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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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Spot on my friend. Im just looking to see when this -EPO will break so we can get the SE ridge to flex its muscles and get the warm weather in here for true spring weather. Winter is dead to me now, it was one hell of a winter with alot of snow and close to historic cold, i dont know how much more you could ask for after what mother nature delivered in a winter were most teleconnectors were terrible

Well the next threat is actually suppressed right now so definitely must be watched. This late in the year, a trend north could very well happen. Hopefully not too far north.

And yes, of course I know there are different types. But snow is my favorite. Hurricanes are fun to track, but I don't like heat or regular severe thunderstorms.

Agree that this current threat looks done with the north trend.

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Well the next threat is actually suppressed right now so definitely must be watched. This late in the year, a trend north could very well happen. Hopefully not too far north.

And yes, of course I know there are different types. But snow is my favorite.

Agree that this current threat looks done with the north trend.

Why? It hasn't gotten to Detroit yet!

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What a disaster this storm is turning out to be.

That`s because you bit on  2 Op runs 8 days out and think they are locks .You ignore the immediate trend away from a snowstorm in the days following .  3- 4  Days ago the Euro showed you the heaviest snow from W NY  thru NNE . Thats never an EC cold solution .

If you live in the fantasy range that`s what you get . 

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It's the 1st run with the Pac vort fully sampled.

It's so far north, that NYC barely gets light rain on this run and southern NJ gets drizzle.

IMO, the increased sampling by itself should not have led to such a dramatic change (storm details e.g., qpf). This big change probably says more about the individual model's handling of the possible storm than a big change in the storm's possible impact. The ECMWF and GFS probably have a better handle and one probably won't see such a dramatic change on either of those models.  The GFS will be initializing shortly.

 

At least in my view, this still looks like a mainly rain event ending as some snow scenario for NYC/nearby suburbs (maybe a possible coating to an inch or so?). It also looks like a moderate precipitation-producer (generally 0.50" to 1.00" rather than widespread 1.00" or above amounts).

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IMO, the increased sampling by itself should not have led to such a dramatic change (storm details e.g., qpf). This big change probably says more about the individual model's handling of the possible storm than a big change in the storm's possible impact. The ECMWF and GFS probably have a better handle and one probably won't see such a dramatic change on either of those models.  The GFS will be initializing shortly.

 

At least in my view, this still looks like a mainly rain event ending as some snow scenario for NYC/nearby suburbs (maybe a possible coating to an inch or so?). It also looks like a moderate precipitation-producer (generally 0.50" to 1.00" rather than widespread 1.00" or above amounts).

 

 

Looks like the GFS is about to agree.

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UKMET is lurching north too, through SNE with the track. I have to laugh at a 42 page thread ending up possibly verifying as scattered showers.

 

Anyone Albany and south is looking increasingly torched. Maybe even up to Glens Falls if this trend keeps up-plenty of warm mid level air for sleet is present here too.

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UKMET is lurching north too, through SNE with the track. I have to laugh at a 42 page thread ending up possibly verifying as scattered showers.

 

Anyone Albany and south is looking increasingly torched. Maybe even up to Glens Falls if this trend keeps up-plenty of warm mid level air for sleet is present here too.

Still nothing like last week's 4 threads all for a dusting.

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