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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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The upcoming storm is a done deal for us, all rain unless north of I-84. The writing has been on the wall for days. After the nice weather this weekend I'm over these threats, so I'll take it. We could use the rain anyway to wash away the salt and knock down some of the ugly ice piles. Time to move onto Spring.

Preach my friend PREACH! Warm weather means going down to robert moses boat basin to eat some dinner after work or lunch on my day and clean my car without getting frostbite ;)

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One last hoorrah would be nice but I am ready to start working on ball fields. It was a great winter although that one big one always slipped away...

No worries if we can get that weak-moderate el nino next winter and some blocking to go along with some cold weather we may get our shot next year. Until then lets get into spring mode

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The upcoming storm is a done deal for us, all rain unless north of I-84. The writing has been on the wall for days. After the nice weather this weekend I'm over these threats, so I'll take it. We could use the rain anyway to wash away the salt and knock down some of the ugly ice piles. Time to move onto Spring.

Winter is not that long a season. And some don't tire of tracking snow until April. Let us enjoy tracking snow when the threats are there; it IS a weather board.

Barring a major shift today this will likely be mostly rain, but at least one more threat still on the models. 6z GFS has a big storm just south of the NY/Philly but we know that will change a lot since it's long range.

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Another storm to bite the dust in this so called good pattern. What a shame.

Not really anthony. Storm is going to happen and didnt slide south of us, just because its not going to be a snowstorm for us doesnt mean it bit the dust brother. The antedecent airmass and overall setup for this storm wrote the outcome on the wall for this one days ago

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Winter is not that long a season. And some don't tire of tracking snow until April. Let us enjoy tracking snow when the threats are there; it IS a weather board.

Barring a major shift today this will likely be mostly rain, but at least one more threat still on the models. 6z GFS has a big storm just south of the NY/Philly but we know that will change a lot since it's long range.

This may be a shock to you, but there are other types of weather in addition to snow.

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No worries if we can get that weak-moderate el nino next winter and some blocking to go along with some cold weather we may get our shot next year. Until then lets get into spring mode

Yes.. but to have had one 18+ class of storm pull together this year would've really made this an epic winter season.

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Winter is not that long a season. And some don't tire of tracking snow until April. Let us enjoy tracking snow when the threats are there; it IS a weather board.

Barring a major shift today this will likely be mostly rain, but at least one more threat still on the models. 6z GFS has a big storm just south of the NY/Philly but we know that will change a lot since it's long range.

I'll take the snow when it comes, but the pattern coming up doesn't argue for any kind of snow threat for I-95. We would need some major help from the PV and/or blocking for snow after this storm, and that doesn't look likely to happen. Climo takes the snow threats into NNE after this point in the winter, and that looks just like what will be happening now.

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This storm might not even be much rain for us-the mid level dry slot looks to be overhead for much of the storm's duration. The most precip falls along and north of the low's track. This doesn't look to be much snow unless you're way north in the Catskills, Berkshires, and north from there. This storm is likely to be a big yawner for most of us, and models at 0z/6z trended mostly further north, not better for us.

 

I hope the people who wanted the wrapped up low solution are happy. :lol:

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Guest Pamela

I'll take the snow when it comes, but the pattern coming up doesn't argue for any kind of snow threat for I-95. We would need some major help from the PV and/or blocking for snow after this storm, and that doesn't look likely to happen. Climo takes the snow threats into NNE after this point in the winter, and that looks just like what will be happening now.

 

Basically agree...though I'd amend the climo part to read "northern CT, especially elevated spots" instead of  "NNE"...quite a bit of snow generally falls in the Litchfield Hills, Berkshires, and the Eastern New England Upland south of the N.H. border from March 10th on traditionally. 

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I'll take the snow when it comes, but the pattern coming up doesn't argue for any kind of snow threat for I-95. We would need some major help from the PV and/or blocking for snow after this storm, and that doesn't look likely to happen. Climo takes the snow threats into NNE after this point in the winter, and that looks just like what will be happening now.

Spot on my friend. Im just looking to see when this -EPO will break so we can get the SE ridge to flex its muscles and get the warm weather in here for true spring weather. Winter is dead to me now, it was one hell of a winter with alot of snow and close to historic cold, i dont know how much more you could ask for after what mother nature delivered in a winter were most teleconnectors were terrible

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Typical march day. Light snow in Brooklyn right now. Skies should brighten later as we get to 50

As far as the storm. We've been spoiled because everything from Dec thru mid Feb worked in our favor the last few haven't.

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Spot on my friend. Im just looking to see when this -EPO will break so we can get the SE ridge to flex its muscles and get the warm weather in here for true spring weather. Winter is dead to me now, it was one hell of a winter with alot of snow and close to historic cold, i dont know how much more you could ask for after what mother nature delivered in a winter were most teleconnectors were terrible

The EPO delivered for us much more than I thought it would. If you would have told me in December that we would see all these snowstorms with a subpar NAO, I would have laughed. As for the cold, it's hard to think of a recent winter that has come close other than 2003-04.

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What are you looking at for NYC and Long Island ? Wed is a wrap. You are going to RAIN. Wrap around snows do NOT materialize in set ups like this. This is not dec 2002 , the system is not coming from you're SE heading through islip N into S VT Where its pulling moisture N. The moisture is moving W to E . You will not be snowing with a center east of CC . You will dry out by the time the BL sufficiently cools.

I don't care what the models show. That look will trend weaker as you get closer.

I will not even touch the last question, because I have nothing nice to say.

Ok how about CNJ? Any predictions? Thx.

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I'll take the snow when it comes, but the pattern coming up doesn't argue for any kind of snow threat for I-95. We would need some major help from the PV and/or blocking for snow after this storm, and that doesn't look likely to happen. Climo takes the snow threats into NNE after this point in the winter, and that looks just like what will be happening now.

AccuWeather just put snow back in for Thurs in CNJ. crazy

The CNJ Plowsman

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Pretty much par for the course when we get such an amplified system with no blocking.

 

attachicon.gifao.sprd2.gif

 

 

The 93 superstorm had no blocking to speak of, with an AO value of around +1.6 the 13th of March. We would have been able to get a significant snowfall if the PNA was more poleward / amplified, thereby suppressing the eastern baroclinic zone further south.

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I wish this was going to be a prolific rain producer. It would make missing the snow worth it. We'll be mostly dry slotted if this doesn't pass well south of NJ.

 

Yup.

New Srefs are barely .25" of total precip now. Huge dry slot.

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I wish this was going to be a prolific rain producer. It would make missing the snow worth it. We'll be mostly dry slotted if this doesn't pass well south of NJ.

We're to need a decent soaked to wash away all this stagnant salt on these roads. These are probably the worst ive ever seen the mainroads in my area when i take into account potholes and salt/ sand build up

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You all should instead be hoping this goes further north and west. If we could see this really wrap up and occlude near Montreal, the baroclinic zone would still be draped through our area, along the east coast, and perhaps see another low form along the triple point. It's a very low probability, I know, but it has a far greater shot at happening than us being on the cold side of the primary low, where the chances are zero.

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