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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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nah...he mentioned it yesterday too...in the sense it is a special situation where a -NAO would force the storm to take a more inland track.

Maybe it'll slow everything down and phase way out west. Even if the -nao will force the storm to reform off the coast it might not be enough with a primary so far north in mid March.
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I interpreted it to mean that the -NAO would cause suppression while the high doesn't allow for an inland track.

He said that a -nao would cause an inland track in this case. He even referenced a storm where that happened.
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That small shortwave that crosses the Lakes & heads NE of New England @ 48-72 hours actually plays a pretty important role here with the confluence...If it can be stronger & farther south we could see the entire system set up farther south which would be great news for everyone. Keep an eye on it @ 00z. 

 

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nah...he mentioned it yesterday too...in the sense it is a special situation where a -NAO would force the storm to take a more inland track.

I have seen cases with fast flow patterns like this where the ridge out west is not well positioned and you have a modestly negative NAO where the -NAO can force a slow down to the pattern allowing a better phase and hence a more inland track than you would have had without the -NAO..no doubt a solid west based NAO though is always going to help NYC as far as seeing all snow.

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I have seen cases with fast flow patterns like this where the ridge out west is not well positioned and you have a modestly negative NAO where the -NAO can force a slow down to the pattern allowing a better phase and hence a more inland track than you would have had without the -NAO..no doubt a solid west based NAO though is always going to help NYC as far as seeing all snow.

ahh okay that does make some sense.  Thanks.  

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I toggle between NexLab, TropicalTidbits, the NCEP site, and WeatherBell, and I'm still always the last one to see GFS frames. These precious minutes are crucial at 100 hours out, obviously.

I think those who get them quicker are usually on stormvista .....and by the way, I'm sure next run will have the storm exit off the Florida coast

Sent from my iPhone

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I made the point early yesterday that we would all be on the warm side of this. While the NAO is still positive it is heading towards neutral into the event. This means higher 500 mb height anomalies will occur in Canada, particularly the eastern half, allowing for a sharp shortwave to more easily amplify the downstream ridge, ultimately resulting in a more westward track.

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When you see the heaviest snow on the models from whiteface to jay peak to killington etc you had to know if you are anywhere near the coast you were cooked.

This is going to the euro control. I'm sorry , I said apps 2 days ago and I was hoping to b proven wrong . Not saying it's locked but the set up BL.. In my mind. Looks amped and looks west. Just my opinion.

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Even if you get 6+" on the coast (if it trends SE), March snow is tough to keep around (except mall piles)... it will melt regardless of temps (sun angle), appreciate this winter for what it is, even though we did not get much snow after Mid-Feb it was cold so it felt like a brutal and snowy winter, enjoy

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I toggle between NexLab, TropicalTidbits, the NCEP site, and WeatherBell, and I'm still always the last one to see GFS frames. These precious minutes are crucial at 100 hours out, obviously.

The fastest free site is Instantweathermaps.com.

It's as fast as the pay sites with the NAM and GFS.

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Even if you get 6+" on the coast (if it trends SE), March snow is tough to keep around (except mall piles)... it will melt regardless of temps (sun angle), appreciate this winter for what it is, even though we did not get much snow after Mid-Feb it was cold so it felt like a brutal and snowy winter, enjoy

Who cares.

NYC is a few inches from 2nd place all time. That's the only thing that matters right now.

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Bottom line is we just have to face it as much as we try to push and as much as we try to fight winter is coming to an end, and that's not. Bad thing it actually a good thing because now we can really try and forecast weather no r/s line no to warm or to cold but actual weather fun times ahead

Winter this year needs to be watched through April 10th.

-EPO patterns always has a late season surprise.

March 17th-19th looked decent, if this one doesn't work out.

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