MJO812 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 We need the PV to be a little further south.Way far out to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 If the cold was a bit faster or the storm a bit slower this would of been a HECS on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Storm out west was a bit faster than the 00z EURO so the HP was a bit delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Yeah it's rain for the immediate coastal plain but it's a blockbuster long duration event, and this won't be the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Meh I'll check this early next week. If I had a nickel every time the words HECS or blockbuster have been used this winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Meh I'll check this early next week. I'm excited that all the models show a big storm. This might be legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 This run verbatim would be a potentially historic last season snowstorm for Western PA and NY and then up into much of Northern and Central New England. Sub 988mb low over Washington DC and then over NYC. It's probably going to show a lot of back end snows for this area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I'm excited that all the models show a big storm. This might be legit. Just want a long duration event, something longer than 24 hours, even if it's all or mostly rain. Could be a wind producer too. Still love my March 2010 analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 This run verbatim would be a potentially historic last season snowstorm for Western PA and NY and then up into much of Northern and Central New England. Sub 988mb low over Washington DC and then over NYC. It's probably going to show a lot of back end snows for this area as well. It's not rain for the area. It's a lot of Ice. Surface temps are near or below freezing for a lot of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 It's not rain for the area. It's a lot of Ice. Surface temps are near or below freezing for a lot of this storm. I didn't look that closely, but with a quick glance that is correct, 90% ice west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I'm excited that all the models show a big storm. This might be legit. The 12z GFS seems underwhelming, to say the least. I love the look of this storm on the Euro. Big honkin' low with a ton of precip. The Euro has shown plenty of killer solutions over the past three weeks, though, so I'm really not comfortable biting yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 A long duration cold rain event would be very miserable. Something historic like April 2007 or March 2010 is interesting but not just a cold 1-2" rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 12 Z ECM @ 180 hrs has a low over the Central TN/KY border. This is a little warmer then last nights solution so far..186 hours the low is over E TN 192 hours the low is over W VA..This is a driving ice event across E PA with temps in the upper 20s at 192...198 the low is over Southern MD with temperatures in the lower 30s ..(above freezing however) ..204 the low is over E NJ with heavy QPF still in the area .. temperatures in the low to mid 30s ..So this verbatim is a icing scenario inland to a rain event and rain event along the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I've seen this movie before.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 We're at day 7/8 at this point, at least it's not day 10. Something to watch of course, but the run will certainly change for the better or for the worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Nice read though from the New England forum about next week. The teleconnections as of today look to be really lining up. A strongly positive PNA with a deep phase 8 on the MJO and the NAO dives from +2 to neutral. Still doesn't mean it will happen and even if it does wouldn't favor frozen over rain. I'd say we have a 30% chance of a major storm but only a 10-15% chance of a mostly frozen event as of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 We'll need the PV in the right spot to prevent it charging up the Appalachians or going out to sea again. Lots has to line up for a winter event around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 12 Z ECM @ 180 hrs has a low over the Central TN/KY border. This is a little warmer then last nights solution so far..[/size] 186 hours the low is over E TN [/size] 192 hours the low is over W VA..[/size] This is a driving ice event across E PA with temps in the upper 20s at 192...[/size] 198 the low is over Southern MD with temperatures in the lower 30s ..(above freezing however) .. 204 the low is over E NJ with heavy QPF still in the area .. temperatures in the low to mid 30s .. So this verbatim is a icing scenario inland to a rain event and rain event along the coast..[/size] Very nice roundup of what the euro shows. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 12 Z ECM @ 180 hrs has a low over the Central TN/KY border. This is a little warmer then last nights solution so far.. 186 hours the low is over E TN 192 hours the low is over W VA.. This is a driving ice event across E PA with temps in the upper 20s at 192... 198 the low is over Southern MD with temperatures in the lower 30s ..(above freezing however) .. 204 the low is over E NJ with heavy QPF still in the area .. temperatures in the low to mid 30s .. So this verbatim is a icing scenario inland to a rain event and rain event along the coast.. NYC is in the 20s for this whole event and then dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 We'll need the PV in the right spot to prevent it charging up the Appalachians or going out to sea again. Lots has to line up for a winter event around the area. Looks like a classic WAA/Over-running event, at the least, if the Euro and GGEM are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 NYC is in the 20s for this whole event and then dry slot. I am using the High Res ECM not the low res and NYC gets above freezing... 186 & 192 they are right at 33 degrees...even inland gets up to the lower 30s in the 33-34 range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I am using the High Res ECM not the low res and NYC gets above freezing... NYC does not get above freezing until the dry slot. 6 hours previous precip, current temps. At least 90% of the precip is snow, mostly Ice and then a huge dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 NYC does not get above freezing until the dry slot. 6 hours previous precip, current temps. 27 degrees at the start and after .65" of precip falls, still 30.5 degrees. After this, the temps jump to 35 degrees in the dry slot. There is no dry slot until 198 hrs and then heavier precipitation moves back in. Like i said I have the high resolution details and to argue over something this far out is ludicrous . If they were not pay images I would post them but am not allowed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Are you kidding me with arguing about temps 8-9 days out. Last week we thought the past storm would be too far north and look what happened. These details are worthless right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Euro is mostly frozen from NYC west.It is not until the end where it gets warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 We'll need the PV in the right spot to prevent it charging up the Appalachians or going out to sea again. Lots has to line up for a winter event around the area. Neg epo : check Pos pna : check Favorable mjo : check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 It is good to see a lot of meteorologists on here barking about the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Are you kidding me with arguing about temps 8-9 days out. Last week we thought the past storm would be too far north and look what happened. These details are worthless right now. They are basically reading different information, and think both of them know that. They are just comparing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean generally looks faster than the OP with quite a bit of spread leading to a baggy look to the surface pressure mean. It could be a result of the trough taking more time to amplify so the track would be to the east of the really amped OP run on this cycle. But it did come west from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 12z JMA is a bomb, sub 976mb over Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.