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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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My quick thoughts on this possible storm now that the event is drawing closer and the large amount of uncertainty is decreasing.

 

1. The final track could be a little farther south or north from the 12z ECMWF.

2. Even as the system looks to be fairly intense, that does not assure that it will produce prolific precipitation (widespread 1" or higher amounts).

3. Cold air will likely be drawn into the storm's circulation as it deepens.

 

Interior sections of Pennsylvania, across northwestern NJ and then southeastern New York State and interior sections of Connecticut probably have the best chance at seeing a moderate (4" or more) to possibly significant (6" or more) snowfall. Cities such as Newark and New York will probably see the storm end as snow with some accumulation possible. Ratios might exceed 10:1 as the storm departs. In its wake, another shot of unseasonably cold air could produce yet another subfreezing day across much of the NYC metro area. 

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the euro ens mean is north of the op. so much for the south trend

We never seem to want to argue against the Euro even when it is alone.  It isn't a perfect model, but it is good enough that its solutions are rarely discounted between 48-96 hours.

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The GGEM still continues to show an all rain event until u get 100 miles north and west of NYC... Not to mention GGEM nailed the last storm being way south of us 5 days out and has probably been the most reliable medium/short range model this year based on it's performance this entire winter

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The GGEM still continues to show an all rain event until u get 100 miles north and west of NYC... Not to mention GGEM nailed the last storm being way south of us 5 days out and has probably been the most reliable medium/short range model this year based on it's performance this entire winter

 

The GGEm has not been reliable this winter.  It did nail the last storm though.  The RGEM within 12-24 hours has been good.

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The GGEm has not been reliable this winter. It did nail the last storm though. The RGEM within 12-24 hours has been good.

The GGEM IMO nailed the major storm last month too especially for my area... To include the 850 line set up with sleet as far north as Albany, that everyone said would never happen lol

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Seeing where the nam has this at 84 hours would argue that this is going to end up more south, this is a phasing system so the nam bias should be in effect

Nam looks suspicious at 84 which it should since 84 hours is way out of its accurate range - has a double barrel low and looks like it is encountering some blocking to the north with an icy mix here

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014030918/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

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Upton still leaving the door open for a colder snowier solution:

 

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 FLOW THROUGH TUE...BUT  
CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH PAC NW ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE AND  
PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM BY MIDWEEK. WHILE  
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL BE IMPACTED BY THIS  
SYSTEM...THE DETAILS REMAIN IN QUESTION.  

 
THE H5 FLOW STARTS OFF NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS NE QUARTER OF THE  
COUNTRY AS A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES TRACKS EWD AND EVENTUALLY  
PHASES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.  
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW ONCE  
IT PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE OH VALLEY AND  
CONTINUES E. SUNYSB ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT  
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THIS PAC ENERGY THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE  
EARLY MON MORNING. A DEEPER SOLN WOULD LEND TO MORE RIDGING  
DOWNSTREAM AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST.  
THESE DIFFERENCES COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE  
FORECAST AS A SOLN FURTHER OFFSHORE WOULD LIKELY BE COLDER.
HAVE  
KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF MOSTLY A LIQUID EVENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY  
OF SNOW AS THE STORM DEPARTS AND COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON A NLY  
FLOW.  

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Just because he doesn't agree with the wish casters, doesn't make him wrong. He's one of the best forecasters here.

U really are the 'Troll" of so called Pro Weather forecasters.. I have been on this site for years(lurker and different user name) and you are By far the most unprofessional Red tagger on these boards.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

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the idea of front end snow is long gone. for anything significant you'd have to hope for the mid level system to close off sooner so a comma head wraps through... the 12z euro ens mean is deeper than 0z. btw, the snowiest solution will probably also be the warmest (ahead of the low)

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The antecedent airmass is way too warm for a trough base at that latitude to provide our area with snow. We would need the northern stream energy to dig much farther southeast and phase with the southern stream entity to start talking about the development of a cold conveyor belt and more well placed mid level centers. The other idea would be for the confluent shortwave passing through the Great Lakes prior to the system to be stronger, but I don't see any model showing that at this time. This looks like a rainstorm for most people in this forum with the potential for some frozen precipitation in Litchfield/Orange counties and points north becoming dependent on the thermal gradient placement as the event draws closer. 

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My quick thoughts on this possible storm now that the event is drawing closer and the large amount of uncertainty is decreasing.

 

1. The final track could be a little farther south or north from the 12z ECMWF.

2. Even as the system looks to be fairly intense, that does not assure that it will produce prolific precipitation (widespread 1" or higher amounts).

3. Cold air will likely be drawn into the storm's circulation as it deepens.

 

Interior sections of Pennsylvania, across northwestern NJ and then southeastern New York State and interior sections of Connecticut probably have the best chance at seeing a moderate (4" or more) to possibly significant (6" or more) snowfall. Cities such as Newark and New York will probably see the storm end as snow with some accumulation possible. Ratios might exceed 10:1 as the storm departs. In its wake, another shot of unseasonably cold air could produce yet another subfreezing day across much of the NYC metro area. 

 

I agree with the premise of/most of your thoughts but I don't think the wraparound snow potential is going to work out if the storm evolves as currently modeled. We would need the system to trend toward amplifying farther south and east with time in order to start getting moisture into the cold side of the system. As modeled now, there is 700mb dry slot which soars through as the cold air begins to wrap back into the area in the mid and low levels. 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_700_rhum_081.gif

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The 700mb low needs too close off further south, for many of us to get into strong part of comma-head:

 

 

Yeah, exactly. There are a few GEFS members which showed this at 12z but at this time they are outliers. You can see one of the members on the bottom panel has the entire phasing occurring farther southeast than most OP models at this stage which would be a sufficient way to get snow here. 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f84.gif

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I agree with the premise of/most of your thoughts but I don't think the wraparound snow potential is going to work out if the storm evolves as currently modeled. We would need the system to trend toward amplifying farther south and east with time in order to start getting moisture into the cold side of the system. As modeled now, there is 700mb dry slot which soars through as the cold air begins to wrap back into the area in the mid and low levels.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_700_rhum_081.gif

This mid level dry slot has been on the models for days. The 18z GFS is the first modeling in quite a wile to show widespread 1" plus totals.
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