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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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You do realize that the Euro ensemble mean is in nearly lockstep with the operational? It doesn't get any better than that. It's equivalent to Mariano Rivera being on the mound in the 9th.

Euro and it's ensembles are always similar.

IMO, the euro is the big outlier here.

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This is pretty close to your typical plaster 25 miles NW of the big cities.

We prob not far off. I think 50 miles or so. The control hasn't moved. I see the mean but I just don't like it knyc south and east. Just my thoughts.

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why ? it was a legit threat before 5 days - and notice the headline I created never included the word frozen or snow - and the description is accurate

"legit threat" means very little. it could be a legit threat of some rain
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We prob not far off. I think 50 miles or so. The control hasn't moved. I see the mean but I just don't like it knyc south and east. Just my thoughts.

I truly believe that if the system ends up as dynamic as what's being currently depicted that a large portion of this sub-forum will see mostly frozen precipitation.

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Dang, Albany's AFD is borderline morose. Granted it was issued before the 12z Euro.

 

 

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE MOVING TO CONSENSUS WITH THE WED/THU STORM
WITH SYSTEM WEAKER...FURTHER S AND CONSIDERABLY LESS THREATENING
THEN PVS RUNS.

CDFNT HAS STALLED FM TENN TO VA CAPES BY WED MRNG, STRONG CAA IN
ITS WAKE HAS PUSHED TEMPS BACK TO 10 DEG BLO NORMS. WED AND WED NT
SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS ACT TO DIG TROF FM GRTLKS TO LWR MISS
VLY. HWVR IS WHATS BCMG CLEAR IN THESE RUNS IS WHILE THE LARGER
TROF IS CARVED OUT THERE MUCH LESS PHASING OF SHORT WVS...AND IT
NEVER CLOSES OFF.

RESULT IS GARDEN VARIETY CYCLOGEN ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BNDRY.
..WITH SFC LOW EJECTING ENE TO NJ CST WED NT AND STRAIGHT
OUT TO SEA THU MRNG.

QPF FOR ENTIRE EVENT RANGES FM ECMWF 0 NORTH FCA TO 0.80 SE
CORNER OF FCA...GFS/GEM NR MISS EVERYWHERE EXCPT EXTREME SE.
WHILE PVS GFS ENSEMBLES STILL HAD CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH SVRL
MEMBERS AS WET AS AN EVEN WETTER 12UTC ECMWF...THE TREND HERE IS
TO LESS QPF ACROSS THE BOARD...AND AN EVENT THAT`S TRENDING IN
THE GUID LIKE LAST WEEKENDS MISS.


GIVEN TRENDING...WILL NOT USE HPC GUID. WILL POPULATE WITH
GFS
...BUT NUDGE QPF AND PCPN CHC FURTHER N...BUT NOT AS FAR N AS
HPC OR ECMWF. S AREAS COULD STILL SEE SVRL IN OF SNOW...AND IF HI
END ECMWF IS CORRECT COULD STILL BE LOOKING AT MARGINAL WS
CRITERIA...BUT OUTSIDE THE OUTLIERS...COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SN
TO A NR MISS WITH BEST CHCS S AND E OF ALB.

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Kind of OT but what's the euro showing for the march 17-18 threat. Gfs rendition was no joke!

:weenie:

It's there, but nothing like the GFS (inexplicable, huh?). Some upglide precip with the main show well south and east. Never a dull moment this winter. I believe Tip in the SNE forum has been sounding off for a while about a potential second system between the 18th and the 20th.

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Kudos to the Euro for spotting the storm signal 240 hrs out which trended north over time.

 

The Euro has been overdone quite a bit this winter but it has excelled at broadly identifying long-range threats. When you see a modeled storm at hour 204 or something, you know there will likely be a system of some magnitude in the area. I'm not sure the same could necessarily be said about the GFS.

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The Euro has been overdone quite a bit this winter but it has excelled at broadly identifying long-range threats. When you see a modeled storm at hour 204 or something, you know there will likely be a system of some magnitude in the area. I'm not sure the same could necessarily be said about the GFS.

 

The Euro has a knack for picking up really amplified events very early. It's quite an achievement considering how poor

the model and computer technology was when I was growing up in the 70's and 80's. I can still remember

waiting at the old Alden Difax for the model maps to print out.

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Dang, Albany's AFD is borderline morose. Granted it was issued before the 12z Euro.

 

In my point of view, they always seem to be ultra-conservative compared to the forecast offices that surround them.  I also think they don't heed as much attention to the southern three counties in their FA, but I bet many people would say something similar for their local forecast office.

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