H2Otown_WX Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 2005 had a flash freeze mid month. Was around 40 and rain in the morning and was in teens by the evening and everything was a sheet of ice. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0308.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Small experiment. Been out since 10 am so haven't seen any models (errands, then the RU hoops game - we lost - again). Thread was on page 28 when I left and hadn't had more than 10 posts since last night. Thread now lists 31 pages. I think there's a 99% chance one or both of the GFS and Euro are back to showing some or mostly snow for the area, including the I-95 corridor. Otherwise, we'd be on page 29, lol. Let's see if I'm right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Small experiment. Been out since 10 am so haven't seen any models (errands, then the RU hoops game - we lost - again). Thread was on page 28 when I left and hadn't had more than 10 posts since last night. Thread now lists 31 pages. I think there's a 99% chance one or both of the GFS and Euro are back to showing some or mostly snow for the area, including the I-95 corridor. Otherwise, we'd be on page 29, lol. Let's see if I'm right... Both are back to showing more of a dynamic system. How does that sound? Rain for you backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0308.php Small experiment. Been out since 10 am so haven't seen any models (errands, then the RU hoops game - we lost - again). Thread was on page 28 when I left and hadn't had more than 10 posts since last night. Thread now lists 31 pages. I think there's a 99% chance one or both of the GFS and Euro are back to showing some or mostly snow for the area, including the I-95 corridor. Otherwise, we'd be on page 29, lol. Let's see if I'm right... Experiment fail, lol. Surprised those runs led to 3 more pages of posts. Desperation is in the air, although I guess there's always a chance things could trend east and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Experiment fail, lol. Surprised those runs led to 3 more pages of posts. Desperation is in the air, although I guess there's always a chance things could trend east and colder. Their is more to exciting weather than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Experiment fail, lol. Surprised those runs led to 3 more pages of posts. Desperation is in the air, although I guess there's always a chance things could trend east and colder.this thread should not have been made when the threat was beyond day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Their is more to exciting weather than snow. Yup but that does not start until severe weather season and tropical season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 How is it looking way inland Vermont area. I have been waiting for a big dump to head up. I would think this is the best chance yet. I think the issue has been and will continue to be people locking into threats way outside 72 hours . can you imagine this gets suppressed! It's still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yup but that does not start until severe weather season and tropical season.. Maybe for some... not the hardcore weather people like me. I'm actually looking forward to some down time. We never really had more than a day or so all winter where the models were showing nothing. Some winters we're sitting here for weeks on end talking about stratospheric warming and how the pattern might flip. This year was wall to wall action. It will spoil the weenies once again. That's not normal for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 How is it looking way inland Vermont area. I have been waiting for a big dump to head up. I would think this is the best chance yet. I think the issue has been and will continue to be people lovking into threats way outside 72 hours . can you imagine this gets suppressed! It still on the table The 12z Euro has nearly all of Vermont in the 18"+ category. Even if this tracks a bit south Vermont will still do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yanksfan, You are way too confident that the euros amped up solution will be correct. A weak and shredded ukmet solution is just as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The 12z Euro has nearly all of Vermont in the 18"+ category. Even if this tracks a bit south Vermont will still do very well.Sweet getting the boys excited and booking it to Stratton most likely. March is my favorite month in Vermont. Big storms not ridiculously cold or warm and full coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yanksfan, You are way too confident that the euros amped up solution will be correct. A weak and shredded ukmet solution is just as possible. I'm too smart to completely dismiss the sheared out option, but the UKMET really? You mean the model that is always too far south and east with nearly every system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yup but that does not start until severe weather season and tropical season.. Sad to say but it's looking like what tropical season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The 12z Euro has nearly all of Vermont in the 18"+ category. Even if this tracks a bit south Vermont will still do very well. This directly from BTV disco. they are far less certain than you : HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AT THIS TIME. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Sweet getting the boys excited and booking it to Stratton most likely. March is my favorite month in Vermont. Big storms not ridiculously cold or warm and full coverage. The only way you're going to get screwed up there is if the UKMET or JMA verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yankee, the gefs also show alot of members south of the op. Euro could be overamped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Euro ensembles are going to come in very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yankee, the gefs also show alot of members south of the op. Euro could be overamped. South of the OP is certainly plausible. Weak and sheared out is a distant outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njblizzard Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 How does it look for NEPA? Gotta be in Scranton on Wednesday and thursday for business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Sub 992mb right over Baltimore hour 108 on the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Hour 114 sub 988mb low in nearly identical position to the OP. All of New England Outside of the 95 corridor is crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The tracks right over the benchmark, Boston flipping to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I see the same thing playing out over and over again here. Too many get hung up on what the models use to show and ignore what the guidance now shows . The air mass in front if this terrible so a sheared out system doesn't produce much snow and a wound up system cuts You can't keep trying to make chicken soup out of chicken ..... If you're a lover of a nice rain storm that's kool. Because that's what the euro shows. All this there's plenty of time. Toss this. If only this. Etc. Sorry guys had to get this off the pecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The Euro ensembles have spoken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 South of the OP is certainly plausible. Weak and sheared out is a distant outlier. Disagree. Amped like the euro is the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 This directly from BTV disco. they are far less certain than you : HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AT THIS TIME. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. Btvs forecast area is pretty far north. If you follow the ski thread in ne forum northern Vermont has been getting shafted this winter. So btv going with the trend is not surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I see the same thing playing out over and over again here. Too many get hung up on what the models use to show and ignore what the guidance now shows . The air mass in front if this terrible so a sheared out system doesn't produce much snow and a wound up system cuts You can't keep trying to make chicken soup out of chicken ..... If you're a lover of a nice rain storm that's kool. Because that's what the euro shows. All this there's plenty of time. Toss this. If only this. Etc. Sorry guys had to get this off the pecs This is pretty close to your typical plaster 25 miles NW of the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 this thread should not have been made when the threat was beyond day 5 why ? it was a legit threat before 5 days - and notice the headline I created never included the word frozen or snow - and the description is accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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