Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yeah shame we couldn't end on a better note but this is just a rain event unless things completely change.we still have the march 17-18 threat ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The air mass in front of this system is warm. This is trending towards the control run . Remember when u saw the euro ensembles 7 days out they look great because the spread in the members are Albany to a whiff But now as you get closer you see the ensembles are a little more west at just day 5. Notice how the control hasn't moved. This doesn't smell like snow to me here not even a little. Sorry just my opinion boys. How west was the control run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 we still have the march 17-18 threat ;-) Hah, check it out on the GFS. Two part 40-hour event with 2" of mostly frozen QPF. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yeah shame we couldn't end on a better note but this is just a rain event unless things completely change. and with Euro deamplifying yesterday it appears this is another battle GFS might win & the King, if it keeps this up for long, wont be king for very long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12z Ukmet is still weak and south. 12z Ggem is a cutter into Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12z Ukmet is still weak and south. 12z Ggem is a cutter into Buffalo. Well, at least we have consistency... /sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 and with Euro deamplifying yesterday it appears this is another battle GFS might win & the King, if it keeps this up for long, wont be king for very long! The GFS is in 5th place currently for verification purposes at 120 hrs on the 12z run, behind even the JMA. The Euro is in first. The only model that does worse than the GFS is the NAVGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The fat lady is clearing her throat. This is almost over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The fat lady is clearing her throat. This is almost over How? The range of solutions are huge. The GGEM is way north. BTW... The NAVGEM has a very progressive bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12z GFS ensemble mean is quite a bit further south with the storm and cold air, and looks very much like the Euro with the placement of the low and 850 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The fat lady is clearing her throat. This is almost over No it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12z GFS ensemble mean is quite a bit further south with the storm and cold air, and looks very much like the Euro with the placement of the low and 850 line. Lets see what the king brings in the next hour I think it will bevery telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Lets see what the king brings in the next hour I think it will bevery telling Not really. We aren't even inside of 72 hours yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Lets see what the king brings in the next hour I think it will bevery telling I wouldn't say king after the performance this winter. The models are going to change in the upcoming days. You will not get a final solution until at least Monday or even Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The GFS is under 0.75" QPF. If it's going to be rain give me a March 2010 redux or give me sunny sky's and 60 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I wouldn't count this one out yet. With the storm still being over 4 days away, we know from every other storm that things change quickly. Aside from that, the models have not even come close to reaching a consensus. While the chances of a 6"+ snowfall are relatively low, the chance of 3"+ of snow is still relatively high in my opinion Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 How west was the control run? 0 line from Jamestown to Binghamton through the CT MASS border . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12z Ukie is weak and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Lets see what the king brings in the next hour I think it will bevery telling Yeah, what is interesting is how the European and Canadian models have both been extremely good at day 5 recently, with the Euro in a slight lead, but they are both way ahead of all the other models. Now the Euro and Canadian are MUCH different. Very interesting. I am wondering if the new data will indeed push this further north on the European,as the Canadian model just did. I have noticed with almost all the big storms this year how the Canadian has been the first to signal a major change around this time period. Shall be interesting to see the Euro. If it goes north this is probably over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 we still have the march 17-18 threat ;-) This threat was also very nice on the European this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12z GEFS are all over the place. Most of them are south of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Looking at the individual euro ensemble members from this morning there are equally as many intensely wrapped-upped and gorgeous members south and east as there are north and west. This can still go either way. This is a very complicated situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Looking at the individual euro ensemble members from this morning there are equally as many intensely wrapped-upped and gorgeous members south and east as there are north and west. This can still go either way. This is a very complicated situation.Fully agree, just read HPC's discussion. They say that the models are under cutting the ridge too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 12z GEFS are all over the place. Most of them are south of the op. Anything can happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Euro looking a lot more amplified out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Fully agree, just read HPC's discussion. They say that the models are under cutting the ridge too much. Also of note will be 1.) how much of the energy out west comes east in 1 nicely wrapped pacakge 2.) when, where does the phase take place We need most of energy to move as 1 piece & the phase around the TN Valley . Its an intricate set up required for the Euro bomb solution to evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Holding back less energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Euro looking a lot more amplified out west. Giggty Giggty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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