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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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NAM goes from 52 to 26 in 3 hours in Central Park, from 3 to 6z Thursday. Low gets down to around 16 by daybreak, and only manages low 20s for the afternoon high. For mid March that's crazy. That would be the equivalent of highs in the low to mid teens in January given normals.

We did have that a couple times in Jan. Yea a high of lets say 25 is a -23 departure, which is nearly 3 sigma. That's ridiculous.

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I understand that, but the programming is assuming that, since its cold at 30, and such and such precip falls in the 6 hours before 30, then it must be all snow. Snow maps suck.

Good post and thanks for this. The snow maps are really useful for getting an idea of where the snow could fall but that's about it. There are so many ways for the algorithms flaws to be exposed including precipitation intensity, surface temperature, etc. They are really not worth looking at.

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Special Weather Statement


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

1107 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ060>062-103-105-106-122000-

SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-

WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-

WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...

FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...

TRENTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...

COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...

DOYLESTOWN

1107 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

...PLUNGING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PULL A STRONG COLD

FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, WINDS WILL

QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH ALONG AND

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S

EARLY THIS EVENING WILL RAPIDLY FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND 20S

TONIGHT. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN

THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING

TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES

DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD

MORNING.

BE ON THE ALERT FOR RAPID CHANGES IN WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER THIS

AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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Just taking a look at the State College Radar that's a pretty solid area of synoptic heavy rainfall. Thinking that we might over perform a little today in the rainfall department. Models have been struggling mightily with just how far SE the heavy rain makes it. Latest RAP has a pretty good slug of rain crossing the area.

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Wow congrats Maine! Fully expect to see 30" amounts in the nne mountains. They have been missing out most of the winter.

2" liquid amounts up there could easily yield that amount since ratios should be over 15:1 towards the end of it. They almost always catch up at some point in the season-70 to 90" snow averages definitely mean something up there.

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