Keith O Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I said this 3 days ago. Welcome aboard. We're barely going to get any rain out of this! Pretty much a glorified cold frontal passage with 1 day of well below after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Spot on my friend. Im just looking to see when this -EPO will break so we can get the SE ridge to flex its muscles and get the warm weather in here for true spring weather. Winter is dead to me now, it was one hell of a winter with alot of snow and close to historic cold, i dont know how much more you could ask for after what mother nature delivered in a winter were most teleconnectors were terrible Well the next threat is actually suppressed right now so definitely must be watched. This late in the year, a trend north could very well happen. Hopefully not too far north. And yes, of course I know there are different types. But snow is my favorite. Hurricanes are fun to track, but I don't like heat or regular severe thunderstorms. Agree that this current threat looks done with the north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The 4k NAM basically shows some scattered thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Well the next threat is actually suppressed right now so definitely must be watched. This late in the year, a trend north could very well happen. Hopefully not too far north. And yes, of course I know there are different types. But snow is my favorite. Agree that this current threat looks done with the north trend. Why? It hasn't gotten to Detroit yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Why? It hasn't gotten to Detroit yet! I mean finished for snow. It could still go more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 What a disaster this storm is turning out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The 12z NAM isn't that much farther north than 0z Euro last night. 60s and t-storms would be possible in CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 What a disaster this storm is turning out to be. serves you right for getting excited over the euro at day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 What a disaster this storm is turning out to be. That`s because you bit on 2 Op runs 8 days out and think they are locks .You ignore the immediate trend away from a snowstorm in the days following . 3- 4 Days ago the Euro showed you the heaviest snow from W NY thru NNE . Thats never an EC cold solution . If you live in the fantasy range that`s what you get . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 What a disaster this storm is turning out to be.Still a very good winter regardless of what happens. Glad both our sub forums did well also. NAM also shows upstate NY getting the brunt of the storm. Would severe weather be a threat to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 It's the 1st run with the Pac vort fully sampled. It's so far north, that NYC barely gets light rain on this run and southern NJ gets drizzle. IMO, the increased sampling by itself should not have led to such a dramatic change (storm details e.g., qpf). This big change probably says more about the individual model's handling of the possible storm than a big change in the storm's possible impact. The ECMWF and GFS probably have a better handle and one probably won't see such a dramatic change on either of those models. The GFS will be initializing shortly. At least in my view, this still looks like a mainly rain event ending as some snow scenario for NYC/nearby suburbs (maybe a possible coating to an inch or so?). It also looks like a moderate precipitation-producer (generally 0.50" to 1.00" rather than widespread 1.00" or above amounts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 IMO, the increased sampling by itself should not have led to such a dramatic change (storm details e.g., qpf). This big change probably says more about the individual model's handling of the possible storm than a big change in the storm's possible impact. The ECMWF and GFS probably have a better handle and one probably won't see such a dramatic change on either of those models. The GFS will be initializing shortly. At least in my view, this still looks like a mainly rain event ending as some snow scenario for NYC/nearby suburbs (maybe a possible coating to an inch or so?). It also looks like a moderate precipitation-producer (generally 0.50" to 1.00" rather than widespread 1.00" or above amounts). Looks like the GFS is about to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 wish we could get this storm track in may/june Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Both the 12z GFS and NAM are a whopping .30"-.36"of total rain, over a 12 hour period. Basically drizzle and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Both the 12z GFS and NAM are a whopping .30"-.36"of total rain, over a 12 hour period. Basically drizzle and light rain. we need to be north of the wf for any synoptic scale lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 wish we could get this storm track in may/june True, i would love some severe weather that would actually deliver for once. Cant rememeber the last time we had a fropa with a nice sustained line of storms all the way through the coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 wow, what a deep storm. the nw winds behind the low look impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Wow, GFS lurched north too. Pretty much nada south of Saratoga. You would pretty much have to be in the Adirondacks, northern NH, VT, and ME to see mostly snow. This looks like it'll be a great storm for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 serves you right for getting excited over the euro at day 8 42 pages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 UKMET is lurching north too, through SNE with the track. I have to laugh at a 42 page thread ending up possibly verifying as scattered showers. Anyone Albany and south is looking increasingly torched. Maybe even up to Glens Falls if this trend keeps up-plenty of warm mid level air for sleet is present here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I think the handwriting is on the wall, winter is over as far as snow goes, now lets get some above normal temps for a change to make it feel like spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 What a beast of a storm though, the winds could be very impressive with this. I'm hoping the storm trends further to the NW and stronger so we could maybe have a chance at some tstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 UKMET is lurching north too, through SNE with the track. I have to laugh at a 42 page thread ending up possibly verifying as scattered showers. Anyone Albany and south is looking increasingly torched. Maybe even up to Glens Falls if this trend keeps up-plenty of warm mid level air for sleet is present here too. Still nothing like last week's 4 threads all for a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The 12z UKMET has deep low over NE PA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I think the handwriting is on the wall, winter is over as far as snow goes, now lets get some above normal temps for a change to make it feel like spring! I don't see what this storm has to do with whether we get anymore snow or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I don't see what this storm has to do with whether we get anymore snow or not. We also thought the last one was going to be a big storm. I'm just saying for a large storm time is running out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 2 inches of liquid at Killington , Temps in the single digits with 850`s around Minus 12 . With that wind, would love to see some of the drifts up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Looks like the GFS is about to agree. Duly noted. It did take a big step in that direction. It will be interesting to see what the ECMWF shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Duly noted. It did take a big step in that direction. It will be interesting to see what the ECMWF shows. This has been the control track since Thrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I was just checking the upstate forum. The posters are so much less rude to each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.