members had 6"+ or more at KLGA and only 8 of those had over 10". So to say the least, 00z Euro ensembles favored areas to our north and west for snow. Just to reference, 22 members had over an inch of QPF at KLGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 There is no way that the snowmap is right lol. It's the DGEX so who cares. It's not a lack of QPF, seems to be a lack of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Corresponding snow map. I think the map you are posting is the 18z run. Anthony posted the 6z run. 6z DGEX is 14"-20" of snow for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 6, 2014 Author Share Posted March 6, 2014 32 ECMWF ensemble members had at least 6" of snow or more by day ten for Monticello, NY. 19 of those had 10"+. Why is that relevant for us? Only 13 members had 6"+ or more at KLGA and only 8 of those had over 10". So to say the least, 00z Euro ensembles favored areas to our north and west for snow. Just to reference, 22 members had over an inch of QPF at KLGA. this far out those comparisons mean nothing - example - this past weekends storm EURO also favored northern areas many days prior to the storm and we know what ended up verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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