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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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It's still worth monitoring as we've seen substantial changes within 3 days this winter.

 

Mostly with the less amplified systems than the models are advertising for Wednesday. Last week was a much 

different circumstance where the system was so weak that it was easily suppressed. The more amped

solutions back in January ticked further north the closer we got.

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I completely agree with this...I would be very surprised if anyone south of Sullivan county sees accumulating snows

I agree im expecting just a cold rain from start to finish with this. I am however VERY happy with that as we need the rain to wash away a lot of this salt build up on the roads, it is terrible!

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The antecedent airmass is way too warm for a trough base at that latitude to provide our area with snow. We would need the northern stream energy to dig much farther southeast and phase with the southern stream entity to start talking about the development of a cold conveyor belt and more well placed mid level centers. The other idea would be for the confluent shortwave passing through the Great Lakes prior to the system to be stronger, but I don't see any model showing that at this time. This looks like a rainstorm for most people in this forum with the potential for some frozen precipitation in Litchfield/Orange counties and points north becoming dependent on the thermal gradient placement as the event draws closer. 

WELCOME BACK.

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If you take into account that the hour 87 NAM tracks the low from DC to the benchmark I feel this could legitimately tick further south over the next day or two. I still believe we're a relativity long way away from everything being locked into place.

 

The NAM should creep further north once it finally gets how wrapped up the low is going to be. It still has too

weak a surface low compared to the rest of the guidance so it slips further south.

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Barring the possible major storm for early next week that a few of the models are showing I think you can pretty much stick a fork (no pun intended Forky) in any significant frozen precipitation until next fall/winter at least for the coastal areas IMO.

with you on this, fully believe next week barring an historically cold airmass timed with a coastal storm, snow for the coast is done. cant wait to start tracking our first stretch of 60's!

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While the summation of current model guidance indicates a primarily liquid event for the I-95 corridor, it would not take a significant shift in features to produce a further south cyclone track. Some factors that need to be monitored are the following:

 

1. Positioning / placement of the PV and the extension southward of its lobes of energy. This in turn could suppress the baroclinic zone.

 

2. Magnitude of PNA amplification in western Canada. A more poleward mid level ridge could also aid in promoting a further southward track.

 

3. Strength / influence of the southern stream short wave propagating across the deep south. If this s/w becomes more potent on guidance, it could exert more of a pull on the energy rolling through the Plains, thereby allowing cyclogenesis to occur further south in the MS/OH valleys.

 

Finally, anyone who tracks weather knows that speaking in declaratives at 84hrs is generally risky business, i.e. rolling the dice on model accuracy from this range. It may very well be all rain for NYC, but to ignore what could happen is unwise.

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While the summation of current model guidance indicates a primarily liquid event for the I-95 corridor, it would not take a significant shift in features to produce a further south cyclone track. Some factors that need to be monitored are the following:

 

1. Positioning / placement of the PV and the extension southward of its lobes of energy. This in turn could suppress the baroclinic zone.

 

2. Magnitude of PNA amplification in western Canada. A more poleward mid level ridge could also aid in promoting a further southward track.

 

3. Strength / influence of the southern stream short wave propagating across the deep south. If this s/w becomes more potent on guidance, it could exert more of a pull on the energy rolling through the Plains, thereby allowing cyclogenesis to occur further south in the MS/OH valleys.

 

Finally, anyone who tracks weather knows that speaking in declaratives at 84hrs is generally risky business, i.e. rolling the dice on model accuracy from this range. It may very well be all rain for NYC, but to ignore what could happen is unwise.

agreed 100 % - Some folks around here have short memories regarding how the models screwed us big time 84 hours out just a week ago - same bold set in stone statements - they should go back and re -read some on those threads especially the part 2 thread  

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I agree with the premise of/most of your thoughts but I don't think the wraparound snow potential is going to work out if the storm evolves as currently modeled. We would need the system to trend toward amplifying farther south and east with time in order to start getting moisture into the cold side of the system. As modeled now, there is 700mb dry slot which soars through as the cold air begins to wrap back into the area in the mid and low levels. 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_700_rhum_081.gif

 

What I am more interested in is if the Polar Vortex can push this whole thing a bit further south, much as happened last time.  Who is to say it can't happen again.  This thing is not coming inland in California until tomorrow.  Surprises may still be in store.  You never know.  It happened last time.

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the idea of front end snow is long gone. for anything significant you'd have to hope for the mid level system to close off sooner so a comma head wraps through... the 12z euro ens mean is deeper than 0z. btw, the snowiest solution will probably also be the warmest (ahead of the low)

Solid post, you should do it more often. People will listen to what you actually have to say.
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The NAM is south, but after 54 hrs it is not the right tool to use. Let's see what the medium range models say.

 

The important thing is that it clearly indicates a push southward from the polar vortex.  That is the same thing that happened with the last storm at the last minute.  Will it do it again?  One more push like that one and we are in business.  Plenty of time.  

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