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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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This run verbatim would be a potentially historic last season snowstorm for Western PA and NY and then up into much of Northern and Central New England. Sub 988mb low over Washington DC and then over NYC. It's probably going to show a lot of back end snows for this area as well.

It's not rain for the area. It's a lot of Ice. Surface temps are near or below freezing for a lot of this storm.

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I'm excited that all the models show a big storm. This might be legit.

The 12z GFS seems underwhelming, to say the least.

 

I love the look of this storm on the Euro. Big honkin' low with a ton of precip. The Euro has shown plenty of killer solutions over the past three weeks, though, so I'm really not comfortable biting yet.

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12 Z ECM @ 180 hrs has a low over the Central TN/KY border. This is a little warmer then last nights solution so far..
186 hours the low is over E TN 
192 hours the low is over W VA..

This is a driving ice event across E PA with temps in the upper 20s at 192...

198 the low is over Southern MD with temperatures in the lower 30s ..(above freezing however) ..

204 the low is over E NJ with heavy QPF still in the area .. temperatures in the low to mid 30s ..

So this verbatim is a icing scenario inland to a rain event and rain event along the coast..

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Nice read though from the New England forum about next week. The teleconnections as of today look to be really lining up. A strongly positive PNA with a deep phase 8 on the MJO and the NAO dives from +2 to neutral.

Still doesn't mean it will happen and even if it does wouldn't favor frozen over rain. I'd say we have a 30% chance of a major storm but only a 10-15% chance of a mostly frozen event as of today.

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12 Z ECM @ 180 hrs has a low over the Central TN/KY border. This is a little warmer then last nights solution so far..[/size]

186 hours the low is over E TN [/size]

192 hours the low is over W VA..[/size]

This is a driving ice event across E PA with temps in the upper 20s at 192...[/size]

198 the low is over Southern MD with temperatures in the lower 30s ..(above freezing however) ..

204 the low is over E NJ with heavy QPF still in the area .. temperatures in the low to mid 30s ..

So this verbatim is a icing scenario inland to a rain event and rain event along the coast..[/size]

Very nice roundup of what the euro shows. Thanks

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12 Z ECM @ 180 hrs has a low over the Central TN/KY border. This is a little warmer then last nights solution so far..

186 hours the low is over E TN 

192 hours the low is over W VA..

This is a driving ice event across E PA with temps in the upper 20s at 192...

198 the low is over Southern MD with temperatures in the lower 30s ..(above freezing however) ..

204 the low is over E NJ with heavy QPF still in the area .. temperatures in the low to mid 30s ..

So this verbatim is a icing scenario inland to a rain event and rain event along the coast..

 

 

NYC is in the 20s for this whole event and then dry slot.

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We'll need the PV in the right spot to prevent it charging up the Appalachians or going out to sea again. Lots has to line up for a winter event around the area.

 

 

Looks like a classic WAA/Over-running event, at the least, if the Euro and GGEM are correct.

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I am using the High Res ECM not the low res and NYC gets above freezing...

 

NYC does not get above freezing until the dry slot.

6 hours previous precip, current temps.

 

At least 90% of the precip is snow, mostly Ice and then a huge dry slot.

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NYC does not get above freezing until the dry slot.

6 hours previous precip, current temps.

 

27 degrees at the start and after .65" of precip falls, still 30.5 degrees.

After this, the temps jump to 35 degrees in the dry slot.

There is no dry slot until 198 hrs and then heavier precipitation moves back in. Like i said I have the high resolution details and to argue over something this far out is ludicrous . If they were not pay images I would post them but am not allowed!

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Are you kidding me with arguing about temps 8-9 days out. Last week we thought the past storm would be too far north and look what happened. These details are worthless right now.

They are basically reading different information, and think both of them know that. They are just comparing...

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The Euro ensemble mean generally looks faster than the OP with quite a bit

of spread leading to a baggy look to the surface pressure mean. It could be

a result of the trough taking more time to amplify so the track would be to the

east of the really amped OP run on this cycle. But it did come west from 0z.

 

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