IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 They also increased the snow a touch and the plumes have about 1.50" now for KLGA: The SREF mean bumped the 0.75"+ contour 50 miles southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 NAM is south through hour 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 who cares what the nam says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Sub 984mb right over NJ. Low track looks identical to 06z. Maybe even a tick north with the heaviest QPF. This run looks drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Gut feeling with this one is that all of the models will now trend to a solution that is a bit further southeast. They tend to overdo a northern jump 2 days prior to the event, only to shift SE, and sometimes even come back north a tad within 1 day. Places from Detroit to Maine should get hammered with 10 to 30 inches of snow. I still think we get a dusting from this Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Sub 984mb right over NJ. Low track looks identical to 06z. Maybe even a tick north with the heaviest QPF. This run looks drier. And a bit warmer in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Any analog differs more than the individuals members of a given ensemble set do from themselves and look at the spread of the outcomes they can produce! A few may even look like '93, but it is not that important. Note: The OP back then failed to predict the 20" amts. on the southern rim of precip. shield and dry slotted us with 10" and a super low air pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 12z NAM is significantly drier than 06z. We'll see what the 4k NAM has to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 12z NAM is significantly drier than 06z. We'll see what the 4k NAM has to show. If its more of a frontal passage/convective in nature that makes sense. The nam won't pick up heavier amounts that could fall in thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like a good chance for an inch or two of snow on the backedge as surface and mid level temps rapidly drop with some moisture hanging on. Flash freeze potential is there but have to see if other models agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Warm front makes it a bit further NW this run. Drier with the warm front but stronger with the cold frontal squall line passage. 0.75"+ pretty much area wide. Squall line looks intense. (per 4k NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like a good chance for an inch or two of snow on the backedge as surface and mid level temps rapidly drop with some moisture hanging on. Flash freeze potential is there but have to see if other models agree.Look for some modest hail if we do manage to get that intense convection. The combination of modest updrafts and low freezing levels could deliver the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Looks like a good chance for an inch or two of snow on the backedge as surface and mid level temps rapidly drop with some moisture hanging on. Flash freeze potential is there but have to see if other models agree. Any deformation snow behind the low should remain well north of us, maybe getting down to NW CT. I doubt there's much of anything here once the air gets cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Shortwave forced low-topped squall line on the 12z NAM. Notice the clearing lineahead it reaches as far north as NE NJ/NYC. So there may be small window to destabilize at the surface. Though, I'm not expecting alot of severe wind reports, on northern edge of the squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 This is why we need blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 12z GFS SUB 980MB OVER THE TWIN FORKS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 who cares what the nam says I don't like posts like this - at least explain why you think the NAM model is not worth considering at this point in time ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 12z GFS really nails NNJ with the warm front and the squall line. We appear to be very close to something that would produce excessive rainfall for the area. Snow pack north of 80 remains substantial enough to cause some river flooding if we can get enough widespread heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 As disappointing as it is to miss a chance at a major snowstorm, a ~980 mb surface low over NYC is still fairly anomalous. It will be an interesting storm to watch and I hope to see lots of impressive obs from upstate NY and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 12z GFS really nails NNJ with the warm front and the squall line. We appear to be very close to something that would produce excessive rainfall for the area. Snow pack north of 80 remains substantial enough to cause some river flooding if we can get enough widespread heavy rain. Zilch in terms of back end snow? a bombing low to our east and NOTHING? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Zilch in terms of back end snow? a bombing low to our east and NOTHING? The 850mb low passes over Upstate NY, that's your problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The system is tilted, 700mb low passes over Rochester and Albany, 850mb low passes over the LHV, H5 never closes off, all of these point towards the best dynamics being too far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Let's for one second pretend that the surface low passes off the Delmarva instead of NJ. Currently none of the modeling is showing this as a possibility, but if it were to occur, the mid-levels would still torch. We'd be looking at buckets of sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 12 Z NAM/GFS indicate the interior flip over to snow late and a few inches is possible. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 12 Z NAM/GFS indicate the interior flip over to snow late and a few inches is possible. Best If anyone has a chance of seeing snow with this one it's the higher elevations of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 A few days ago I expressed my concerns about being near the track of the surface low and lack of precipitation. You can see how all of the best forcing is displaced well to our north and northwest. The image below tells you everything that you need to know. The 12z NAM is a bit less pessimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The lack of any true blocking really killed us this year. Don't mean to banter, but if we had it we might of seen 100 inches this season. There were many times where the pattern would of produced a HECS if things slowed down a bit. I'm willing to bet it'll develop just in time for a cool and rainy spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 IDK...I lived in Plainview in the middle of it all..for 23 years...and I remember t-storms...and a lot of them...with more power outages than Carter's got liverpills...lol. I grew up in plainview, right across the street from POBHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 A few days ago I expressed my concerns about being near the track of the surface low and lack of precipitation. You can see how all of the best forcing is displaced well to our north and northwest. The image below tells you everything that you need to know. The 12z NAM is a bit less pessimistic That's been known for quite some time now. North of the warm front is where the most lifting is and therefore we may just see a line of heavy showers with the cold front. For the most part, people in this forum will have a yawner of a storm. The most interesting features may be when it is already gone with the fast freeze and strong NW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Anyone expecting a "flash freeze" will likely be disappointed. We'll very likely have moderate rain, at most, and winds of 10-20 mph for at least 4-6 hours before temps reach below 32F, so that I'd expect convective drying (even with relatively moist air at 80-90% RH) to evaporate all of the water, except, perhaps for some larger puddles. Storm largely looks like a non-event for the I-95 corridor, at least, unless we can squeeze out some snow on the back end, which is iffy, at best... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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