Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 In my point of view, they always seem to be ultra-conservative compared to the forecast offices that surround them. I also think they don't heed as much attention to the southern three counties in their FA, but I bet many people would say something similar for their local forecast office. Agreed that they're very conservative, at least in the winter. We straddle the threshold between the interior and the coastal plain, so it's hard to say whether Dutchess and Ulster are better suited for OKX's area of responsibility. Doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 QPF is almost over an inch in all areas except far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Snow maps don't look all that impressive and this is like last nights 18z run...The surface starts out warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Snow maps don't look all that impressive and this is like last nights 18z run... That is due to surface temps. Starts out as wet snow or rain, then changes over. Our 850 temps are well below freezing though the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 That is due to surface temps. Starts out as wet snow or rain, then changes over. Our 850 temps are well below freezing though the entire run.Yeah. Marginal temps in marginal time of year. A few inches of paste in the higher elevations with a minor accumulation for the city and coastal sections seems a good call for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Sloppy 500 mb field, lots of room for improvements. Interaction between the main trough and the southern s/w is minimal, and for that matter, the impulse diving in from Manitoba never really gets entrained until after the whole system is almost past us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The timing is very good to prevent sun angle and to overcome BL temps (peak is overnight), IF the 850s are SE like the GFS is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 Anyone writing off a snow and or mix event in the metro better think again - that18Z GFS run could easily be the one that is closest to verifying - especially if that HP gets into that position in southeast Canada http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014030818/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 It shows a decent high there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Snow maps don't look all that impressive and this is like last nights 18z run... How much does the snow map show for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Without a negative NAO and that high dropping out of Canada I'm strongly favoring a snowy scenario for most of the area, I don't see this thing being able to really go too far inland not too far south at the same time..again this is a rare case where a negative NAO may have hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 How much does the snow map show for NYC?2-4" at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 How much does the snow map show for NYC? Never use snow maps...only for entertainment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I am actually excited to get into nam range...it has been pretty good this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 How much does the snow map show for NYC? Try not to look at snow maps this far out... they can change drastically from run to run. Try to look at the bigger picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Compare the 18z and the 12z run at Wed 7am, and look how the trough is able to dig more due to the separation of the southern piece from the main trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The whole GFS further south case rests on the the vort coming underneath staying further south and not phasing in more with the vort coming across the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Snow maps never look good when surface is 33-34 degrees. GFS is a wet snow paste bomb. Even for NYC. Let's hope it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 This is about the range the south trend began with the last storm. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Without a negative NAO and that high dropping out of Canada I'm strongly favoring a snowy scenario for most of the area, I don't see this thing being able to really go too far inland not too far south at the same time..again this is a rare case where a negative NAO may have hurt us. I'm trying to understand your logic. Why would a negative NAO force the storm inland ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Snow maps never look good when surface is 33-34 degrees. GFS is a wet snow paste bomb. Even for NYC. Let's hope it's correct. We need to see the other models pick up on this tonight and show the vort ejecting further south through Oklahoma. Otherwise this will just be one of those GFS runs that ends up being too suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 We need to see the other models pick up on this tonight and show the vort ejecting further south through Oklahoma. The confluence also set up further south on this run, that helped out with the more favorable and colder track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Right on cue there's a gfs run that gives the weenies some hope. Taken literally we would probably go to snow earlier than shown due to explosive dynamics and 850s just below 0c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I'm trying to understand your logic. Why would a negative NAO force the storm inland ? I think if we had a true -NAO this would argue for suppression but I'm not a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Weatherbell snow map prints out about 4-8 inches from the 18z run from about Rt. 78 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Weatherbell snow map prints out about 4-8 inches from the 18z run from about Rt. 78 north.10:1 and counts sleet as snow. Instantweathermaps has been far more accurate this winter IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Snow maps never look good when surface is 33-34 degrees. GFS is a wet snow paste bomb. Even for NYC. Let's hope it's correct. I hear ya but 33 or 34 in March. I dunno. I guess if it happens Wed night, that could help if the GFS were correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 10:1 and counts sleet as snow. Instantweathermaps has been far more accurate this winter IMHO. Well, their map shows 4-6 inches from Rt. 78 north. Not much different. I don't think there will be any sleet with this storm. This is rain or snow most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I hear ya but 33 or 34 in March. I dunno. I guess if it happens Wed night, that could help if the GFS were correct. If it snows heavy enough, it will stick, even in march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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