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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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In my point of view, they always seem to be ultra-conservative compared to the forecast offices that surround them.  I also think they don't heed as much attention to the southern three counties in their FA, but I bet many people would say something similar for their local forecast office.

Agreed that they're very conservative, at least in the winter. We straddle the threshold between the interior and the coastal plain, so it's hard to say whether Dutchess and Ulster are better suited for OKX's area of responsibility. Doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things I guess.

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That is due to surface temps. Starts out as wet snow or rain, then changes over. Our 850 temps are well below freezing though the entire run.

Yeah. Marginal temps in marginal time of year. A few inches of paste in the higher elevations with a minor accumulation for the city and coastal sections seems a good call for now.
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Without a negative NAO and that high dropping out of Canada I'm strongly favoring a snowy scenario for most of the area, I don't see this thing being able to really go too far inland not too far south at the same time..again this is a rare case where a negative NAO may have hurt us.

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Without a negative NAO and that high dropping out of Canada I'm strongly favoring a snowy scenario for most of the area, I don't see this thing being able to really go too far inland not too far south at the same time..again this is a rare case where a negative NAO may have hurt us.

I'm trying to understand your logic.  Why would a negative NAO force the storm inland ?

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Snow maps never look good when surface is 33-34 degrees.

GFS is a wet snow paste bomb. Even for NYC.

Let's hope it's correct.

 

We need to see the other models pick up on this tonight and show the vort ejecting further south through Oklahoma.

Otherwise this will just be one of those GFS runs that ends up being too suppressed.

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We need to see the other models pick up on this tonight and show the vort ejecting further south through Oklahoma.

 

The confluence also set up further south on this run, that helped out with the more favorable and colder track. 

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