scooter13 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Central Park has seen 13 snowstorms of 6 inches or greater from March 18th and after...and no snowstorms greater than 12 inches...though a few of the storms...particularly during the 1950's....came close to the one foot mark. Suburban areas...especially elevated ones...have had numerous events over a foot over the years. The big snows of April 1996 and April 1997 come to mind. Oddly, early April seems to have produced more big snows than the last week or so of March. April 1982 had a blizzard as far south as central NJ (the good snows were confined to a little bit north of 40 N)...April 1983 had a major snowstorm for the higher spots in northern NJ & SE NY. Yes, that was my point, higher elevations of the HV and points N/W can see it but as far as the inner city seeing 12+ after March 15th, the chances are next to none. I wasn't born yet but April 1982 sounds like it was one of the most remarkable storms in history, considering the strength and timing of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yes, that was my point, higher elevations of the HV and points N/W can see it but as far as the inner city seeing 12+ after March 15th, the chances are next to none. I wasn't born yet but April 1982 sounds like it was one of the most remarkable storms in history, considering the strength and timing of year. The thing about the 4/6/82 storm was the exceptional cold...in the middle of the afternoon...a Tuesday....temperatures were in the mid 20's in Manhattan...a rather amazing DFN of at least 30 degrees. It was also extremely windy and blizzard warnings were justifiably raised by the NWS in Rockefeller Center that morning. Dynamic storm produced severe thunderstorms & tornadoes south of the warm front, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The thing about the 4/6/82 storm was the exceptional cold...in the middle of the afternoon...a Tuesday....temperatures were in the mid 20's in Manhattan...a rather amazing DFN of at least 30 degrees. It was also extremely windy and blizzard warnings were justifiably raised by the NWS in Rockefeller Center that morning. Dynamic storm produced severe thunderstorms & tornadoes south of the warm front, IIRC. Do you remember May 9-10 of 1977? I know NYC didn't see any accumulations but parts of the HV got over 2' according to snowmaps. Just the thought of that on May 10th is outrageous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Do you remember May 9-10 of 1977? I know NYC didn't see any accumulations but parts of the HV got over 2' according to snowmaps. Just the thought of that on May 10th is outrageous. Truth be told the storm is not fresh in my mind as the April 1982 event is...I certainly know *of* it as a historical event...per the Kocin book it dropped over a foot in ORH and almost 8 inches in Providence...and locally over 15 inches in the Berkshires & Taconics. I believe it only produced trace amounts in the NYC area...still amazing given the month. There was also an event in the mid Hudson valley some time during a May in the 2000's that put down a quick 2 inches at Albany, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 There was also an event in the mid Hudson valley some time during a May in the 2000's that put down a quick 2 inches at Albany, IIRC. Information courtesy of the NWS Albany, NY: Snowfall of May 18, 2002 Low pressure moving out Virginia moved off the southern New Jersey coast Saturday (May 18) morning and by early Sunday was southeast of Nova Scotia. At the same time an unseasonably cold airmass pressed south out of Canada. Heavy rain developed Friday night. The combination of cold air settling in from the north, and cooling due to latent heat of melting in the heavy precipitation caused temperatures to drop from near 50 at midnight to near freezing by dawn. Rain changed over to snow and accumulated in many places. The 2.2 inches that fell in Albany was the heaviest measurable snow ever. Traces of snow have fallen as late as May 28th in in 1902. THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES TAKEN FROMCOOPERATIVE OBSERVERS SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND LOCAL TV SPOTTERS. IN EASTERN NEW YORK ALBANY COUNTY KNOX 4.5 0100 PM RAVENA 2.8 1100 AM ALBANY 2.2 0200 PM COLUMBIA COUNTY SCHODACK 2.5 1100 AMGREENE COUNTYPRATTSVILLE 8 1230 PM LEXINGTON 5.8 0230 PMMONTGOMERY COUNTY GLEN 2.9 1230 PM RENSSELAER COUNTY GRAFTON 4.5 1200 PM SARATOGA COUNTY PROVIDENCE 1.5 1230 PM CLIFTON PARK 1 1130 AM SCHENECTADY COUNTY DUANESBURG 2 1100 AMSCHOHARIE COUNTY SUMMIT 6.5 0100 PM JEFFERSON 5 0230 PM BENNINGTON COUNTY VERMONT READSBORO 2 1230 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Suburban areas...especially elevated ones...have had numerous events over a foot over the years. The big snows of April 1996 and April 1997 come to mind. Oddly, early April seems to have produced more big snows than the last week or so of March. April 1997 came amazingly close to being a big snowstorm for NYC with 18 inches as close as Brewster, NY...which is on the Westchester / Putnam border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Truth be told the storm is not fresh in my mind as the April 1982 event is...I certainly know *of* it as a historical event...per the Kocin book it dropped over a foot in ORH and almost 8 inches in Providence...and locally over 15 inches in the Berkshires & Taconics. I believe it only produced trace amounts in the NYC area...still amazing given the month. There was also an event in the mid Hudson valley some time during a May in the 2000's that put down a quick 2 inches at Albany, IIRC. I drove through Albany around 6-7pm that day and the snow was gone completely, I actually didn't find out it had snowed there earlier in the day til I arrived back in NYC around 10pm. I think April 1986 had a big snow in NE PA and NW NJ and it was late too, maybe the 25th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 00z ECM still takes a 983 MB across SE PA @ 72 hrs out .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 00z ECM still takes a 983 MB across SE PA @ 72 hrs out .. How does Ithaca look? Does it still project more than 1.25 inches of qpf through south central new york, or has the precip shield moved south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The 0z GFS took the rain / no rain line from the Massachusetts / Vermont border at 12z to Route 84 at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 How does Ithaca look? Does it still project more than 1.25 inches of qpf through south central new york, or has the precip shield moved south? How does Ithaca look? Does it still project more than 1.25 inches of qpf through south central new york, or has the precip shield moved south? Looks like around a foot of snow in that area on the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Looks like around a foot of snow in that area on the 00z and the obvious question" is it more south? how is the snow for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 and the obvious question" is it more south? how is the snow for NYC? Less then an inch..shifted further North! Not the track of the low but the snow shield expanse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Less then an inch..shifted further North! Not the track of the low but the snow shield expanse! Thx. off 2 bed then & tomorrow is the decisive day with the storm on shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 How does Ithaca look? Does it still project more than 1.25 inches of qpf through south central new york, or has the precip shield moved south? If I was a betting man I'd take the under....that whole Ithaca / Elmira corridor constitute the worst snow hole in the Southern Tier...much less snowy than Binghamton to the east or the Double C Counties downwind of Lake Erie and to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 If I was a betting man I'd take the under....that whole Ithaca / Elmira corridor constitute the worst snow hole in the Southern Tier...much less snowy than Binghamton or the Double C Counties downwind of Lake Erie. You would be right. We get less snow than Binghamton because of less moisture, while we do not get much lake-effect snow. Still, close to 70 inches a year isn't too bad. A double-digit snowfall here would be lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 You would be right. We get less snow than Binghamton because of less moisture, while we do not get much lake-effect snow. Still, close to 70 inches a year isn't too bad. A double-digit snowfall here would be lovely. Definitely gets plenty of snow compared to most places in America...sort of like comparing millionaires to billionaires...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 looks like another storm that will bite the dust.. Running out of time and chances for snow. Crazy even though this has been an ABOVE average winter snow wise feels like an eternity since the last snow storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 looks like another storm that will bite the dust.. Running out of time and chances for snow. Crazy even though this has been an ABOVE average winter snow wise feels like an eternity since the last snow storm now. It has been three weeks since the last significant snow in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Not to deviate from the thread title to much, but what is the Euro showing for the storm early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Not to deviate from the thread title to much, but what is the Euro showing for the storm early next week? Takes what was a major storm south and east with just some light snows.. Actually has two periods to watch..the 18-19th and then day 10 as well.. Certainly not lacking cold air that is for certain after this weeks system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Does anyone think this can trend more south all day tomorrow and bring 3-5 inch snows for NNJ, NYC and LI, and 6-10 inches plus for SW CT and points north ? Is the Arctic push getting stronger in advance of the storm ? GFS and NAM look much improved, if we keep trending south tomorrow, do watches go up Wednesday most of us ??? How does the potential HECS Blizzard look for 3/18 ?? Any comments if 12-20 inch snow is a real threat....... What are you looking at for NYC and Long Island ? Wed is a wrap. You are going to RAIN. Wrap around snows do NOT materialize in set ups like this. This is not dec 2002 , the system is not coming from you're SE heading through islip N into S VT Where its pulling moisture N. The moisture is moving W to E . You will not be snowing with a center east of CC . You will dry out by the time the BL sufficiently cools. I don't care what the models show. That look will trend weaker as you get closer. I will not even touch the last question, because I have nothing nice to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Does anyone think this can trend more south all day tomorrow and bring 3-5 inch snows for NNJ, NYC and LI, and 6-10 inches plus for SW CT and points north ? Is the Arctic push getting stronger in advance of the storm ? GFS and NAM look much improved, if we keep trending south tomorrow, do watches go up Wednesday most of us ??? How does the potential HECS Blizzard look for 3/18 ?? Any comments if 12-20 inch snow is a real threat.......lolwut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Rain, then significant sleet, then a couple of inches of snow. There will be 20:1 ratios too toward the end.20:1 ? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Weenies gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 lolwut He is the pinnacle of a dream weenie. Wizard of wishcasting that makes more than outlandish forecasts. You've just noticed this smoke eater? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Lol 6z moves WAYYYYY west with the low again. All rain Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 He is the pinnacle of a dream weenie. Wizard of wishcasting that makes more than outlandish forecasts. You've just noticed this smoke eater? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 No shot Again, soundings indicating a below freezing mid-level with sleet almost throughout the storm from the start in Northwest NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The upcoming storm is a done deal for us, all rain unless north of I-84. The writing has been on the wall for days. After the nice weather this weekend I'm over these threats, so I'll take it. We could use the rain anyway to wash away the salt and knock down some of the ugly ice piles. Time to move onto Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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