Yanksfan Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 If we are able to pick up some snow if it changes over then that's a huge win for me. I don't care if NW areas jackpot, but I do hope it trends towards a very powerful system. I second that notion. I'll take my chances with a phased system; not sure if a triple phaser is still on the table. A potentially dynamic storm- high risk high reward type deal. If it doesn't produce significant snows so be it. We had a very good season regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 18z DGEXWoof, what a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I second that notion. I'll take my chances with a phased system; not sure if a triple phaser is still on the table. A potentially dynamic storm- high risk high reward type deal. If it doesn't produce significant snows so be it. We had a very good season regardless. I wouldn't worry about achieving a triple phaser; there's nothing to inherently limit a mere "double-phased" low from becoming as powerful as its mystical triple-phased counterpart. I think things like timing and location of any phasing and the properties of the respective pieces of energy are more important than the number of vorts that phase in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Woof, what a beast.Do you have a paying job? How you spend do much time here makes you a lucky man. GFS caving to the Euro at this juncture is certainly promising. You just can't help feeling reluctant for excitement after last weeks debacle, regardless of how they are related. I would want to be WELL North and West to feel comfortable for snow on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I hate to say it but I really think this is going to cut way west. The trend has been to weaken the PV in eastern Canada, and with the NAO dropping off into the event towards neutral, I'd be surprised if we all don't end up on the warm side of this. I hope I'm wrong, but again that's just my prediction at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Do you have a paying job? How you spend do much time here makes you a lucky man. GFS caving to the Euro at this juncture is certainly promising. You just can't help feeling reluctant for excitement after last weeks debacle, regardless of how they are related. I would want to be WELL North and West to feel comfortable for snow on this one... Luckily I work for a company with a very relaxed internet policy. It also helps that I have a private office. That being said I work while I post and if I'm busy I post less. The Euro comes out right as my lunch hour ends. I'm obsessed with weather. People say I missed my calling and should have went to college for meteorology instead. We'll see what 00z has to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I hate to say it but I really think this is going to cut way west. The trend has been to weaken the PV in eastern Canada, and with the NAO dropping off into the event towards neutral, I'd be surprised if we all don't end up on the warm side of this. I hope I'm wrong, but again that's just my prediction at this point. Anything can happen. Is this a solution on any of the guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Do not underestimate the PV, we've learned that the hard way. Maybe it's a good thing this thing is so far north right now so we will jackpot instead of Virginia lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 this loop sponsored by the letter V http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=n_pacific-vis-12 whirling and twirling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 this loop sponsored by the letter V I don't get it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I don't get it... V as in Vortices how many can you count in that loop I count five ... do you think the models can sort them all out???? http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/hemi/index.php?type=n_pacific-vis-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Anything can happen. Is this a solution on any of the guidance? Meteorology is more than just looking at model output. And I said it was my prediction, not what would absolutely happen. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 I hate to say it but I really think this is going to cut way west. The trend has been to weaken the PV in eastern Canada, and with the NAO dropping off into the event towards neutral, I'd be surprised if we all don't end up on the warm side of this. I hope I'm wrong, but again that's just my prediction at this point. it isn't going to cut into the fresh arctic high that is just arriving in southeast canada prior to the arrival of the storm which has to cut underneath the high - the upper level winds also will guide the storm south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 it isn't going to cut into the fresh arctic high that is just arriving in southeast canada prior to the arrival of the storm which has to cut underneath the high - the upper level winds also will guide the storm south of us If the trough goes neg early it cuts ala euro control . Fresh air mass or not What we need is a pos tilted trough all the way to the app then it will come under the confluence. It will all come down to where does it deepen is it in the tenn valley ? Or once east of the mountains. ? Models not there yet. But we are getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 it isn't going to cut into the fresh arctic high that is just arriving in southeast canada prior to the arrival of the storm which has to cut underneath the high - the upper level winds also will guide the storm south of us Right. That is of course if h500 at the time of the event looks like what the 18z gfs depicts today. I'm saying that I expect the Arctic high to trend weaker over time. Not to mention the GFS bias of being too far south and east with these events at this range, should be enough to warrant significant caution on a cold/wintry solution for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 GFS, EC, and CMC ensembles still show a large spread, even though their means have converged. Very low confidence setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 18Z GFS runs do not hold much meaning, the 12Z and 00Z are much better, look at last Sunday's 06Z runs they were totally bogas. That is why I think the 6 an 18 runs account for very little in my forecasting sceame. Now the ECMWF holds a lot and the 12Z run has NYC right on the edge of a blizzard. A shift of 25 miles south of that run NYC gets it. Needless to say I will not even try to forecast snow amount until Monday or Tuesday at the earliest. I can all ready see this is a touch and go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Idk honestly not expecting much. I usually tell everyone about any incoming storms but I'm not even going to bother with this unless it's like 24 hrs before and we are guaranteed a hit. Got burned big time last storm when I said we are going to get 8-12" of snow only to receive a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 From 12z to 18z... much stronger and dynamic 12z on top 18z on bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Meteorology is more than just looking at model output. And I said it was my prediction, not what would absolutely happen. Thanks. You read too much into what was just a simple question from me. Just wanted to know if there was any model solution so far going with your prediction, as I have fallen behind on latest guidance output. I was not questioning or doubting your prediction, which is why I said that yes, anything can happen. I know the difference between modelogy and meteorology. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_atlantic_129_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif lets not lose sight of the Atlantic Ridge in the model pbp this system should not be able to slide harmlessly out to sea with the ridge as modeled on the GFS atm (red highlight) we must be careful with how we perceive the end game http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_atlantic_129_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif thanks for the positive feedback from a few of the crew I like to keep my posting fun and interesting to read the attempt at humor will drop off... as crunch time approaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 gfs-a.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_atlantic_129_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif lets not lose sight of the Atlantic Ridge in the model pbp this system should not be able to slide harmlessly out to sea with the ridge as modeled on the GFS atm (red highlight) we must be careful with how we perceive the end game http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_atlantic_129_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif thanks for the positive feedback from some of the crew members I like to keep my post fun and interesting to read the attempt at humor will drop off... as crunch time approaches While thats an excellent point both camps (GFS) and (Euro) arent showing an OTS solution so that much is clear. a tthis point, looking at rain to SN+ or slop to a few inches - with an MECS a possibility if the Euro solution slides south by 25-50 miles. to say th least interesting options on table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 gfs-a.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_atlantic_129_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif lets not lose sight of the Atlantic Ridge in the model pbp this system should not be able to slide harmlessly out to sea with the ridge as modeled on the GFS atm (red highlight) we must be careful with how we perceive the end game http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_atlantic_129_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif thanks for the positive feedback from a few of the crew I like to keep my posting fun and interesting to read the attempt at humor will drop off... as crunch time approaches You're recent posts have been really great I'm worried the ridge is under modeled. It's easier for hugging and cutting this time of year. Personally I think this is a well inland storm 200 plus miles n and w of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 On the models, what's the timing they want it to start snowing..Tuesday njght into Wedneday or Wednesday into Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 On the models, what's the timing they want it to start snowing..Tuesday njght into Wedneday or Wednesday into Thursday? The latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 On the models, what's the timing they want it to start snowing..Tuesday njght into Wedneday or Wednesday into Thursday? Wed Night 8:00 pm EDT approx http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f144_ussm.gif Daylight Saving Time (United States) 2014 begins at 2:00 AM on Sunday, March 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 gfs-a.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_atlantic_129_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif lets not lose sight of the Atlantic Ridge in the model pbp this system should not be able to slide harmlessly out to sea with the ridge as modeled on the GFS atm (red highlight) we must be careful with how we perceive the end game http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_atlantic_129_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif thanks for the positive feedback from a few of the crew I like to keep my posting fun and interesting to read the attempt at humor will drop off... as crunch time approaches Great point. You got me looking to the left and to the right of where i normally focus my attention. Seeing things with a fresh perspective...great posts in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Wed Night 8:00 pm EDT approx prec_f144_ussm.gif http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f144_ussm.gif Daylight Saving Time (United States) 2014 begins at 2:00 AM on Sunday, March 9 Heyyyy... I remember you from Accuwx! Keep up the great posts man! I've been waiting for your reappearance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Heyyyy... I remember you from Accuwx! Keep up the great posts man! I've been waiting for your reappearance +1, was one of my favorite posters over there...Especially during cane' season. Glad to see you around DM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 Still plenty of time left, when are the players gonna be on the field? Maybe we can finally get some nice winds as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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