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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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The air mass in front of this system is warm. This is trending towards the control run . Remember when u saw the euro ensembles 7 days out they look great because the spread in the members are Albany to a whiff

But now as you get closer you see the ensembles are a little more west at just day 5. Notice how the control hasn't moved.

This doesn't smell like snow to me here not even a little.

Sorry just my opinion boys.

How west was the control run?

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Yeah shame we couldn't end on a better note but this is just a rain event unless things completely change.

and with Euro deamplifying yesterday it appears this is another battle GFS might win & the King, if it keeps  this up for long, wont be king for very long!

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and with Euro deamplifying yesterday it appears this is another battle GFS might win & the King, if it keeps  this up for long, wont be king for very long!

 

The GFS is in 5th place currently for verification purposes at 120 hrs on the 12z run, behind even the JMA.  The Euro is in first.  The only model that does worse than the GFS is the NAVGEM.

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Lets see what the king brings in the next hour I think it will bevery telling

I wouldn't say king after the performance this winter. The models are going to change in the upcoming days. You will not get a final solution until at least Monday or even Tuesday.

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I wouldn't count this one out yet. With the storm still being over 4 days away, we know from every other storm that things change quickly. Aside from that, the models have not even come close to reaching a consensus. While the chances of a 6"+ snowfall are relatively low, the chance of 3"+ of snow is still relatively high in my opinion

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Lets see what the king brings in the next hour I think it will bevery telling

 

Yeah, what is interesting is how the European and Canadian models have both been extremely good at day 5 recently, with the Euro in a slight lead, but they are both way ahead of all the other models.  Now the Euro and Canadian are MUCH different.  Very interesting.  I am wondering if the new data will indeed push this further north on the European,as the Canadian model just did.  I have noticed with almost all the big storms this year how the Canadian has been the first to signal a major change around this time period.  Shall be interesting to see the Euro.  If it goes north this is probably over. 

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Looking at the individual euro ensemble members from this morning there are equally as many intensely wrapped-upped and gorgeous members south and east as there are north and west. This can still go either way. This is a very complicated situation.

Fully agree, just read HPC's discussion. They say that the models are under cutting the ridge too much.
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Fully agree, just read HPC's discussion. They say that the models are under cutting the ridge too much.

Also of note will be 

1.) how much of the energy out west comes east in 1 nicely wrapped pacakge

2.) when, where does the phase take place

 

We need most of energy to move as 1 piece & the phase around the TN Valley . Its an intricate set up required for the Euro bomb solution to evolve.

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