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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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Gut feeling with this one is that all of the models will now trend to a solution that is a bit further southeast. They tend to overdo a northern jump 2 days prior to the event, only to shift SE, and sometimes even come back north a tad within 1 day. Places from Detroit to Maine should get hammered with 10 to 30 inches of snow. I still think we get a dusting from this

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Any analog differs more than the individuals members of a given ensemble set do from themselves and look at the spread of the outcomes they can produce! A few may even look like '93, but it is not that important. Note: The OP back then failed to predict the 20" amts. on the southern rim of precip. shield and dry slotted us with 10" and a super low air pressure.

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Looks like a good chance for an inch or two of snow on the backedge as surface and mid level temps rapidly drop with some moisture hanging on. Flash freeze potential is there but have to see if other models agree.

Look for some modest hail if we do manage to get that intense convection. The combination of modest updrafts and low freezing levels could deliver the goods.
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Looks like a good chance for an inch or two of snow on the backedge as surface and mid level temps rapidly drop with some moisture hanging on. Flash freeze potential is there but have to see if other models agree.

Any deformation snow behind the low should remain well north of us, maybe getting down to NW CT. I doubt there's much of anything here once the air gets cold enough.

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Shortwave forced low-topped squall line on the 12z NAM. Notice the clearing lineahead it reaches as far north as NE NJ/NYC. So there may be small window to destabilize at the surface. Though, I'm not expecting alot of severe wind reports, on northern edge of the squall line.

 

2q3vnl0.jpg

 

 

2vi48jb.jpg

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The 12z GFS really nails NNJ with the warm front and the squall line. We appear to be very close to something that would produce excessive rainfall for the area. Snow pack north of 80 remains substantial enough to cause some river flooding if we can get enough widespread heavy rain.

Zilch  in terms of back end snow? a bombing low to our east and NOTHING?

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A few days ago I expressed my concerns about being near the track of the surface low and lack of precipitation. You can see how all of the best forcing is displaced well to our north and northwest. The image below tells you everything that you need to know.

 

gfs_namer_039_700_rh_ht.gif

 

The 12z NAM is a bit less pessimistic nam_namer_039_700_rh_ht.gif

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The lack of any true blocking really killed us this year. Don't mean to banter, but if we had it we might of seen 100 inches this season. There were many times where the pattern would of produced a HECS if things slowed down a bit.  I'm willing to bet it'll develop just in time for a cool and rainy spring. :maprain:

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A few days ago I expressed my concerns about being near the track of the surface low and lack of precipitation. You can see how all of the best forcing is displaced well to our north and northwest. The image below tells you everything that you need to know.

 

gfs_namer_039_700_rh_ht.gif

 

The 12z NAM is a bit less pessimistic nam_namer_039_700_rh_ht.gif

That's been known for quite some time now. North of the warm front is where the most lifting is and therefore we may just see a line of heavy showers with the cold front. For the most part, people in this forum will have a yawner of a storm. The most interesting features may be when it is already gone with the fast freeze and strong NW wind.

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Anyone expecting a "flash freeze" will likely be disappointed.  We'll very likely have moderate rain, at most, and winds of 10-20 mph for at least 4-6 hours before temps reach below 32F, so that I'd expect convective drying (even with relatively moist air at 80-90% RH) to evaporate all of the water, except, perhaps for some larger puddles.  Storm largely looks like a non-event for the I-95 corridor, at least, unless we can squeeze out some snow on the back end, which is iffy, at best...

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