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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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At this point the only thing left to do is root on the dryslot. Man, what a disappointing turn of events for snow enthusiasts the past several weeks.

A little disappointing but can't complain. We had pretty much constant snow from early December to mid February, and NYC had the 7th snowiest winter of all time. A great winter, even if it ended a little early snow wise. March used to be a snowier month on average than December, but in most recent years December has been doing better instead. Would rather have winter start early than end late anyway. In March I start looking forward to warmer weather.

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2 inches of liquid at Killington , Temps in the single digits with 850`s around Minus 12 .

With that wind, would love to see some of the drifts up there.

Yep locking in a trip up there. Originally I was thinking Stratton but I think that might be to far south and they could go over to sleet. Looks to be the best weekend I the year up there for sure as it will be warmish and sunny after 2 feet or possibly more in upslope areas
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Upstate is a large area if you consider it as Buffalo to Albany and all points in between.  During the winter, WNY and CNY have little to talk about synoptically, as they are mostly lake effect.  Eastern Upstate, like the Albany area, is more dependent on east coast storms for its snow.  Not much of a reason to root against one another most of the time.  For WNY to do well with a storm, they need it running up over my head here in the Saratoga area, which they may get this time at the rate this is going.  Doesn't happen often, so they can have it.  Still more winter to go up here, we're not out of the woods just yet. 

Thats reasonable , tends to happen when 20 plus inches of snow are on the way .  

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Yep locking in a trip up there. Originally I was thinking Stratton but I think that might be to far south and they could go over to sleet. Looks to be the best weekend I the year up there for sure as it will be warmish and sunny after 2 feet or possibly more in upslope areas

I'm off Thursday and seriously considering leaving 2am to get to Killington for opening Thursday but my concern is conditions headed up there.

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Still nothing like last week's 4 threads all for a dusting.

Disagree somewhat, as that storm barely missed us - people 60 miles south of me got 6" of snow and it looked like at least some snow right up until the last minute.  This week's storm never really got me that excited, since it was looking like mostly rain from 4-5 days out - hard to get too excited over 6-7 day out model runs that show a snow/rain mix for our area and then trend the wrong way.  Usually, once we're past mid-March, it's rare for snow in these parts, although I'd still love a late March early April surprise snowstorm (and most of them in that timeframe are surprises) to give us 8", so I can break 70" for the season...

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In a sense the models have become too good at sniffing out long range threats. People think that just because it shows up even for a few days in a row that it's a lock.

You didnt know that next weeks threat was a lock??? You should know better, some of our highly regarded weenies are beating the drum on its "historical" possibilities

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Is this even a weather forum, you still have a powerful storm coming through and potential flash freeze going from like low 60s to 20s in a few hours. As a weather enthusiast I love the pattern coming up, who cares if snow is done. We've had more than enough of that this season. Winds could be very strong as well and I hope the Euro continues very strong.

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At this point the only thing left to do is root on the dryslot. Man, what a disappointing turn of events for snow enthusiasts the past several weeks.

We had a good run of luck with the favorable EPO and waves along the arctic fronts which trended stronger and wetter as they came close to verification. It was inevitable that it would run out eventually without help from the NAO. But still, a winter with 60" of snow in many places is a great one in any book.

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Is this even a weather forum, you still have a powerful storm coming through and potential flash freeze going from like low 60s to 20s in a few hours. As a weather enthusiast I love the pattern coming up, who cares if snow is done. We've had more than enough of that this season. Winds could be very strong as well and I hope the Euro continues very strong.

Interestingly if you look at the nam sim radar and thermal profiles as the mid level features move in from the West it almost strikes me as a low topped squall line with very gusty wind potential.

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We had a good run of luck with the favorable EPO and waves along the arctic fronts which trended stronger and wetter as they came close to verification. It was inevitable that it would run out eventually without help from the NAO. But still, a winter with 60" of snow in many places is a great one in any book.

 

Pattern over the next 15 days is still supportive of cold storms.

Ensemble products are very active in the day 6-14 period.

 

We've had bad luck with these last 2 storms but that doesn't mean that it's completely over.

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You didnt know that next weeks threat was a lock??? You should know better, some of our highly regarded weenies are beating the drum on its "historical" possibilities

I was never enthused or impressed by this storm coming up (I went a few days with barely posting anything), and don't see many more possibilities coming up. We will need a huge amount of luck for one of these upcoming threats to be amplified enough for snow here but not be a cutter or too warm.

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People would be upset if nearby got 30" and they only got 22

Places in eastern NJ had 30" in Boxing Day and I had 18-20", but I still consider it one of my all time favorite storms for the combination of the snow with ferocious winds. In terms of a true blizzard, it's likely the worst I've seen since January 1996.

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I was thinking stratton cause that's where I learned to ski and it has a special place in my heart however I think Killington is going to get absolutely rocked.

There are going to be winners and losers up there for sure which is rare. Killington is pretty damn tall and significantly far north. Even there though 850s could warm for a time and drop sleet and ruin an epic storm. Going further north sugarbush looks safe and Stowe and jay will be fine but then the drive becomes ridiculous.

What a shame for the near by mountains as they are going to take a beating!

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Someone remind me, was someone hyping the last few weeks?  JB maybe?

Not that I'm aware of (I don't follow JB), but the storm track has been active and the cold air has been relentless, so it's almost a bit surprising that it hasn't snowed much since mid-Feb. I have seen only a few flakes since Feb 18th, but instead over an inch of rain and cirrus outflow from a couple suppressed systems. I would totally take 59", 6 weeks of constant snowpack, and a dozen subzero nights every winter, but the greedy weenie in me says the full potential was not realized.

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There are going to be winners and losers up there for sure which is rare. Killington is pretty damn tall and significantly far north. Even there though 850s could warm for a time and drop sleet and ruin an epic storm. Going further north sugarbush looks safe and Stowe and jay will be fine but then the drive becomes ridiculous.

What a shame for the near by mountains as they are going to take a beating!

There's a warm layer though that comes ahead of the 850mb 0c line, so areas north by 50 miles or so may still go over to sleet based on the warm air at 750-800mb. The 850 low looks like it tracks through the southern half of VT/NH so you would think at least up to there mixes. You want to be NW of wherever the 850 low tracks.

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