jm1220 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Anyone expecting a "flash freeze" will likely be disappointed. We'll very likely have moderate rain, at most, and winds of 10-20 mph for at least 4-6 hours before temps reach below 32F, so that I'd expect convective drying (even with relatively moist air at 80-90% RH) to evaporate all of the water, except, perhaps for some larger puddles. Storm largely looks like a non-event for the I-95 corridor, at least, unless we can squeeze out some snow on the back end, which is iffy, at best... Right-the flash freeze will likely be well north and west of the city, north of the low track where cold air will come in faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 euro remains north. sfc based convection would be more likely with that solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Anyone expecting a "flash freeze" will likely be disappointed. We'll very likely have moderate rain, at most, and winds of 10-20 mph for at least 4-6 hours before temps reach below 32F, so that I'd expect convective drying (even with relatively moist air at 80-90% RH) to evaporate all of the water, except, perhaps for some larger puddles. Storm largely looks like a non-event for the I-95 corridor, at least, unless we can squeeze out some snow on the back end, which is iffy, at best...however a lot of water will settle into potholes and make them worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 SPC puts much of NJ in a 5% risk. 15% near Philly: ...THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... THE AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE -- E.G. MLCAPE AROUND 300-600 J/KG -- DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE COMBINATION OF /1/ AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION IN SOME AREAS IN THE WAKE OF EARLY-DAY...WARM-ADVECTION-ENCOURAGED CLOUDS/SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND /2/ STRONG NWD FLUXES OF RELATIVELY HIGHER THETA-E AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM/BUOYANT SECTOR WILL BE MODULATED TO SOME EXTENT BY DOWNWARD-DIRECTED SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES WITHIN THE SFC LAYER ATOP THE ONGOING SNOW PACK IN NRN PA AND NRN NJ. REGARDLESS...DIURNALLY ENHANCED BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES FROM SERN OHIO/ERN KY INTO WRN WV AND WRN PA BY MID-DAY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY QUICKLY SPREADING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-90-KT H5 JET CORE OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR BUOYANCY ABOVE A SWLY LLJ INCREASING TO 50-60 KT...WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED...ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO FAST MOVING QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES INVOF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS POTENTIAL BOLSTERED BY THE STRONG CROSS-FRONTAL...SYNOPTIC PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. AROUND 30-40 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR -- WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. THE GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE OF WV INTO NRN VA...CNTRL/WRN MD...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND S-CNTRL PA...WHICH MAY HAVE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY TO EXPERIENCE PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR-WIND EVENT TO TAKE PLACE IN THESE AREAS...POTENTIALLY WARRANTING HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEGREE OF INSOLATION-ENHANCED STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FOR WHICH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. ..COHEN.. 03/11/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The Euro gets NYC down to around 28.90 on the barometer which would be the lowest pressure in NYC since Sandy. The surface wind/convection threat is no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'm surprised we aren't going to see stronger winds on the backside of this beast. I get it that winds will be light while we are near the center but as its pulling away it should rip. ne board is getting excited for next week. I hope we don't get burned again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I'm surprised we aren't going to see stronger winds on the backside of this beast. I get it that winds will be light while we are near the center but as its pulling away it should rip. ne board is getting excited for next week. I hope we don't get burned again! The Euro has been giving them insane amounts of fictitious snows the past few days. The entire attitude of this forum would be different if it was a low 980's today over the mid-atlantic rather than right on top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 however a lot of water will settle into potholes and make them worse Without a doubt - tough year for the roads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 18Z NAM now gives us little to no precip from the warm front. Anything that falls will do so with the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 4K NAM continues to look impressive for a severe squall line. It should come through some time just after dark on Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 4K NAM continues to look impressive for a severe squall line. It should come through some time just after dark on Wednesday evening. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Sweet. The models have been pushing the warm front further and further NW over time. This has really caused precip type problems for areas to our north that were expecting mostly snow. For us it allows us to become truly warm sectored and we might be able to get enough clearing to get some good SBCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The models have been pushing the warm front further and further NW over time. This has really caused precip type problems for areas to our north that were expecting mostly snow. For us it allows us to become truly warm sectored and we might be able to get enough clearing to get some good SBCAPE. yea 18z is about 5 degrees warmer area wide than 12z and is probably too low. High for me today was only supposed to be 55 on 06z and I hit 66 lol ... The we go from 52 to 38 in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 yea 18z is about 5 degrees warmer area wide than 12z and is probably too low. High for me today was only supposed to be 55 on 06z and I hit 66 lol ... The we go from 52 to 38 in an hour It's not often you see Bradford, PA at 18 and Indiana, PA at 61. The two cities are maybe 120 miles apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Also not too often we have a 982 mb low pass right over us and receive 0.10 in. precip like the nam shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Cold air should be rushing in around midnight so the exact timing will make a big difference for midnight high temps for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 18z GFS looks just a hair south of the consensus, like 12z. QPF >1" away from the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Though the snow maps on SV don't show it, ~0.25" or so falls after temps drop below freezing from NYC and points west. Looks like a car topper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Essentially the GFS stalls out the warm front over our area. We never get warm sectored. Instead we get periods of heavy rain, borderline excessive given ongoing snow melt for those of us that live north of 80. If the NAM had this type of setup, it would probably be spitting out over 2" of rain for us given its tendency to overdo things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Lol this was being compared to 93 lol I doubt we get any severe weather, we don't do that well in June let alone March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Lol this was being compared to 93 lol I doubt we get any severe weather, we don't do that well in June let alone March Nobody has compared this to 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Lol this was being compared to 93 lol I doubt we get any severe weather, we don't do that well in June let alone March We seem to do better with covection in winter than summer of late lol....i saw more lighting in the snow storm last month than i did all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's not often you see Bradford, PA at 18 and Indiana, PA at 61. The two cities are maybe 120 miles apart. Hell of a car ride lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I guess that was back in January. Temperature dropped 35 degrees over 2 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Nobody has compared this to 93 Apparently some people were... otherwise this post wouldn't exist. http://www.theweatherspace.com/2014/03/06/is-another-march-1993-superstorm-coming-next-week/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Apparently some people were... otherwise this post wouldn't exist. http://www.theweatherspace.com/2014/03/06/is-another-march-1993-superstorm-coming-next-week/ "For a pattern like March 1993 to happen you need a rare circumstance where a surface low develops around the TN/AL border and moves northeast from there up through the Mid-Atlantic." wat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Apparently some people were... otherwise this post wouldn't exist. http://www.theweatherspace.com/2014/03/06/is-another-march-1993-superstorm-coming-next-week/ That top Analog suggestion for storms and patterns have made things worse! Weenies go crazy with them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 "For a pattern like March 1993 to happen you need a rare circumstance where a surface low develops around the TN/AL border and moves northeast from there up through the Mid-Atlantic." wat? Hmm, yeah apparently he's not familiar with the synoptic history of the superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Hmm, yeah apparently he's not familiar with the synoptic history of the superstorm.I'm actually well educated on the matter. Reporting what CIPS shows does not imply ignorance. I never said I agreed with that being a good analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 I'm actually well educated on the matter. Reporting what CIPS shows does not imply ignorance. I never said I agreed with that being a good analog. Uh, wasn't talking about you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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