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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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Yea That was awesome. My fav was the 50dbz storm. Giant flakes and constant lightning for 20 min before the change over, never saw anything like that. (although a few days later we had another convective storm which was really good as well)

Yes Feb 13 was awesome, my second fav, had lightning here too and even high winds resulting in a 15minute power failure. If not for the taint, that would have been my best.

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The energy coming down from Manitoba was not nearly as meridional this run as it was on the 12z run. It was definitely suspiciously meridional on the past run, given there's not a whole lot of blocking to force energy diving from due north to south.

 

But the energy holding back to the west hurts a lot as well. 

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The energy coming down from Manitoba was not nearly as meridional this run as it was on the 12z run. It was definitely suspiciously meridional on the past run, given there's not a whole lot of blocking to force energy diving from due north to south.

 

But the energy holding back to the west hurts a lot as well.

Was the euro rain or snow?

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fear not .....says the WPC  ;)

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
100 AM EST SAT MAR 08 2014

VALID 12Z TUE MAR 11 2014 - 12Z SAT MAR 15 2014

...OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD THROUGH THE PAC NW AND BRITISH COLUMBIA
INTO THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES MIDWEEK
WHILE DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE
TROUGHING PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A DEEPENING SYSTEM MOVING ROUGHLY ALONG 40N FROM KS TO KY
TO CAPE COD TUE-THU/D3-5... RESPECTIVELY. THE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
STEADILY SHOWING A SYSTEM WITH A SLOW TREND TOWARD A DEEPER
SOLUTION WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE NARROWED THEIR RANGE
OVER THE PAST 48 HRS. HOWEVER... THE ECMWF STILL LIES ON THE
SLOWER AND MORE DEVELOPED SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD WHILE THE
GFS LIES ON THE QUICKER AND LESS DEVELOPED SIDE. PHASING OF
ENERGY... OR NOT... BETWEEN THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
LIKELY REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. RIDGING OVER THE
WEST WILL TRY TO REMAIN IN TACT... THOUGH ENERGY FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL ATTEMPT TO WHITTLE AWAY AT IT
BUT SHOULD BE LARGELY
UNSUCCESSFUL.
AGAIN THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW FRI/D6 COMPARED TO THE
GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLES. A NEARLY EVEN BLEND AMONG THE 18Z GFS/GEFS
AND 12Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN OFFERED A REASONABLE STARTING POINT FOR
THE FORECAST... TRENDING TOWARD AN 80/20 ENSEMBLE/DETERMINISTIC
WEIGHTING BY SAT/D7. UKMET/CANADIAN HAVE YET TO JOIN THIS ONGOING
GOOD CLUSTER. 

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/d5500wbg.gif

 

 

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f120_us.html

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Yeah. Verbatim it's a 984 inside the bm.

That kind of deepening storm you wouldnt even have much mixing along the coast. However this is the 6z and i am going to keep my excitement tempered until 12z tommorow. Looks like from the last model suites it has gotten progressively colder so that is a good sign as well IMO

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That kind of deepening storm you wouldnt even have much mixing along the coast. However this is the 6z and i am going to keep my excitement tempered until 12z tommorow. Looks like from the last model suites it has gotten progressively colder so that is a good sign as well IMO

Huh. The 6z GFS is a cold rain storm for the city south and east. We are plus 2 all the way to hour 120. Then the system deepens east of us.

Wrap around snows are rare. You want this well south of you.

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Huh. The 6z GFS is a cold rain storm for the city south and east. We are plus 2 all the way to hour 120. Then the system deepens east of us.

Wrap around snows are rare. You want this well south of you.

Yea i wrote this wayyy wrong :lol: looked at the wrong mb map paul sorry that is a fail on my part just got to work and still asleep as you can tell from that god awful post :facepalm:

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Yea i wrote this wayyy wrong :lol: looked at the wrong mb map paul sorry that is a fail on my part just got to work and still asleep as you can tell from that god awful post :facepalm:

Its ok brother. Wasn't sure what you were seeing. Would b nice to a see 50 mile click south over 4 days.

He have some time.

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How did the EURO ensembles look?

The ensembles were good . The control is great for Albany. The euro ensembles still takes this thru the tenn valley off OBX then to the BM.

The control takes the center from Bekley to Boston. It's been the western most solution of all the guidance. But after seeing the 6z come a little further west this morning my fear is the control may be right if the system is that wound up

I really want to see the control come east and It hasn't in 5 days. Hopefully today.

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The ensembles were good . The control is great for Albany. The euro ensembles still takes this thru the tenn valley off OBX then to the BM.

The control takes the center from Bekley to Boston. It's been the western most solution of all the guidance. But after seeing the 6z come a little further west this morning my fear is the control may be right if the system is that wound up

I really want to see the control come east and It hasn't in 5 days. Hopefully today.

CMC (usually amped) and NAVGEM are south

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Goes neg tilt later than 6z so most of the precip is over when cold arrives behind storm.

In rain to snow situations we generally need a faster neg tilt or a strong closed low

at 500 mb to get more than a backend coating to slushy inch or two.

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Goes neg tilt later than 6z so most of the precip is over when cold arrives behind storm.

In rain to snow situations we generally need a faster neg tilt or a strong closed low

at 500 mb to get more than a backend coating to slushy inch or two.

The 12z GFS is actually a sloppy phase with a SW flow.

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We need that high to come down faster on the GFS . Too much phasing for my liking.

First of all - the flow is too progressive - there is no real blocking - so this storm should not be as intense as it has been modeled - it is all going to come down to the exact track of the storm and timing of the polar high coming down into southeast Canada - if the cold air can get into the region before the storms precip makes it into the region then the chances of frozen increase - BUT if the high and cold air arrives after the storm gets going there is going to be more liquid then frozen here - its as simple as that. We will not really get a good handle on this event until Monday when the storm comes ashore in the west and there is better sampling that will be fed into the models at that time 

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The air mass in front of this system is warm. This is trending towards the control run . Remember when u saw the euro ensembles 7 days out they look great because the spread in the members are Albany to a whiff

But now as you get closer you see the ensembles are a little more west at just day 5. Notice how the control hasn't moved.

This doesn't smell like snow to me here not even a little.

Sorry just my opinion boys.

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Its more about the position of the '50/50' low and high. Prior the 50/50 was more pronounced and further west and the high was more pronounced and further east with the combination really funneling cold air forcibly south. 

 

Last couple runs both are weaker / further apart and thusly the cold does not press as far. 

 

Still time to change though...

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