REDMK6GLI Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 That was like a 100 mile shift to the north. 850 center over Binghamton, never a good thing. What a wet and dynamic storm though... it'll sting if it plays out like that. Is a rain storm really that bad? All the salt on the roads would pretty much all be gone with a nice soaking and we do need it BADLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Flash freezes aren't real.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 For us it get into any decent QPF you want a track from Richmond to Ocean City, MD to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 let's talk about every storm threat on every model at every forecast hour! Just a few more inches of snow and most folks here would pass some pretty amazing winter snow totals. Not hard to see why people would scratch and peck for every remotely possible last inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 we are 66-78 hours away from any effects from this storm. I am happy that we aren't in the bullseye with this storm. Good news with this run is that it has trended stronger. This can still shift south and nail a lot of us especially north. Let's see if this can trend south a bit over the next day or so.. I think by 00z Tuesday's run we will know our fate.. I would like to see EURO no warmer or further north than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Flash freezes aren't real.. This. It's never happened. Flash Freezes are like a unicorn or a Sasquatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 we are 66-78 hours away from any effects from this storm. I am happy that we aren't in the bullseye with this storm. Good news with this run is that it has trended stronger. This can still shift south and nail a lot of us especially north. Let's see if this can trend south a bit over the next day or so.. I think by 00z Tuesday's run we will know our fate.. I would like to see EURO no warmer or further north than the GFS. TBH, I would rather that all the models didn't currently show rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The stronger the storm the more surprises it could bring on the backend.. GFS shows some nice deformation snows for most of New England on the backend, we will have to watch that closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Is a rain storm really that bad? All the salt on the roads would pretty much all be gone with a nice soaking and we do need it BADLY! Exactly. Lots of salt on the road. They put a ton down for that half inch bust. The first nice soaker and out will come my fine automobile. It was mid January when I drove it last. If it doesn't snow, please let it pour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 still plenty of time for the storm track to shift south. Euro will deliver the goods for a HECS this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 TBH, I would rather that all the models didn't currently show rain. True, then we would be risk having what happened last storm 72 hours out with GFS and EURO showing 12-18" and didn't even see a flurry, I'd rather be pleasantly surprised then have what happened last week. I doubt today's GFS run is the final outcome, It will shift one way or another let's see if it shifts wet or white.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 This. It's never happened. Flash Freezes are like a unicorn or a Sasquatch. People get desperate. Be real guys. Either we trend south and get lucky or its a wrap. Stop with this stupid flash freeze stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 let's talk about every storm threat on every model at every forecast hour!we wouldn't want to talk about weather on a weather forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 On the gfs you go from 50s to below freezing in under a couple hours from hrs 84 to 87 so yes flash freezes aren't impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Somewhat grasping for straws here, but at this point I think the only shot of something cold/wintry for us if we continue to see this get more wrapped up and further west, which I think will be the case. It's a long shot but I think we could see another low pop along the coast, along the cold front. With such a strong baroclinic zone the chances are there, but nevertheless, are remote. Not to mention these "late blooming" coastals tend to disappoint, even when they do materialize. Just something to watch for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Somewhat grasping for straws here, but at this point I think the only shot of something cold/wintry for us if we continue to see this get more wrapped up and further west, which I think will be the case. It's a long shot but I think we could see another low pop along the coast, along the cold front. With such a strong baroclinic zone the chances are there, but nevertheless, are remote. Not to mention these "late blooming" coastals tend to disappoint, even when they do materialize. Just something to watch for...Wouldn't that be an interesting turn of events.. But you are grasping my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 1200 replies for an inch of rain is ridiculous. the bar is so low in this subforum EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1141 AM EDT SUN MAR 09 2014 VALID 12Z WED MAR 12 2014 - 12Z SUN MAR 16 2014 ...HEAVY SNOW DAYS 3 AND 4 FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST... THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY CONVERGED ON THE TRACK OF THE COMPLEX WAVE CROSSING THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH ITS MOST MARKED SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT BEING A STRIPE OF HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD GIVE THE POPULATED AREAS FROM NEW YORK CITY TO PORTLAND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. A SHARP SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE WAVE, WITH A LONE DAY--THURSDAY, DAY 4--OF WELL-BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGIONS AFFECTED BY THE STORM. AFTER THE EASTERN STORM, RELIED ON THE 00Z/09 ENSEMBLE MEANS AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE COAST TO COAST. THESE MEANS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF A WESTERN RIDGE AND AN EASTERN TROUGH, WITH LESS AMPLITUDE. SUCH A FLOW REGIME IS TYPICALLY A DRY ONE FOR THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES, WITH ONLY THE GULF COAST STATES AND WESTERN WASHINGTON SEEING APPRECIABLE MOISTURE. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 People get desperate. Be real guys. Either we trend south and get lucky or its a wrap. Stop with this stupid flash freeze stuff. The 0z Euro goes from 47 degrees in Caldwell at 8 pm on Wednesday to 26 degrees at 2 am on Thursday, then to 17 degrees by 8 am on Thursday, with precipitation falling the whole time. What do you call that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The 12z GGEM is stronger and NW. 986mb low over and LI/SNE. Still warm and a fast mover for us. Good run for heavy snow for Northern NY and northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 yeah this one is just for the north country, the whole flash freeze snow thing will likely morph to lots of icy frozen puddles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 12z GFS ensemble mean is still mostly rain but it is quite a bit further southeast than the operational run, with all snow north of Rt. 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 BTW, you ever going to get that red tag? Yea I know...haven't seen any of the mods on lately, earthlight etc...I do need to get on it though, regardless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 12z Canadian has a HECS/blizzard from the Carolinas on north next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Well now its time to talk about the big storm on the 17-18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Well now its time to talk about the big storm on the 17-18th Yes, now last night's Euro and the 12z Canadian have the same thing. Those are the two models with the highest degree of accuracy in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Well now its time to talk about the big storm on the 17-18th Maybe in the banter thread, or the March forecasting thread. It's ridiculous that we'll need a part 2 thread for this event already. No more starting threads more than 5 days out, unless every major model is zeroed in on something biblical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Maybe in the banter thread, or the March forecasting thread. It's ridiculous that we'll need a part 2 thread for this event already. No more starting threads more than 5 days out, unless every major model is zeroed in on something biblical. Agreed. Some of these storm threat threads are being started way to early. A storm thread for the 17th-18th storm should be started no earlier then the middle of this week depending on what the models continue to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I was being sarcastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Where's that huge south shift now, we could've jackpotted if that happened with this one. We are going into a stormy pattern no matter what happens so at the very least it'll be anything but boring. March storminess is some of the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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