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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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It really shouldn't be all that surprising that the GFS Op could have a miss. There's been some sheared out solutions on the individual gfs ensemble members also over the last couple days.

agreed plus we've seen this all too often this winter with the pv flexing its muscle and helping to shear out these waves. Gfs is likely wrong but with that said I'm not buying the amped up solutions at this time either.
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It really shouldn't be all that surprising that the GFS Op could have a miss.  There's been some sheared out solutions on the individual gfs ensemble members also over the last couple days.  

Exactly.  Lots of people still don't understand ensemble modeling.  They treat the ensemble mean with large spread like a discrete solution and then act surprised when the operational fails to display run to run consistency.

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GEM much weaker too, as we can see it is way too early to tell. The GFS is all over the place the GEM just went way south after a few days of a crazy solution. The ECMWF so far has been the most consistent, let's see tonight's run. I say wait to a least Monday before we have any real idea about this potential storm.

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agreed plus we've seen this all too often this winter with the pv flexing its muscle and helping to shear out these waves. Gfs is likely wrong but with that said I'm not buying the amped up solutions at this time either.

It's not really a PV problem here.  The shortwave in the rockies that ejects out on the gfs has less amplitude compared to the 12z euro.  Also, the northern shortwave that drops in on the euro that causes the storm to go to to town comes in way too late and east.  

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Lol It is funny that almost every long term threat has not worked out this year and our best storms popped up less than 3 day out

The SE ridge has largely saved us while the +NAO and progressive flow has negated everything else, most of the storms have occurred when we have had the big ridge out west, when that has been M.I.A we have had no storms

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QPF is still 1" plus most areas. It remains quite different than the GFS and reminds me of the 18z GFS.

Yep my impression as well. GOOD Run... The boom was obviously doomed to disappear this run with the GGEM/GFS trends, doesnt mean it can't get a little better than this but still a solid run.

18z GFS more than likely, but just guessing as well. Still a few days to work on this thing.

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That was the only one of the 4"+ers we had..."most"

Yeah, virtually all of the light to mod events had little lead time as well. Funny how Jan 21st event, all the guidance showed zip zero, nothing at 72 hours out then 36 hours later they were hitting is with 6-12". Ended up with 14" here, it was my fav event this winter and I never would have never seen it coming if not for the likes of these boards.

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Yeah, virtually all of the light to mod events had little lead time as well. Funny how Jan 21st event, all the guidance showed zip zero, nothing at 72 hours out then 36 hours later they were hitting is with 6-12". Ended up with 14" here, it was my fav event this winter and I never would have never seen it coming if not for the likes of these boards.

Yea That was awesome. My fav was the 50dbz storm. Giant flakes and constant lightning for 20 min before the change over, never saw anything like that. (although a few days later we had another convective storm which was really good as well)

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