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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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I'm not buying those thermal profiles. At hour 114 you have a sub 984 mb low off the NJ coast. Verbatim it has the surface freezing line over Warren and Sussex Counties and the 850mb freezing line right over 287. With that dynamic of a bombing low pressure system you're not going to plain rain NW of 95.

 

We're talking moderate to perhaps heavy precip here, thinking we dynamically cool and wet bulb some. Thinking heavy wet snow for the I-287 corridor and a mixed bag for the city flipping to snow at the end. Only areas seeing plain rain should be east and south of NYC proper.

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850 temps at +7C or warmer during the height of precip for the immediate metro, even +4C for me up here. Litchfield hills would probably do ok, but at reasonable elevations you have to be north of I-90 to not worry on that run. Almost 1.5" QPF for the mid-Hudson Valley.

 

I like that a wound-up, prolific storm system is still on the table, but I have some latitude and a little bit of elevation to work with. I would be wary along the coastal plain, but cautiously optimistic; the 850 temp gradient is tight to the NW, and colder air comes rushing in behind the mid-level centers as soon as they pass overhead. It wouldn't take a huge shift to bring many folks back in the game.

 

It's a shame the sfc high to the north has diminished in recent model runs.

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That will benefit everyone on this forum.

Agreed. I'm not buying this quite yet. We have a long way to go. I would rather not be in the bulls eye at day 5 again. We've seen some wild swings. That being said, I would rather be on the southern edge right now than have this modeled as weak and suppressed.

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Agreed. I'm not buying this quite yet. We have a long way to go. I would rather not be in the bulls eye at day 5 again. We've seen some wild swings. That being said, I would rather be on the southern edge right now than have this modeled as weak and suppressed.

I love snow but a raging rainstorm will be pretty nice if the coast doesn't see snow.

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12/25/02 had the low close off which it doesn't here, we never got much above 40 that day

Yeah I wasn't comparing the two setups. Just asking because I don't really remember too much other than the severe storm with hail and then the flip to very heavy snow. Recorded just over 8" that day in my backyard.

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Not up here. That would bring flooding and ice jams.  We still have snow pack and frozen ground underneath.

We still have snow here too but a lot of it has melted in the past day and more will melt before any potential system as we have full sun the next few days and seasonably warm to slightly warmer temperatures. The ground will thaw a good bit. I don't believe that flooding is going to be a concern at this time.

 

Now if we end up with one of our 2.5"+ widespread rain events that's a different story.

 

If the interior does get blasted by significant snows from this upcoming storm, the flooding potential will increase greatly for the end of the month.

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Will be hard to escape that this spring unfortunately.. Whether its now or a month from now

We've been fortunate so far this season. Go back two weeks ago and the ice pack up here was holding in excess of 3-5" worth of water in spots. The ground was frozen solid and the rivers were loaded with ice. Instead of significant rain we managed to only see about a half inch in most locals to coincide with the 60 degree temps.

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We've been fortunate so far this season. Go back two weeks ago and the ice pack up here was holding in excess of 3-5" worth of water in spots. The ground was frozen solid and the rivers were loaded with ice. Instead of significant rain we managed to only see about a half inch in most locals to coincide with the 60 degree temps.

Yeah best case scenario is for a relatively dry next 6 weeks with a slow melt

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I remember a March event where it went from heavy rain to snow and very cold temperatures. It wasn't a lot of snow but traveling was awful with snow and ice on the main roads.

I remember it very well too, it was mid March and it was a very small but highly intense storm that went from from rain into a flash freeze in the city proper. Remember having a smoke break at noon and leaving home early at around 3p with moderate highly flufy snow falling, dont tthink we got more than 3 inches but it was an amazing turnaround of around 30 degrees ( aprox in 4 hours or so) maybe 8-9 years ago

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