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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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Weatherbell snow map for 0z NAM

6-9 inches from south to north for Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties

2-6 from south to north for Warren, Morris, Southern Passaic and Northwestern Bergen Counties.

2-4 for northern Essex.

1-2 for Central Jersey, NYC and Long Island

And sim radar shows that it's still lightly snowing at hour 84.

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Just checked soundings.  The majority of that is sleet.  This is entirely sleet from the start, changing to snow in NW NJ.  It is now entirely frozen precip on this run according to soundings at Andover.  Still checking around at other locations.

 

Caldwell, starts as rain, changes to significant sleet, then snow.

 

New York City, same deal, rain, then significant sleet, then snow.  

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1234abc, WxBell always reads sleet as snow...

 

That being said, why is the NAM getting any time of day?

 

It has shown trends many times this winter.  The Euro is not far off from showing this as well.  It is the first run to come in with the new data as the piece of energy is starting to come closer to land along the Pacific Coast.  We shall see.

 

Yeah, I know about Weatherbell and the sleet thing.  Always have to look at soundings to figure it out.  

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The thing to watch is low far south the cold air pushes into the northeast. If the vortex is just a little stronger and the low a little weaker then NYC would see a decent snow. This is what the models said last Thursday and Friday, it will take a few more runs to see the true storm, at this point it is still to early to say the is a definite trend to this, but time will tell. As I said on Friday let's wait until Minday to see what will happen.

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I also wonder how much sleet the Euro would be showing.  Does anyone have sounding data for the Euro.  I only have surface and 850 temps.  It would now seem that based upon what the NAM just showed that possibly the Euro would also have a significant cold layer between the two that would produce significant sleet as well.  

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Improved run for the interior.

Few more ticks south and boom big snows.

Yeah, improvements were more noticeable in the mid-levels than at the surface I think. I like where we all sit right now... we've begrudgingly accepted the idea of a rainstorm, should it come to that, but tonight's models suggest there may be some wiggle room after all.

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Does anyone think this can trend more south all day tomorrow and bring 3-5 inch snows for NNJ, NYC and LI, and 6-10 inches plus for SW CT and points north ?  Is the Arctic push getting stronger in advance of the storm ?  GFS and NAM look much improved, if we keep trending south tomorrow, do watches go up Wednesday most of us ???  How does the potential HECS Blizzard look for 3/18 ?? Any comments if 12-20 inch snow is a real threat.......

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Does anyone think this can trend more south all day tomorrow and bring 3-5 inch snows for NNJ, NYC and LI, and 6-10 inches plus for SW CT and points north ?  Is the Arctic push getting stronger in advance of the storm ?  GFS and NAM look much improved, if we keep trending south tomorrow, do watches go up Wednesday most of us ???  How is the potential HECS Blizzard look for 3/18 ?? Any comments if 12-20 inch snow is a real threat.......

12-20 inches of snow on March 18th would be about a one in a million shot.  Seems as if models have been consistantly showing a big storm 7-8 days out only to turn into almost nothing when they come around. 

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Guest Pamela

12-20 inches of snow on March 18th would be about a one in a million shot.  Seems as if models have been consistantly showing a big storm 7-8 days out only to turn into almost nothing when they come around. 

 

Central Park has seen 13 snowstorms of 6 inches or greater from March 18th and after...and no snowstorms greater than 12 inches...though a few of the storms...particularly during the 1950's....came close to the one foot mark.

 

Suburban areas...especially elevated ones...have had numerous events over a foot over the years.  The big snows of April 1996 and April 1997 come to mind.  Oddly, early April seems to have produced more big snows than the last week or so of March. 

 

April 1982 had a blizzard as far south as central NJ (the good snows were confined to a little bit north of 40 N)...April 1983 had a major snowstorm for the higher spots in northern NJ & SE NY. 

 

Of course, you get into NW CT...especially Litchfield County...and April is still considered a major snow month there...with an mean April snowfall of about 4 to 8 inches.  April 1982 had 20.0" of snow in Norfolk, CT and April 1983 had 25.7" there. 

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