ag3 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Weatherbell snow map for 0z NAM 6-9 inches from south to north for Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties 2-6 from south to north for Warren, Morris, Southern Passaic and Northwestern Bergen Counties. 2-4 for northern Essex. 1-2 for Central Jersey, NYC and Long Island And sim radar shows that it's still lightly snowing at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Just checked soundings. The majority of that is sleet. This is entirely sleet from the start, changing to snow in NW NJ. It is now entirely frozen precip on this run according to soundings at Andover. Still checking around at other locations. Caldwell, starts as rain, changes to significant sleet, then snow. New York City, same deal, rain, then significant sleet, then snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 1234abc, WxBell always reads sleet as snow... That being said, why is the NAM getting any time of day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 1234abc, WxBell always reads sleet as snow... That being said, why is the NAM getting any time of day? Because it went south, is colder and shows snow for my backyard.South trend is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 1234abc, WxBell always reads sleet as snow... That being said, why is the NAM getting any time of day? It has shown trends many times this winter. The Euro is not far off from showing this as well. It is the first run to come in with the new data as the piece of energy is starting to come closer to land along the Pacific Coast. We shall see. Yeah, I know about Weatherbell and the sleet thing. Always have to look at soundings to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 1234abc, WxBell always reads sleet as snow... That being said, why is the NAM getting any time of day? Nam has done pretty decent this year actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The NAM is truly an awful model, and I've resolved to never give it much credence wrt wintertime synoptics, but by golly it keeps me frozen for the whole event, per NexLab point soundings. I'll allow myself the guilty pleasure of mulling over that run until the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Nam has done pretty decent this year actually Would really like to see its verification scores at 60+hr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Not sure if the NAM has had any over amplification bias this year like past years based on what i've seen, but it's March and i'm going to hug that idea. Hopefully the south trend starts now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The thing to watch is low far south the cold air pushes into the northeast. If the vortex is just a little stronger and the low a little weaker then NYC would see a decent snow. This is what the models said last Thursday and Friday, it will take a few more runs to see the true storm, at this point it is still to early to say the is a definite trend to this, but time will tell. As I said on Friday let's wait until Minday to see what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I also wonder how much sleet the Euro would be showing. Does anyone have sounding data for the Euro. I only have surface and 850 temps. It would now seem that based upon what the NAM just showed that possibly the Euro would also have a significant cold layer between the two that would produce significant sleet as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Ouch. The NAM at this range is useless. Don't take my word for it; to refresh your short term memories, take a look at all previous storm topics this season. Awful performances this year. Beyond 48 hrs use it for entertainment purposes ONLY (and even that's pushing it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Any info from goofus yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 A little less amped both at the surface and upper levels through hour 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 1" plus of rain followed by 2-4" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 A little less amped both at the surface and upper levels through hour 57. And about 40 miles south of the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 1" plus of rain followed by 2-4" of snowIs it south of the previous run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 And about 40 miles south of the 18z run. I see the sfc low placement as identical, though slightly weaker and slower. Who knows... no huge differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Trend is clearly for real.... Not sure if it will continue tomorrow...12z18z00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I see the sfc low placement as identical, though slightly weaker and slower. Who knows... no huge differences. Improved run for the interior. Few more ticks south and boom big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Improved run for the interior. Few more ticks south and boom big snows. Yeah, improvements were more noticeable in the mid-levels than at the surface I think. I like where we all sit right now... we've begrudgingly accepted the idea of a rainstorm, should it come to that, but tonight's models suggest there may be some wiggle room after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Again, soundings indicating a below freezing mid-level with sleet almost throughout the storm from the start in Northwest NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 If nothing else, it looks to get rather gusty behind the storm; throw in some flash freezing and you've got yourself some interesting wx conditions, even if p-type has left much to be desired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Again, soundings indicating a below freezing mid-level with sleet almost throughout the storm from the start in Northwest NJ What's it showing for MMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 What's it showing for MMU? Rain, then significant sleet, then a couple of inches of snow. There will be 20:1 ratios too toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Trend is clearly for real.... Not sure if it will continue tomorrow... 12z 18z 00z This last map ends at 81hours, through 90 its much better for NYC and north. Even Philly picks up a couple of inches. One more 50 mile bump south and NYC is 6" + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 GGEM is still way north unfortunately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Does anyone think this can trend more south all day tomorrow and bring 3-5 inch snows for NNJ, NYC and LI, and 6-10 inches plus for SW CT and points north ? Is the Arctic push getting stronger in advance of the storm ? GFS and NAM look much improved, if we keep trending south tomorrow, do watches go up Wednesday most of us ??? How does the potential HECS Blizzard look for 3/18 ?? Any comments if 12-20 inch snow is a real threat....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Does anyone think this can trend more south all day tomorrow and bring 3-5 inch snows for NNJ, NYC and LI, and 6-10 inches plus for SW CT and points north ? Is the Arctic push getting stronger in advance of the storm ? GFS and NAM look much improved, if we keep trending south tomorrow, do watches go up Wednesday most of us ??? How is the potential HECS Blizzard look for 3/18 ?? Any comments if 12-20 inch snow is a real threat....... 12-20 inches of snow on March 18th would be about a one in a million shot. Seems as if models have been consistantly showing a big storm 7-8 days out only to turn into almost nothing when they come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 12-20 inches of snow on March 18th would be about a one in a million shot. Seems as if models have been consistantly showing a big storm 7-8 days out only to turn into almost nothing when they come around. Central Park has seen 13 snowstorms of 6 inches or greater from March 18th and after...and no snowstorms greater than 12 inches...though a few of the storms...particularly during the 1950's....came close to the one foot mark. Suburban areas...especially elevated ones...have had numerous events over a foot over the years. The big snows of April 1996 and April 1997 come to mind. Oddly, early April seems to have produced more big snows than the last week or so of March. April 1982 had a blizzard as far south as central NJ (the good snows were confined to a little bit north of 40 N)...April 1983 had a major snowstorm for the higher spots in northern NJ & SE NY. Of course, you get into NW CT...especially Litchfield County...and April is still considered a major snow month there...with an mean April snowfall of about 4 to 8 inches. April 1982 had 20.0" of snow in Norfolk, CT and April 1983 had 25.7" there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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