Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I would expect some models to lose the storm in coming days as they often do in the middle ranges Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The Euro ensembles and the control run are basically dry for the area through day 10. The cluster is offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 12z JMA is a bomb, sub 976mb over Cape Cod. 0 line runs thru Chicago . Too early though . But that`s def a soaker on this run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The Euro ensembles and the control run are basically dry for the area through day 10. The cluster is offshore. That's never a good sign. Interesting that the OP is so amped and inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 This is a much better GFS run, it will usher in the cold air before the storm forms, look at the energy in SE Canada getting ready to usher in cold air. (the wave near 4 corners @ 153 hours is our storm). I'm not sure if it will have enough to form a storm, but this was a positive run pattern-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Yeah GFS ain't gonna cut it this run, but it was a great step overall towards a EURO-esque solution, I also love the western ridge showing up. All about timing my friends. Lets hope the EURO tonight holds onto the idea of a big storm regardless of who gets it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 18z GFS @ 192 hours has a pretty hefty snowstorm forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 wow at h5 on the 18z gfs….explosive look! Going to try and doing something on thursday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 18z GFS @ 192 hours has a pretty hefty snowstorm forming one part is loving what Im hearing and the other part is screaming DUDE its the 18 z GFS 8 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 It is a shame it loses its resolution at 192, the VVs looked great, it would have bombed over us...Fun to look at for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 one part is loving what Im hearing and the other part is screaming DUDE its the 18 z GFS 8 days out! Of course, the fine details mean nothing at this point...It does feel really good as a winter lover to have a possible legit threat towards the end of winter. Something to track before spring gives way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 850mb temp anomaly .....grabs me Full moon March 16, 2014 10:10:46 AM ESRL http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html#us WPC http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Talk about textbook PNA on gfs. There's a lot that has to go right though but the solution on the gfs lines up nicely with the MJO well into phase 8 for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Actually, I was wrong. My cache had the 00z Euro Contro... 12z Euro control is SE/near miss. wrong…. also control run is a hecs at hr 200 fwiw stop giving wrong info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 wrong…. also control run is a hecs at hr 200 fwiw stop giving wrong info Damn nice! Does it give Mid-atlantic snow as well FWIW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 wrong…. also control run is a hecs at hr 200 fwiw stop giving wrong info How much for the south east part of Brooklyn? Lol jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 12z Euro Control . Is their version wrong ? That`s not a HECS . (yet ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The ensembles look better then bone dry on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 12z Euro Control . Is their version wrong ? That`s not a HECS . (yet )That's the correct version. Wrong info, but the ensembles look good to me.Number 1 analog on euro ensembles are 1993 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Of course, the fine details mean nothing at this point...It does feel really good as a winter lover to have a possible legit threat towards the end of winter. Something to track before spring gives way. Couldnt agree with you more & lets be frank, plenty of instances of snow in NY, under the right circumstances, which can deliver an MECS or in rare instances an HECS. the one thing thats clear this year? Its one of the of the clodest winters Dec-FeB ,in last 35 years or so, chances ( as measured aganist Climo) would obviously be increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 That looks better than the control , if you ask me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Damn nice! Does it give Mid-atlantic snow as well FWIW? The euro ensembles have 5 inches of snow for us. The Euro Control run has nothing on the 12z run. It was the 0z run that was a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 That's the correct version. Wrong info, but the ensembles look good to me. Number 1 analog on euro ensembles are 1993 lol Yeh check out the 500 I just posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Frozen.. Snow Covered Shamrocks ,will be available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 this potential is now legit as the 18Z GFS has jumped on board - see if it continues at 0Z http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014030518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Actually excited about what could be, the look of this is awesome. Mid March seems to be favored for biggies. It would be something if the biggest storm of this winter occurred in mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Yeh check out the 500 I just posted The gefs mean is ridiculously good for this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 meh WAYYYY too hard to get excited for a big snowstorm next week right now. by sunday ill decide if Im jumping on board or not, even that may be too early too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 GFS ensembles looking good http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014030518/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_34.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 6, 2014 Share Posted March 6, 2014 Lots of agreement on the 18z GFS individuals for a big storm during this time period, a lot of sicko solutions on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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