Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 are you talking about the week of the 16th or this weeks storm ? Yeah, Euro goes nuts driving the cold air in toward the last half of the storm. Should be freezing rain, sleet, then snow to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Yeah, and the Euro still gives you 15-17 inches. Imagine if you were not dry slotted.I'm talking about the event on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Let's keep this thread just for the threat it was designed for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I'm talking about the event on Thursday. I don't really see much of a dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I try to never do this, but what's the consenus on timing Wednesday. 11:30AM flight out of Newark and contemplating a switch to 6AM. Thoughts? Thanks, in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 It's called storm tracking. It's a hobby that virtually every member of the board collectively partakes in. Why did you join AmericanWx if not for that? 1200 replies for an inch of rain is ridiculous. the bar is so low in this subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 1200 replies for an inch of rain is ridiculous. the bar is so low in this subforum Well we cant track our first warm spell so what else are we going to do to raise this said bar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 LOL I was just wondering why the GFS wasn't out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 All I need is an inch to get to 60" for the season and 3" to get to 2nd most snowy winter. Thought it was a lock in late feb, now who knows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/ http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.srperts.2014030909.east_coast.single.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 1200 replies for an inch of rain is ridiculous. the bar is so low in this subforumMeh...east coast cyclogenesis will always garner attention.Is it probably a rain storm for this subforum? Yes. Was, or is, it a certainty? No. It won't be an inch of rain for somebody, and that somebody probably won't be all that far from northern areas of this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Meh...east coast cyclogenesis will always garner attention. Is it probably a rain storm for this subforum? Yes. Was, or is, it a certainty? No. It won't be an inch of rain for somebody, and that somebody probably won't be all that far from northern areas of this subforum. have you even seen the latest euro? it has rain past albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I like how everyone could get screwed this week, at least no one will complain but the flash freeze potential intrigues me and I could see an inch of snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 have you even seen the latest euro? it has rain past albany I have, it is on the western side of guidance atm, which granted has been moving west. Also flips back to snow. Not saying it won't be a bust on the wet side...just that it is understandable why people have been tracking this threat up to this point. It's not like this was always modeled as a 100% rainstorm. Now after the model trends of the last 12-24 hours, I would hope that people have adjusted their expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I don't really see much of a dry slot.Their is always going to be a large wherever the center of the low passes. That's why QPF on the Euro is under an inch and even less down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Well we cant track our first warm spell so what else are we going to do to raise this said bar?finally learn your lesson about day 10 euro storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 A blind squirrel will eventually find a nut, so maybe the Euro could hit on a 10 day. Of course it's like constantly playing the lottery hoping to hit big only to end up disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 1200 replies for an inch of rain is ridiculous. the bar is so low in this subforum Well, it depends where you are. In Northern New Jersey the Euro says 1-4 inches of snow, ice and freezing rain with a flash freeze. Hardly something to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 finally learn your lesson about day 10 euro storms? Except that the GFS and Canadian have also shown this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 1200 replies for an inch of rain is ridiculous. the bar is so low in this subforum Gotta take the good with the bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Except that the GFS and Canadian have also shown this threat.let's talk about every storm threat on every model at every forecast hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 OT: I see the EPO going negative again after mid month, what implications would it have moving forward, continued below normal temps or something different given its mid to late March by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 let's talk about every storm threat on every model at every forecast hour! Only in winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I still think the Euro is overdone. It has been consistently strong/NW compared to other models and, ultimately, actual outcomes this winter. That is to say... I don't think it's a given that everybody in the subforum is destined to rain exclusively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The 12z GFS came stronger/NW and warmer with Wednesday's storm. Lack of blocking, confluence and a collapsing western US ridge, all hurting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 finally learn your lesson about day 10 euro storms? About me starting threads on storms is almost the kiss of death? Yea pretty much im not starting them on a weenie dream and be heartbroken if they dont occur. Start the threads because they're is the threat and if it materializes or not in one way shape or form it still warrants it i believe. However, other people do start threads for threats 7+ days out as well so lets not all gang up on Ryan over here ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Look how fast the 850mb temps drop after the low passes, flash freeze possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 A blind squirrel will eventually find a nut, so maybe the Euro could hit on a 10 day. Of course it's like constantly playing the lottery hoping to hit big only to end up disappointed. JMA found the nut with VD 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 That was like a 100 mile shift to the north. 850 center over Binghamton, never a good thing. What a wet and dynamic storm though... it'll sting if it plays out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 We're mostly dry slotted on the GFS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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