Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 More like 10 miles, if that. At least it's the right direction but its basically the same as 12z and nothing to get excited about. To clear it up, I was referring to the precip shield. Yeah, I should clear that up. The pecip shield shifted about 100 miles southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 It's still worth monitoring as we've seen substantial changes within 3 days this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 It's still worth monitoring as we've seen substantial changes within 3 days this winter. Its a rainstorm. The only question is if and when a changeover to snow occurs and can we get any accumulation out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Its a rainstorm. The only question is if and when a changeover to snow occurs and can we get any accumulation out of it. I completely agree with this...I would be very surprised if anyone south of Sullivan county sees accumulating snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 It's still worth monitoring as we've seen substantial changes within 3 days this winter. Mostly with the less amplified systems than the models are advertising for Wednesday. Last week was a much different circumstance where the system was so weak that it was easily suppressed. The more amped solutions back in January ticked further north the closer we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Where does this bring the storm on the coast? For what its worth AccuWeather predicting am snow in CNJ for last few days, just removed the white stuff completely from their forecast "model". The CNJ Plowsman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I completely agree with this...I would be very surprised if anyone south of Sullivan county sees accumulating snows I agree im expecting just a cold rain from start to finish with this. I am however VERY happy with that as we need the rain to wash away a lot of this salt build up on the roads, it is terrible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The antecedent airmass is way too warm for a trough base at that latitude to provide our area with snow. We would need the northern stream energy to dig much farther southeast and phase with the southern stream entity to start talking about the development of a cold conveyor belt and more well placed mid level centers. The other idea would be for the confluent shortwave passing through the Great Lakes prior to the system to be stronger, but I don't see any model showing that at this time. This looks like a rainstorm for most people in this forum with the potential for some frozen precipitation in Litchfield/Orange counties and points north becoming dependent on the thermal gradient placement as the event draws closer. WELCOME BACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 If you take into account that the hour 87 NAM tracks the low from DC to the benchmark I feel this could legitimately tick further south over the next day or two. I still believe we're a relativity long way away from everything being locked into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I know it's a rainstorm, I've been saying for days it's a rainstorm but so what. It's still worth monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 If you take into account that the hour 87 NAM tracks the low from DC to the benchmark I feel this could legitimately tick further south over the next day or two. I still believe we're a relativity long way away from everything being locked into place. The NAM should creep further north once it finally gets how wrapped up the low is going to be. It still has too weak a surface low compared to the rest of the guidance so it slips further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Barring the possible major storm for early next week that a few of the models are showing I think you can pretty much stick a fork (no pun intended Forky) in any significant frozen precipitation until next fall/winter at least for the coastal areas IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 You can't stick a fork in anything until mid April, not with this pattern. Quite the beast showing up on the gfs after this storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The NAM should creep further north once it finally gets how wrapped up the low is going to be. It still has too weak a surface low compared to the rest of the guidance so it slips further south. The hour 87 NAM is notoriously over amplified and NW. Do with that info as you please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Barring the possible major storm for early next week that a few of the models are showing I think you can pretty much stick a fork (no pun intended Forky) in any significant frozen precipitation until next fall/winter at least for the coastal areas IMO. with you on this, fully believe next week barring an historically cold airmass timed with a coastal storm, snow for the coast is done. cant wait to start tracking our first stretch of 60's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 You can't stick a fork in anything until mid April, not with this pattern. Quite the beast showing up on the gfs after this storm though. im not optimistic of that storm one but, WAY too far out and is going to change throughout the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 While the summation of current model guidance indicates a primarily liquid event for the I-95 corridor, it would not take a significant shift in features to produce a further south cyclone track. Some factors that need to be monitored are the following: 1. Positioning / placement of the PV and the extension southward of its lobes of energy. This in turn could suppress the baroclinic zone. 2. Magnitude of PNA amplification in western Canada. A more poleward mid level ridge could also aid in promoting a further southward track. 3. Strength / influence of the southern stream short wave propagating across the deep south. If this s/w becomes more potent on guidance, it could exert more of a pull on the energy rolling through the Plains, thereby allowing cyclogenesis to occur further south in the MS/OH valleys. Finally, anyone who tracks weather knows that speaking in declaratives at 84hrs is generally risky business, i.e. rolling the dice on model accuracy from this range. It may very well be all rain for NYC, but to ignore what could happen is unwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 While the summation of current model guidance indicates a primarily liquid event for the I-95 corridor, it would not take a significant shift in features to produce a further south cyclone track. Some factors that need to be monitored are the following: 1. Positioning / placement of the PV and the extension southward of its lobes of energy. This in turn could suppress the baroclinic zone. 2. Magnitude of PNA amplification in western Canada. A more poleward mid level ridge could also aid in promoting a further southward track. 3. Strength / influence of the southern stream short wave propagating across the deep south. If this s/w becomes more potent on guidance, it could exert more of a pull on the energy rolling through the Plains, thereby allowing cyclogenesis to occur further south in the MS/OH valleys. Finally, anyone who tracks weather knows that speaking in declaratives at 84hrs is generally risky business, i.e. rolling the dice on model accuracy from this range. It may very well be all rain for NYC, but to ignore what could happen is unwise. agreed 100 % - Some folks around here have short memories regarding how the models screwed us big time 84 hours out just a week ago - same bold set in stone statements - they should go back and re -read some on those threads especially the part 2 thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I agree with the premise of/most of your thoughts but I don't think the wraparound snow potential is going to work out if the storm evolves as currently modeled. We would need the system to trend toward amplifying farther south and east with time in order to start getting moisture into the cold side of the system. As modeled now, there is 700mb dry slot which soars through as the cold air begins to wrap back into the area in the mid and low levels. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_700_rhum_081.gif What I am more interested in is if the Polar Vortex can push this whole thing a bit further south, much as happened last time. Who is to say it can't happen again. This thing is not coming inland in California until tomorrow. Surprises may still be in store. You never know. It happened last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 the idea of front end snow is long gone. for anything significant you'd have to hope for the mid level system to close off sooner so a comma head wraps through... the 12z euro ens mean is deeper than 0z. btw, the snowiest solution will probably also be the warmest (ahead of the low)Solid post, you should do it more often. People will listen to what you actually have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Solid post, you should do it more often. People will listen to what you actually have to say. Forky is an EasternUSWx/AmericanWX institution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Forky is an EasternUSWx/AmericanWX institution. Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 00z NAM is a few inches of snow north of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Nam is much further south....50 more miles and a snowstorm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Nam is much further south....50 more miles and a snowstorm.... It's has 2"-3" for NYC as well and at hour 84, sims show that it's still snowing. Nice trend south for sure. Let's hope the rest of the suite follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Nam is much further south....50 more miles and a snowstorm....It's already some snow if you live in most of north Jersey or Upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The NAM is south, but after 54 hrs it is not the right tool to use. Let's see what the medium range models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 00z NAM is a few inches of snow north of 80. Looks to be more than a few inches in NW nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The NAM is south, but after 54 hrs it is not the right tool to use. Let's see what the medium range models say. The important thing is that it clearly indicates a push southward from the polar vortex. That is the same thing that happened with the last storm at the last minute. Will it do it again? One more push like that one and we are in business. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Weatherbell snow map for 0z NAM 6-9 inches from south to north for Sussex and Northern Passaic Counties 2-6 from south to north for Warren, Morris, Southern Passaic and Northwestern Bergen Counties. 2-4 for northern Essex. 1-2 for Central Jersey, NYC and Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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