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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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Compare the way it handled the energy out west to it's own run at 12z. Quite large differences.

 

Like I said, it's not quite ready yet to fully move towards a stronger system.

 

Agree that it's different then the 12z run, but just pointing out that it's no euro.

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It's going to end up as a nice run because you still have the northern stream dropping and a bit more energy being ejected eastward than prior runs. What a volatile situation.

 

All I will say is that the GFS was making the mistake of ejecting the western energy too sporadically last week.

 

In reality it verified more consolidated. That might be the case again here.

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While I agree that climo considerations may be overrated, I believe "seasonal trends" as they are discussed on here are relative to model performance.  Models each have biases, and as a result of updates/upgrades, those biases will change through time.  Thus, the "seasonal trend" of storms to "come NW" is relative to the output of certain models at certain points in time.  I believe that to be noteworthy.  In fact, local met offices would seem to agree as I frequently see "trends" relative to "model output" discussed in AFD's for a given season.

 

 

Yes, that I would agree with. 

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Nice step towards a colder and more amped up solution like the EURO but im going to hold off any excitement for a powerful coastal storm until 12z sunday. Feel that no matter what the coast is going to be taint/rain and inland areas are going to jackpot from this system

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