IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Uh, wasn't talking about you...Oh ok, I was the one that posted the analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 4k NAM showing lots of rain and two lines of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 NAM goes from 52 to 26 in 3 hours in Central Park, from 3 to 6z Thursday. Low gets down to around 16 by daybreak, and only manages low 20s for the afternoon high. For mid March that's crazy. That would be the equivalent of highs in the low to mid teens in January given normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 NAM goes from 52 to 26 in 3 hours in Central Park, from 3 to 6z Thursday. Low gets down to around 16 by daybreak, and only manages low 20s for the afternoon high. For mid March that's crazy. That would be the equivalent of highs in the low to mid teens in January given normals. We did have that a couple times in Jan. Yea a high of lets say 25 is a -23 departure, which is nearly 3 sigma. That's ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 NAM still very dry for city...hard to believe with such a dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 NAM still very dry for city...hard to believe with such a dynamic system. The dynamics are there for sure, but they're all well north of here. Take a look at the HPC's heavy snowfall synoptic discussion: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I think we're going to see some 25-35" amounts pop up with this one Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Whoa, 00z GFS is awfully interesting for our NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 00z GFS is also double the QPF of the NAM away from CNJ and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Legit 2-4" totals from MMU N and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Legit 2-4" totals from MMU N and West. You're not reading the model right; yeah, its 0.34" at, say, Sussex, but that's during the crash, which means, at best, half of that isn't snow. I would estimate 1-2" in, say, Sussex County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 It looks like mostly rain even for those areas. Seems the snow shield lifts NNE and doesn't spread further east. However, I think all of us could see some flurries flying around Thursday morning Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 You're not reading the model right; yeah, its 0.34" at, say, Sussex, but that's during the crash, which means, at best, half of that isn't snow. I would estimate 1-2" in, say, Sussex County. SV maps have 2-4" NW of KMMU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 SV maps have 2-4" NW of KMMU I understand that, but the programming is assuming that, since its cold at 30, and such and such precip falls in the 6 hours before 30, then it must be all snow. Snow maps suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I understand that, but the programming is assuming that, since its cold at 30, and such and such precip falls in the 6 hours before 30, then it must be all snow. Snow maps suck. Good post and thanks for this. The snow maps are really useful for getting an idea of where the snow could fall but that's about it. There are so many ways for the algorithms flaws to be exposed including precipitation intensity, surface temperature, etc. They are really not worth looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Nam and GFS still look blah for today...anyone know how the 4k nam looks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Nam and GFS still look blah for today...anyone know how the 4k nam looks? It shows periods of rain, no big squall line like it showed yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The center should pass right over NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 The 12z GFS shows most of NNJ getting clipped by the heavy convection currently over PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Special Weather Statement SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1107 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ060>062-103-105-106-122000- SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON- WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK... TRENTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON... COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE... DOYLESTOWN 1107 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 ...PLUNGING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT... A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RAPIDLY FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND 20S TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. BE ON THE ALERT FOR RAPID CHANGES IN WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Rgem Total precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Just think of how our 55 degree air will be lifted up and used to demolish Lake George with snow when it cools and condenses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Obs: 53F / Smoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Wow congrats Maine! Fully expect to see 30" amounts in the nne mountains. They have been missing out most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Just taking a look at the State College Radar that's a pretty solid area of synoptic heavy rainfall. Thinking that we might over perform a little today in the rainfall department. Models have been struggling mightily with just how far SE the heavy rain makes it. Latest RAP has a pretty good slug of rain crossing the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Wow congrats Maine! Fully expect to see 30" amounts in the nne mountains. They have been missing out most of the winter. 2" liquid amounts up there could easily yield that amount since ratios should be over 15:1 towards the end of it. They almost always catch up at some point in the season-70 to 90" snow averages definitely mean something up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 the strongest part of the squall line is right near the low center in pa. that should bode well for us later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 the strongest part of the squall line is right near the low center in pa. that should bode well for us later on *for areas away for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Already down below 985mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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