SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Love it a nice awesome storm, of course it's rain. Why would it be anything else.its a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I'm not buying those thermal profiles. At hour 114 you have a sub 984 mb low off the NJ coast. Verbatim it has the surface freezing line over Warren and Sussex Counties and the 850mb freezing line right over 287. With that dynamic of a bombing low pressure system you're not going to plain rain NW of 95. We're talking moderate to perhaps heavy precip here, thinking we dynamically cool and wet bulb some. Thinking heavy wet snow for the I-287 corridor and a mixed bag for the city flipping to snow at the end. Only areas seeing plain rain should be east and south of NYC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Love it a nice awesome storm, of course it's rain. Why would it be anything else.its a great run. It's only ~1.00" of rain this run. We really need the low to pass off the Delmarva instead of over NJ. That will get us into the developing CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 It's only ~1.00" of rain this run. We really need the low to pass off the Delmarva instead of over NJ. That will get us into the developing CCB. That will benefit everyone on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 GGEM too i guess I ? I'm surprised you don't think there is a clear trend as we get closer to this storm. The 12z GGEM is hideous unless you were looking for a quick cold frontal passage and an isolated rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 850 temps at +7C or warmer during the height of precip for the immediate metro, even +4C for me up here. Litchfield hills would probably do ok, but at reasonable elevations you have to be north of I-90 to not worry on that run. Almost 1.5" QPF for the mid-Hudson Valley. I like that a wound-up, prolific storm system is still on the table, but I have some latitude and a little bit of elevation to work with. I would be wary along the coastal plain, but cautiously optimistic; the 850 temp gradient is tight to the NW, and colder air comes rushing in behind the mid-level centers as soon as they pass overhead. It wouldn't take a huge shift to bring many folks back in the game. It's a shame the sfc high to the north has diminished in recent model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Maybe we can get an 1888 going, heavy rain and 50s into blinding snow, JK there's no way that would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 That will benefit everyone on this forum. Agreed. I'm not buying this quite yet. We have a long way to go. I would rather not be in the bulls eye at day 5 again. We've seen some wild swings. That being said, I would rather be on the southern edge right now than have this modeled as weak and suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 We need this storm to bomb out east of NJ for the coast to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Maybe we can get an 1888 going, heavy rain and 50s into blinding snow, JK there's no way that would happen. How much did the temperature fall on 12/25/02. Only day I've ever experienced a truly severe thunderstorm and heavy snow on the same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I agree that it's still several days out and a lot can and will change obviously. We could use a 400 mile south shift with this storm like the last lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Agreed. I'm not buying this quite yet. We have a long way to go. I would rather not be in the bulls eye at day 5 again. We've seen some wild swings. That being said, I would rather be on the southern edge right now than have this modeled as weak and suppressed. I love snow but a raging rainstorm will be pretty nice if the coast doesn't see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 How much did the temperature fall on 12/25/02. Only day I've ever experienced a truly severe thunderstorm and heavy snow on the same day. I remember it being in the 50s in the morning and 20s at night with blinding snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 We need this storm to bomb out east of NJ for the coast to see snow. This isn't your typical coastal nor'easter. More of a bowling ball type low that they are used to dealing with more in the mid-west. If the low had tracked 50-75 miles further south this run we would have been plastered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I love snow but a raging rainstorm will be pretty nice if the coast doesn't see snow. Only if we can get a March 2010 redux A 1-2" rainstorm without much wind won't do much except cause some minor river flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 How much did the temperature fall on 12/25/02. Only day I've ever experienced a truly severe thunderstorm and heavy snow on the same day. 12/25/02 had the low close off which it doesn't here, we never got much above 40 that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_96hr500bw.gif Upstream Ridge Looks Fantastic -imo- from the OPC 96hr cast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12/25/02 had the low close off which it doesn't here, we never got much above 40 that day Yeah I wasn't comparing the two setups. Just asking because I don't really remember too much other than the severe storm with hail and then the flip to very heavy snow. Recorded just over 8" that day in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Today's 12z JMA splits the energy out west and is relatively weak and OTS. If any model resembles the JMA it's probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I remember a March event where it went from heavy rain to snow and very cold temperatures. It wasn't a lot of snow but traveling was awful with snow and ice on the main roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I love snow but a raging rainstorm will be pretty nice if the coast doesn't see snow. Not up here. That would bring flooding and ice jams. We still have snow pack and frozen ground underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Not up here. That would bring flooding and ice jams. We still have snow pack and frozen ground underneath. We still have snow here too but a lot of it has melted in the past day and more will melt before any potential system as we have full sun the next few days and seasonably warm to slightly warmer temperatures. The ground will thaw a good bit. I don't believe that flooding is going to be a concern at this time. Now if we end up with one of our 2.5"+ widespread rain events that's a different story. If the interior does get blasted by significant snows from this upcoming storm, the flooding potential will increase greatly for the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Not up here. That would bring flooding and ice jams. We still have snow pack and frozen ground underneath. Will be hard to escape that this spring unfortunately.. Whether its now or a month from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Love it a nice awesome storm, of course it's rain. Why would it be anything else.its a great run. have you considered becoming a used car salesman? you definitely have potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Will be hard to escape that this spring unfortunately.. Whether its now or a month from now We've been fortunate so far this season. Go back two weeks ago and the ice pack up here was holding in excess of 3-5" worth of water in spots. The ground was frozen solid and the rivers were loaded with ice. Instead of significant rain we managed to only see about a half inch in most locals to coincide with the 60 degree temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 We've been fortunate so far this season. Go back two weeks ago and the ice pack up here was holding in excess of 3-5" worth of water in spots. The ground was frozen solid and the rivers were loaded with ice. Instead of significant rain we managed to only see about a half inch in most locals to coincide with the 60 degree temps. Yeah best case scenario is for a relatively dry next 6 weeks with a slow melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I remember a March event where it went from heavy rain to snow and very cold temperatures. It wasn't a lot of snow but traveling was awful with snow and ice on the main roads. I remember it very well too, it was mid March and it was a very small but highly intense storm that went from from rain into a flash freeze in the city proper. Remember having a smoke break at noon and leaving home early at around 3p with moderate highly flufy snow falling, dont tthink we got more than 3 inches but it was an amazing turnaround of around 30 degrees ( aprox in 4 hours or so) maybe 8-9 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I remember a March event where it went from heavy rain to snow and very cold temperatures. It wasn't a lot of snow but traveling was awful with snow and ice on the main roads. Either march 2004 or 2005 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Either march 2004 or 2005 I believe. 2005 had a flash freeze mid month. Was around 40 and rain in the morning and was in teens by the evening and everything was a sheet of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_24hrbw.gif match it to your model of choice http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/hemi/n_pacific/current/n_pacific.vis.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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