IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Disagree. Amped like the euro is the outlier. You do realize that the Euro ensemble mean is in nearly lockstep with the operational? It doesn't get any better than that. It's equivalent to Mariano Rivera being on the mound in the 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 You do realize that the Euro ensemble mean is in nearly lockstep with the operational? It doesn't get any better than that. It's equivalent to Mariano Rivera being on the mound in the 9th. Euro and it's ensembles are always similar. IMO, the euro is the big outlier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 This is pretty close to your typical plaster 25 miles NW of the big cities. We prob not far off. I think 50 miles or so. The control hasn't moved. I see the mean but I just don't like it knyc south and east. Just my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 why ? it was a legit threat before 5 days - and notice the headline I created never included the word frozen or snow - and the description is accurate"legit threat" means very little. it could be a legit threat of some rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Euro and it's ensembles are always similar. IMO, the euro is the big outlier here. We'll see what happens. Using rough math and adding together looks like the Euro ensemble mean is ~0.85" for all areas. A bit more NW and a bit less SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 We prob not far off. I think 50 miles or so. The control hasn't moved. I see the mean but I just don't like it knyc south and east. Just my thoughts. I truly believe that if the system ends up as dynamic as what's being currently depicted that a large portion of this sub-forum will see mostly frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I truly believe that if the system ends up as dynamic as what's being currently depicted that a large portion of this sub-forum will see mostly frozen precipitation. We need the low to exit off NJ and bomb northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 "legit threat" means very little. it could be a legit threat of some rain So what's wrong with that. a storms a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I love nice rainstorms, the chances for significant snows past March 10th are very slim anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I love nice rainstorms, the chances for significant snows past March 10th are very slim anyway. Up in my area, it not out of the norm into late March. Out of the norm is getting shut out in March with no snow. I still think I can get some snow at my location mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I love nice rainstorms, the chances for significant snows past March 10th are very slim anyway. Anamalous rainstorms ( 3+QPF) complete with thunder and wind are fun yes. 2 inches of rain & 37 F is most definitly not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 So folks have resigned themselves to a run-of-the-mill rainstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Dang, Albany's AFD is borderline morose. Granted it was issued before the 12z Euro. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE MOVING TO CONSENSUS WITH THE WED/THU STORMWITH SYSTEM WEAKER...FURTHER S AND CONSIDERABLY LESS THREATENINGTHEN PVS RUNS.CDFNT HAS STALLED FM TENN TO VA CAPES BY WED MRNG, STRONG CAA INITS WAKE HAS PUSHED TEMPS BACK TO 10 DEG BLO NORMS. WED AND WED NTSERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WVS ACT TO DIG TROF FM GRTLKS TO LWR MISSVLY. HWVR IS WHATS BCMG CLEAR IN THESE RUNS IS WHILE THE LARGERTROF IS CARVED OUT THERE MUCH LESS PHASING OF SHORT WVS...AND ITNEVER CLOSES OFF.RESULT IS GARDEN VARIETY CYCLOGEN ALONG THE STALLED FRONTALBNDRY...WITH SFC LOW EJECTING ENE TO NJ CST WED NT AND STRAIGHTOUT TO SEA THU MRNG.QPF FOR ENTIRE EVENT RANGES FM ECMWF 0 NORTH FCA TO 0.80 SECORNER OF FCA...GFS/GEM NR MISS EVERYWHERE EXCPT EXTREME SE.WHILE PVS GFS ENSEMBLES STILL HAD CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH SVRLMEMBERS AS WET AS AN EVEN WETTER 12UTC ECMWF...THE TREND HERE ISTO LESS QPF ACROSS THE BOARD...AND AN EVENT THAT`S TRENDING INTHE GUID LIKE LAST WEEKENDS MISS.GIVEN TRENDING...WILL NOT USE HPC GUID. WILL POPULATE WITHGFS...BUT NUDGE QPF AND PCPN CHC FURTHER N...BUT NOT AS FAR N ASHPC OR ECMWF. S AREAS COULD STILL SEE SVRL IN OF SNOW...AND IF HIEND ECMWF IS CORRECT COULD STILL BE LOOKING AT MARGINAL WSCRITERIA...BUT OUTSIDE THE OUTLIERS...COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNTO A NR MISS WITH BEST CHCS S AND E OF ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Kind of OT but what's the euro showing for the march 17-18 threat. Gfs rendition was no joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Kind of OT but what's the euro showing for the march 17-18 threat. Gfs rendition was no joke! Some of you guys.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Kudos to the Euro for spotting the storm signal 240 hrs out which trended north over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 Kind of OT but what's the euro showing for the march 17-18 threat. Gfs rendition was no joke! 17h - 18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Kind of OT but what's the euro showing for the march 17-18 threat. Gfs rendition was no joke! It's there, but nothing like the GFS (inexplicable, huh?). Some upglide precip with the main show well south and east. Never a dull moment this winter. I believe Tip in the SNE forum has been sounding off for a while about a potential second system between the 18th and the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Kudos to the Euro for spotting the storm signal 240 hrs out which trended north over time. The Euro has been overdone quite a bit this winter but it has excelled at broadly identifying long-range threats. When you see a modeled storm at hour 204 or something, you know there will likely be a system of some magnitude in the area. I'm not sure the same could necessarily be said about the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Anyone counting this threst out hasn't been around much this winter lol. Expect the unexpected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12z Canadian ensemble mean is south and east of the operational run and looks very similar to the Euro, possibly even a hair south and east of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The Euro has been overdone quite a bit this winter but it has excelled at broadly identifying long-range threats. When you see a modeled storm at hour 204 or something, you know there will likely be a system of some magnitude in the area. I'm not sure the same could necessarily be said about the GFS. The Euro has a knack for picking up really amplified events very early. It's quite an achievement considering how poor the model and computer technology was when I was growing up in the 70's and 80's. I can still remember waiting at the old Alden Difax for the model maps to print out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 GFS looking like the Euro, much more energy being ejected eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Should be a really nice run incoming. Going to be south of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 18z GFS well south of previous run. Snow from Rt. 78 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 It exits this time off the Delmarva rather then across South Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Dang, Albany's AFD is borderline morose. Granted it was issued before the 12z Euro. In my point of view, they always seem to be ultra-conservative compared to the forecast offices that surround them. I also think they don't heed as much attention to the southern three counties in their FA, but I bet many people would say something similar for their local forecast office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Paste bomb! Heavy wet snow even changing at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Nice snowstorm on the gfs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Snow maps don't look all that impressive and this is like last nights 18z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.