Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Polar vortex working its muscles again? The whole snow band clearly shifted about 50 miles southward, throughout the entire Northeast. If it did that 2 more times we would all be in it, and we are still 3.5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 15z SREF takes the low off the Delmarva and has it almost all snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 My quick thoughts on this possible storm now that the event is drawing closer and the large amount of uncertainty is decreasing. 1. The final track could be a little farther south or north from the 12z ECMWF. 2. Even as the system looks to be fairly intense, that does not assure that it will produce prolific precipitation (widespread 1" or higher amounts). 3. Cold air will likely be drawn into the storm's circulation as it deepens. Interior sections of Pennsylvania, across northwestern NJ and then southeastern New York State and interior sections of Connecticut probably have the best chance at seeing a moderate (4" or more) to possibly significant (6" or more) snowfall. Cities such as Newark and New York will probably see the storm end as snow with some accumulation possible. Ratios might exceed 10:1 as the storm departs. In its wake, another shot of unseasonably cold air could produce yet another subfreezing day across much of the NYC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 12z JMA is well south of the other models and actually looks like the 15z SREF I just mentioned. It has us in the .75-1.00 qpf band, most of which is likely snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 the euro ens mean is north of the op. so much for the south trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 the euro ens mean is north of the op. so much for the south trend We never seem to want to argue against the Euro even when it is alone. It isn't a perfect model, but it is good enough that its solutions are rarely discounted between 48-96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 the euro ens mean is north of the op. so much for the south trend Yeah it is maybe 20 miles NW of the operational run and it did not budge from its prior run. There is still time though. We all remember where we stood last week at this time. Also, it still has a bit of snow for us anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The GGEM still continues to show an all rain event until u get 100 miles north and west of NYC... Not to mention GGEM nailed the last storm being way south of us 5 days out and has probably been the most reliable medium/short range model this year based on it's performance this entire winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The GGEM still continues to show an all rain event until u get 100 miles north and west of NYC... Not to mention GGEM nailed the last storm being way south of us 5 days out and has probably been the most reliable medium/short range model this year based on it's performance this entire winter The GGEm has not been reliable this winter. It did nail the last storm though. The RGEM within 12-24 hours has been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The GGEm has not been reliable this winter. It did nail the last storm though. The RGEM within 12-24 hours has been good. The GGEM IMO nailed the major storm last month too especially for my area... To include the 850 line set up with sleet as far north as Albany, that everyone said would never happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Dry slot ftl on the 12z Euro... this has the potential to be an exceedingly boring storm in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Control run of the Euro also had about a 50 mile southward shift to the snow band throughout the Northeast. Of course, it was already much further northwest than the operational run, but it now has the 1 inch band running through Northern New Jersey versus trace amounts on the prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 ggem is not the way to go if gfs and euro say different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 the bend for our trend??? http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Seeing where the nam has this at 84 hours would argue that this is going to end up more south, this is a phasing system so the nam bias should be in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Seeing where the nam has this at 84 hours would argue that this is going to end up more south, this is a phasing system so the nam bias should be in effect Nam looks suspicious at 84 which it should since 84 hours is way out of its accurate range - has a double barrel low and looks like it is encountering some blocking to the north with an icy mix here http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014030918/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Upton still leaving the door open for a colder snowier solution: LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW THROUGH TUE...BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH PAC NW ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE AND PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM BY MIDWEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM...THE DETAILS REMAIN IN QUESTION. THE H5 FLOW STARTS OFF NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS NE QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY AS A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES TRACKS EWD AND EVENTUALLY PHASES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW ONCE IT PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND CONTINUES E. SUNYSB ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THIS PAC ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY MON MORNING. A DEEPER SOLN WOULD LEND TO MORE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. THESE DIFFERENCES COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AS A SOLN FURTHER OFFSHORE WOULD LIKELY BE COLDER. HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF MOSTLY A LIQUID EVENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AS THE STORM DEPARTS AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON A NLY FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Just because he doesn't agree with the wish casters, doesn't make him wrong. He's one of the best forecasters here. U really are the 'Troll" of so called Pro Weather forecasters.. I have been on this site for years(lurker and different user name) and you are By far the most unprofessional Red tagger on these boards. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Agree completely - Forky is realistic and I appreciate his posts. Sent from my LG-LS980 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 the idea of front end snow is long gone. for anything significant you'd have to hope for the mid level system to close off sooner so a comma head wraps through... the 12z euro ens mean is deeper than 0z. btw, the snowiest solution will probably also be the warmest (ahead of the low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 100 mile shift southeast by the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I'm still banking on dynamic cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 100 mile shift southeast by the 18z gfs Where does this bring the storm on the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The antecedent airmass is way too warm for a trough base at that latitude to provide our area with snow. We would need the northern stream energy to dig much farther southeast and phase with the southern stream entity to start talking about the development of a cold conveyor belt and more well placed mid level centers. The other idea would be for the confluent shortwave passing through the Great Lakes prior to the system to be stronger, but I don't see any model showing that at this time. This looks like a rainstorm for most people in this forum with the potential for some frozen precipitation in Litchfield/Orange counties and points north becoming dependent on the thermal gradient placement as the event draws closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 A trough base/phase at this latitude is fine if we have cold air in place or an antecedent airmass which features good low level cold. But we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 100 mile shift southeast by the 18z gfs More like 10 miles, if that. At least it's the right direction but its basically the same as 12z and nothing to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 My quick thoughts on this possible storm now that the event is drawing closer and the large amount of uncertainty is decreasing. 1. The final track could be a little farther south or north from the 12z ECMWF. 2. Even as the system looks to be fairly intense, that does not assure that it will produce prolific precipitation (widespread 1" or higher amounts). 3. Cold air will likely be drawn into the storm's circulation as it deepens. Interior sections of Pennsylvania, across northwestern NJ and then southeastern New York State and interior sections of Connecticut probably have the best chance at seeing a moderate (4" or more) to possibly significant (6" or more) snowfall. Cities such as Newark and New York will probably see the storm end as snow with some accumulation possible. Ratios might exceed 10:1 as the storm departs. In its wake, another shot of unseasonably cold air could produce yet another subfreezing day across much of the NYC metro area. I agree with the premise of/most of your thoughts but I don't think the wraparound snow potential is going to work out if the storm evolves as currently modeled. We would need the system to trend toward amplifying farther south and east with time in order to start getting moisture into the cold side of the system. As modeled now, there is 700mb dry slot which soars through as the cold air begins to wrap back into the area in the mid and low levels. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_700_rhum_081.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The 700mb low needs too close off further south, for many of us to get into strong part of comma-head: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The 700mb low needs too close off further south, for many of us to get into strong part of comma-head: Yeah, exactly. There are a few GEFS members which showed this at 12z but at this time they are outliers. You can see one of the members on the bottom panel has the entire phasing occurring farther southeast than most OP models at this stage which would be a sufficient way to get snow here. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f84.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I agree with the premise of/most of your thoughts but I don't think the wraparound snow potential is going to work out if the storm evolves as currently modeled. We would need the system to trend toward amplifying farther south and east with time in order to start getting moisture into the cold side of the system. As modeled now, there is 700mb dry slot which soars through as the cold air begins to wrap back into the area in the mid and low levels. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_700_rhum_081.gif This mid level dry slot has been on the models for days. The 18z GFS is the first modeling in quite a wile to show widespread 1" plus totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.