GD0815 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I'm trying to understand your logic. Why would a negative NAO force the storm inland ? i think it was a typo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 If it snows heavy enough, it will stick, even in march. That all depends on temps 24 hours or so before hand and wether we have any sun prior to It. Everything warms up a lot faster now and marginal temps won't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 i think it was a typo? nah...he mentioned it yesterday too...in the sense it is a special situation where a -NAO would force the storm to take a more inland track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 nah...he mentioned it yesterday too...in the sense it is a special situation where a -NAO would force the storm to take a more inland track.Maybe it'll slow everything down and phase way out west. Even if the -nao will force the storm to reform off the coast it might not be enough with a primary so far north in mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I'm trying to understand your logic. Why would a negative NAO force the storm inland ? I interpreted it to mean that the -NAO would cause suppression while the high doesn't allow for an inland track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I interpreted it to mean that the -NAO would cause suppression while the high doesn't allow for an inland track.He said that a -nao would cause an inland track in this case. He even referenced a storm where that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 That small shortwave that crosses the Lakes & heads NE of New England @ 48-72 hours actually plays a pretty important role here with the confluence...If it can be stronger & farther south we could see the entire system set up farther south which would be great news for everyone. Keep an eye on it @ 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I'm trying to understand your logic. Why would a negative NAO force the storm inland ? I'm pretty sure he's saying that too much of a -NAO will hurt with "suppression". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Keep in mind a -NAO in mid March is different than a -NAO in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 nah...he mentioned it yesterday too...in the sense it is a special situation where a -NAO would force the storm to take a more inland track. I have seen cases with fast flow patterns like this where the ridge out west is not well positioned and you have a modestly negative NAO where the -NAO can force a slow down to the pattern allowing a better phase and hence a more inland track than you would have had without the -NAO..no doubt a solid west based NAO though is always going to help NYC as far as seeing all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I have seen cases with fast flow patterns like this where the ridge out west is not well positioned and you have a modestly negative NAO where the -NAO can force a slow down to the pattern allowing a better phase and hence a more inland track than you would have had without the -NAO..no doubt a solid west based NAO though is always going to help NYC as far as seeing all snow. ahh okay that does make some sense. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 ahh okay that does make some sense. Thanks. I believe 12/25/02 was an example of it but I will have to check I think we had a very slightly negative NAO, without it the system may not have been as strong but might have been more snowy for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Gfs hr 90 rain from bdr-south 996 over dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Really warm run. 988 over Delmarva. Rain close to orh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Ugly..rain from Boston-dca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I toggle between NexLab, TropicalTidbits, the NCEP site, and WeatherBell, and I'm still always the last one to see GFS frames. These precious minutes are crucial at 100 hours out, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Well we all saw this coming. Still too much shuffling going around from run to run, will probably take a couple more days to stabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I toggle between NexLab, TropicalTidbits, the NCEP site, and WeatherBell, and I'm still always the last one to see GFS frames. These precious minutes are crucial at 100 hours out, obviously.I think those who get them quicker are usually on stormvista .....and by the way, I'm sure next run will have the storm exit off the Florida coastSent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 So much for a south trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 So much for a south trend.Their has never been a south trend with this storm. Not two runs in a row have been alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I made the point early yesterday that we would all be on the warm side of this. While the NAO is still positive it is heading towards neutral into the event. This means higher 500 mb height anomalies will occur in Canada, particularly the eastern half, allowing for a sharp shortwave to more easily amplify the downstream ridge, ultimately resulting in a more westward track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 It's alright, just the GFS playing out its notorious southeast bias. ...err, wait. The 850 center passes over my house, 75 miles north of NYC. Surface temps are an oven. Let's tweak that a little flatter, perhaps a little less energy pouring into the trough from Canada, and we'll have ourselves a ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Their has never been a south trend with this storm. Not two runs in a row have been alike. +1. Just because it happened with the last storm does not mean it will happen again, conditions are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 0z Ukmet is 995mb south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 When you see the heaviest snow on the models from whiteface to jay peak to killington etc you had to know if you are anywhere near the coast you were cooked. This is going to the euro control. I'm sorry , I said apps 2 days ago and I was hoping to b proven wrong . Not saying it's locked but the set up BL.. In my mind. Looks amped and looks west. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Bottom line is we just have to face it as much as we try to push and as much as we try to fight winter is coming to an end, and that's not. Bad thing it actually a good thing because now we can really try and forecast weather no r/s line no to warm or to cold but actual weather fun times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Even if you get 6+" on the coast (if it trends SE), March snow is tough to keep around (except mall piles)... it will melt regardless of temps (sun angle), appreciate this winter for what it is, even though we did not get much snow after Mid-Feb it was cold so it felt like a brutal and snowy winter, enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I toggle between NexLab, TropicalTidbits, the NCEP site, and WeatherBell, and I'm still always the last one to see GFS frames. These precious minutes are crucial at 100 hours out, obviously. The fastest free site is Instantweathermaps.com. It's as fast as the pay sites with the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Even if you get 6+" on the coast (if it trends SE), March snow is tough to keep around (except mall piles)... it will melt regardless of temps (sun angle), appreciate this winter for what it is, even though we did not get much snow after Mid-Feb it was cold so it felt like a brutal and snowy winter, enjoy Who cares. NYC is a few inches from 2nd place all time. That's the only thing that matters right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Bottom line is we just have to face it as much as we try to push and as much as we try to fight winter is coming to an end, and that's not. Bad thing it actually a good thing because now we can really try and forecast weather no r/s line no to warm or to cold but actual weather fun times ahead Winter this year needs to be watched through April 10th. -EPO patterns always has a late season surprise. March 17th-19th looked decent, if this one doesn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.