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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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Small experiment.  Been out since 10 am so haven't seen any models (errands, then the RU hoops game - we lost - again).  Thread was on page 28 when I left and hadn't had more than 10 posts since last night.  Thread now lists 31 pages.  I think there's a 99% chance one or both of the GFS and Euro are back to showing some or mostly snow for the area, including the I-95 corridor.  Otherwise, we'd be on page 29, lol.  Let's see if I'm right...

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Small experiment.  Been out since 10 am so haven't seen any models (errands, then the RU hoops game - we lost - again).  Thread was on page 28 when I left and hadn't had more than 10 posts since last night.  Thread now lists 31 pages.  I think there's a 99% chance one or both of the GFS and Euro are back to showing some or mostly snow for the area, including the I-95 corridor.  Otherwise, we'd be on page 29, lol.  Let's see if I'm right...

Both are back to showing more of a dynamic system. How does that sound? Rain for you backyard.

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Small experiment.  Been out since 10 am so haven't seen any models (errands, then the RU hoops game - we lost - again).  Thread was on page 28 when I left and hadn't had more than 10 posts since last night.  Thread now lists 31 pages.  I think there's a 99% chance one or both of the GFS and Euro are back to showing some or mostly snow for the area, including the I-95 corridor.  Otherwise, we'd be on page 29, lol.  Let's see if I'm right...

Experiment fail, lol.  Surprised those runs led to 3 more pages of posts.  Desperation is in the air, although I guess there's always a chance things could trend east and colder. 

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Experiment fail, lol.  Surprised those runs led to 3 more pages of posts.  Desperation is in the air, although I guess there's always a chance things could trend east and colder.

this thread should not have been made when the threat was beyond day 5
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Yup but that does not start until severe weather season and tropical season.. ;)

Maybe for some... not the hardcore weather people like me.

 

I'm actually looking forward to some down time. We never really had more than a day or so all winter where the models were showing nothing.

 

Some winters we're sitting here for weeks on end talking about stratospheric warming and how the pattern might flip. This year was wall to wall action. It will spoil the weenies once again. That's not normal for this area.

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How is it looking way inland Vermont area. I have been waiting for a big dump to head up. I would think this is the best chance yet.

I think the issue has been and will continue to be people lovking into threats way outside 72 hours . can you imagine this gets suppressed! It still on the table

The 12z Euro has nearly all of Vermont in the 18"+ category. Even if this tracks a bit south Vermont will still do very well.

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Yanksfan,

You are way too confident that the euros amped up solution will be correct.

A weak and shredded ukmet solution is just as possible.

I'm too smart to completely dismiss the sheared out option, but the UKMET really? You mean the model that is always too far south and east with nearly every system?

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The 12z Euro has nearly all of Vermont in the 18"+ category. Even if this tracks a bit south Vermont will still do very well.

This directly from BTV disco. they are far less certain than you :

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN CHANCE

POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY IN

THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AT THIS TIME. THUS...FORECASTER

CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A RIDGE

OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND

FRIDAY...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

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I see the same thing playing out over and over again here. Too many get hung up on what the models use to show and ignore what the guidance now shows .

The air mass in front if this terrible so a sheared out system

doesn't produce much snow and a wound up system cuts

You can't keep trying to make chicken soup out of chicken .....

If you're a lover of a nice rain storm that's kool. Because that's what the euro shows. All this there's plenty of time. Toss this. If only this. Etc. Sorry guys had to get this off the pecs

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This directly from BTV disco. they are far less certain than you :

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN CHANCE

POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY IN

THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AT THIS TIME. THUS...FORECASTER

CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A RIDGE

OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND

FRIDAY...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

Btvs forecast area is pretty far north. If you follow the ski thread in ne forum northern Vermont has been getting shafted this winter. So btv going with the trend is not surprising
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I see the same thing playing out over and over again here. Too many get hung up on what the models use to show and ignore what the guidance now shows .

The air mass in front if this terrible so a sheared out system

doesn't produce much snow and a wound up system cuts

You can't keep trying to make chicken soup out of chicken .....

If you're a lover of a nice rain storm that's kool. Because that's what the euro shows. All this there's plenty of time. Toss this. If only this. Etc. Sorry guys had to get this off the pecs

This is pretty close to your typical plaster 25 miles NW of the big cities.

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this thread should not have been made when the threat was beyond day 5

why ? it was a legit threat before 5 days - and notice the headline I created never included the word frozen or snow - and the description is accurate

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