Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 It really shouldn't be all that surprising that the GFS Op could have a miss. There's been some sheared out solutions on the individual gfs ensemble members also over the last couple days.agreed plus we've seen this all too often this winter with the pv flexing its muscle and helping to shear out these waves. Gfs is likely wrong but with that said I'm not buying the amped up solutions at this time either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 It really shouldn't be all that surprising that the GFS Op could have a miss. There's been some sheared out solutions on the individual gfs ensemble members also over the last couple days. Exactly. Lots of people still don't understand ensemble modeling. They treat the ensemble mean with large spread like a discrete solution and then act surprised when the operational fails to display run to run consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 GEM much weaker too, as we can see it is way too early to tell. The GFS is all over the place the GEM just went way south after a few days of a crazy solution. The ECMWF so far has been the most consistent, let's see tonight's run. I say wait to a least Monday before we have any real idea about this potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 agreed plus we've seen this all too often this winter with the pv flexing its muscle and helping to shear out these waves. Gfs is likely wrong but with that said I'm not buying the amped up solutions at this time either. It's not really a PV problem here. The shortwave in the rockies that ejects out on the gfs has less amplitude compared to the 12z euro. Also, the northern shortwave that drops in on the euro that causes the storm to go to to town comes in way too late and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 There's an obvious western ridge flattening observable on the 00z and even the 18z gfs in the 3 to 4 day range. If that worsens, or remains steadfast, than the storm would be DOA. We need a stout ridge for the northern energy to dump in as sharply north-south as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The GEFS mean is significantly more amplified than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The GEFS mean is significantly more amplified than the OP Yep. Low exits off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yep. Low exits off the NJ coast. That was the 18z run of the GEFS. The low exits off Delmarva on the 0z run. Still more amplified than the 0z op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Lol It is funny that almost every long term threat has not worked out this year and our best storms popped up less than 3 day out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Lol It is funny that almost every long term threat has not worked out this year and our best storms popped up less than 3 day out The SE ridge has largely saved us while the +NAO and progressive flow has negated everything else, most of the storms have occurred when we have had the big ridge out west, when that has been M.I.A we have had no storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Lol It is funny that almost every long term threat has not worked out this year and our best storms popped up less than 3 day out Most of them, 2-13 was pretty well modeled five days out and there were even a few GGEM Mother of God runs 8-10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Worry. No one should ever worry about snow. That's a trivial thing in our lives. Well said, well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Amazing, another bomb incoming on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 This doesn't look as phased as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 This doesn't look as phased as 12z What hour we talking about here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yeah it's less phased for sure, crap. The first 87 hours looked fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Euro just took a big step away from a blockbuster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Slightly better than the 00z GFS. It split the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yeah it's less phased for sure, crap. The first 87 hours looked fine. It looked good until it held energy back like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Sub 992mb east of the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 It looked good until it held energy back like the gfs The Western ridge flattens out too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 QPF is still 1" plus most areas. It remains quite different than the GFS and reminds me of the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Agree that the whole solution plays out similarly to the 18z GFS. Funny how we were overwhelmed with joy at that run and distraught over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 QPF is still 1" plus most areas. It remains quite different than the GFS and reminds me of the 18z GFS. Yep my impression as well. GOOD Run... The boom was obviously doomed to disappear this run with the GGEM/GFS trends, doesnt mean it can't get a little better than this but still a solid run. 18z GFS more than likely, but just guessing as well. Still a few days to work on this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Models do have a tendency to lose a big storm in this time frame so it's something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 We've seen poor verification this year at days 4-6. I think we still have plenty of time to go. Energy won't be onshore till Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Aye, it's easy to lose sight of quite how far out in time this system remains. I'm game to track a moderate system, if that's what it comes down to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Most of them, 2-13 was pretty well modeled five days out and there were even a few GGEM Mother of God runs 8-10 days out. That was the only one of the 4"+ers we had..."most" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 That was the only one of the 4"+ers we had..."most" Yeah, virtually all of the light to mod events had little lead time as well. Funny how Jan 21st event, all the guidance showed zip zero, nothing at 72 hours out then 36 hours later they were hitting is with 6-12". Ended up with 14" here, it was my fav event this winter and I never would have never seen it coming if not for the likes of these boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Yeah, virtually all of the light to mod events had little lead time as well. Funny how Jan 21st event, all the guidance showed zip zero, nothing at 72 hours out then 36 hours later they were hitting is with 6-12". Ended up with 14" here, it was my fav event this winter and I never would have never seen it coming if not for the likes of these boards. Yea That was awesome. My fav was the 50dbz storm. Giant flakes and constant lightning for 20 min before the change over, never saw anything like that. (although a few days later we had another convective storm which was really good as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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