CIK62 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The SREF PLUME can't even get close to the present temp., just 6 hours into its forecast range! For LGA it predicted 39 degs. and it is already 51degs.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The SREF PLUME can't even get close to the present temp., just 6 hours into its forecast range! For LGA it predicted 39 degs. and it is already 51degs.! Another downslope warming special like we saw over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 If we verified exactly as is the Euro at day 10, NYC would be up well over 100" of snow by now probably. Remember the "awesome setups" that were predicted in mid February and early this month supported by Euro snow maps with 20-30" on the ground? Anyone intelligent should just disregard these storm threats that appear.Someone has turned off the physics package on the models or is tampering with the programming. Else they are being fed some bad boos---data! Without the laws of gravity and thermodynamics to guide them they become CARTOONS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The SREF PLUME can't even get close to the present temp., just 6 hours into its forecast range! For LGA it predicted 39 degs. and it is already 51degs.! Models underestimate temperatures when there are no leaves on trees as well. Evapotranspiration usually cools temps down a couple of degrees and this doesn't seem to be captured correctly on models when there are bare trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Models underestimate temperatures when there are no leaves on trees as well. Evapotranspiration usually cools temps down a couple of degrees and this doesn't seem to be captured correctly on models when there are bare trees. They also skew severely towards climo on temps so if you get a big heat wave in April where it's likely gonna be 93 four days out the MOS assuming your climatological norm is 65 is probably only gonna show a high of 80-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Its not the first time the Euro doesnt show a storm on 0z...and then brings it back on 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 They also skew severely towards climo on temps so if you get a big heat wave in April where it's likely gonna be 93 four days out the MOS assuming your climatological norm is 65 is probably only gonna show a high of 80-85Yeah but the current 850mb is 7.4C over the norm right now and I think the SREF should have added 13 degrees to the norm of 33 and at least have predicted 46 degs., not the 39 it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yeah but the current 850mb is 7.4C over the norm right now and I think the SREF should have added 13 degrees to the norm of 33 and at least have predicted 46 degs., not the 39 it did. You have to go above guidance for warm downslope days like we saw on Saturday. Models just don't handle it very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 The 06z 4k NAM is actually showing the 0.75"+ contour slicing from Allentown, PA ENE through the Bronx and then through central LI with most of Suffolk County 0.75"+ with a lot more just NW of that line. Spotty 2"+ amounts in the Poconos and LHV. Heavy convection hours 36-42 with the warm frontal passage and then a wicked squall line crosses the area hours 45-48 as the cold front swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 FWIW SuperStorm 93' was the #1 analog over the east last night at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Pretty big shift southeast on the new SREF's. 03z had the 0.75"+ contour slicing through far NW Sussex County and NW Orange Counties. The latest 09z has the 0.75"+ contour southeast of KMMU and slicing through southern Westchester County. Will this mean anything in the end? Who knows, but that was about a 50 mile shift southeast. Most places in the LHV are now >1" QPF comfortably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 FWIW SuperStorm 93' was the #1 analog over the east last night at 60 hours. Those analog lists are really for entertainment value only. There won't be one flake of snow south of I-80 from the PA state line east this time, while the 1993 storm had 2 feet of snow all the way down to western NC and several inches to the Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 FWIW SuperStorm 93' was the #1 analog over the east last night at 60 hours.Bro. Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Well in the real world where apparently only some of us exist, it is AWESOME out. If you don't like this weather come March, seek help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Their is no harm in stating what it shows, nobody says that you have to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Their is no harm in stating what it shows, nobody says that you have to agree. Just like there is no harm posting the 384hr GFS because it is there... Post sensible things man, not just whatever you see. Relating to us that one model has March 93 as the #1 analog, when you know FULL well that is probably the most absurd claim imaginable, isn't helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Well in the real world where apparently only some of us exist, it is AWESOME out. If you don't like this weather come March, seek help. It was 50-70 degrees for 15 straight days from March 1st to 15th in 2004. Then it snowed for 4 straight days from March 16-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It was 50-70 degrees for 15 straight days from March 1st to 15th in 2004. Then it snowed for 4 straight days from March 16-19. Haha, everyone up here must have flipped out. Of course the cold weather isn't done just yet (now that would be a stupid thing to claim in March), but today is merely a sign of the inexorable march of the change of seasons. Enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Just like there is no harm posting the 384hr GFS because it is there... Post sensible things man, not just whatever you see. Relating to us that one model has March 93 as the #1 analog, when you know FULL well that is probably the most absurd claim imaginable, isn't helpful. It's noteworthy when the #1 analog at 60 hours from CIPS has that storm. How can you compare that to a 384hr GFS? This is going to be a very powerful low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's noteworthy when the #1 analog at 60 hours from CIPS has that storm. This is going to be a very powerful low. we don't need analogs to know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 we don't need analogs to know that And I never said that we did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's noteworthy when the #1 analog at 60 hours from CIPS has that storm. How can you compare that to a 384hr GFS? This is going to be a very powerful low. There are many powerful lows in and around the eastern 2/3 of the country every year. There are NOT that many March 93s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 There are many powerful lows in and around the eastern 2/3 of the country every year. There are NOT that many March 93s... Of course not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 This is about as rare a track you ever see for a deep low, places like Toronto and buffalo get slammed by a synoptic system every 3-4 years or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Haha, everyone up here must have flipped out. Of course the cold weather isn't done just yet (now that would be a stupid thing to claim in March), but today is merely a sign of the inexorable march of the change of seasons. Enjoy it. Just trying to point out that even if it's 100 degrees for 7 straight days, March is a crazy ass month and could quickly flip for 2-3 days. It's the reason why people that are making definitive statements that NYC will not see anymore snow are foolish, IMO. You can not make those kinds of definitive statements in March. Especially when the pattern supports below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 It's noteworthy when the #1 analog at 60 hours from CIPS has that storm. How can you compare that to a 384hr GFS? This is going to be a very powerful low. March 1993 was already down in the 970s over GA, this will be the same strength over the Gulf of Maine. March 1993 was a miller A that formed east of Texas, this will track from St. Louis to between Boston and Cape Cod. There have been many powerful lows between then and now, this will be nowhere even in the same ballpark in terms of impact to March 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Just trying to point out that even if it's 100 degrees for 7 straight days, March is a crazy ass month and could quickly flip for 2-3 days. It's the reason why people that are making definitive statements that NYC will not see anymore snow are foolish, IMO. You can not make those kinds of definitive statements in March. Especially when the pattern supports below normal temps. Who said it wasn't going to snow any more? I think claims of historic snow a week+ out in March, BECAUSE of its chaotic nature, are just as foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Temps look to stay in the 20's for Thursday...Unfortunately looks like a midnight high of 40-50 (depending on speed of front) to screw things up for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 9z SREF's increased low topped squall thunder potential tomorrow evening. SREF_prob_cptp_1__f042.gif They also increased the snow a touch and the plumes have about 1.50" now for KLGA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 March 1993 was already down in the 970s over GA, this will be the same strength over the Gulf of Maine. March 1993 was a miller A that formed east of Texas, this will track from St. Louis to between Boston and Cape Cod. There have been many powerful lows between then and now, this will be nowhere even in the same ballpark in terms of impact to March 1993. I don't need a lesson on 93' but thanks. I'm not saying that I agree it's a good analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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