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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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The models are trending even stronger with this storm, I wonder if we could see a line of gusty t-storms if this continues as temps drop from mid 50s to 20s over a few hours. Winds look very gusty after the storm and also the storm seems to have slowed down a bit.

I agree with this. Was alluding to this earlier today.

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its really disheartening when we get our best lapse rates during the winter and when we need them in the summer time for the thunderstorms its like pulling hens teeth.....

Summer lapse rates are generally weaker as the Bermuda High has near complete control of our weather from about late June on.
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The models are trending even stronger with this storm, I wonder if we could see a line of gusty t-storms if this continues as temps drop from mid 50s to 20s over a few hours. Winds look very gusty after the storm and also the storm seems to have slowed down a bit.

Think Flood Watches or Wind Advisories/ Watches to be issued?

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Guest Pamela

yea its just always a let down when every storm loses almost all its punch from NYC on east

 

I'm sorry...just have to register my disagreement again with these blanket assertions...

 

I think I quoted you a while back and gave this response...

 

 

I don't keep a rain gauge over here...and you probably make a fair statement about the fact that genuine severe weather not being that common in the area (i.e. large hail, damaging winds, & tornadoes)...but I can definitely say that there is a considerable amount of moderate thunderstorm & thundershower activity in the Port Jefferson area during the summertime...so much so that the only genuine drought around here in the last 20 years was during the Summer of 2005...broken by the astonishing rains of October 2005...locally over 20 inches worth.   Moreover, my sprinkler system went out in 2007 and I haven't been able to get it running since...but it hasn't mattered one bit because there has been so much summertime thunderstorm activity around here the last 6 years no irrigation has been needed. 

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Guest Pamela

let me edit that. except for the north shore of LI ;)

 

IDK...I lived in Plainview in the middle of it all..for 23 years...and I remember t-storms...and a lot of them...with more power outages than Carter's got liverpills...lol.

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IDK...I lived in Plainview in the middle of it all..for 23 years...and I remember t-storms...and a lot of them...with more power outages than Carter's got liverpills...lol.

where I am in SW Suffolk trust me severe storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning and small hail has been a rarity. in Nassau they have more juice but once they cross the Suffolk/Nassau border especially the south shore of LI storms just cant keep it together the past several years atleast

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This will make weenies say "Just when I thought I was out, they bring me back in". 18z NAVGEM is much further SE, snow down to the coastnavgem_mslp_pcpn_neus_10.png

No it wont :). Hope has been lost on this one. No way you can drag any sane person 2 hope for a snowy scenario. Models wont radically change within 48 hrs ;)

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No it wont :). Hope has been lost on this one. No way you can drag any sane person 2 hope for a snowy scenario. Models wont radically change within 48 hrs ;)

Models can and will radically change in a 48 hr window (remember last week??) but this is probably not one of those cases.

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