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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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The question is, in the last 6 wks, who has caved to who more often:  GFS to Euro, or vice versa?  Wasnt the GFS the first to sniff out the swing and a miss potential with the last one that ran to dc instead of up here?

They both starting bailing at the same time (12z Friday)

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They both starting bailing at the same time (12z Friday)

Well the Euro was further south most of the time before the 00z Friday morning run where it came north in line with the GFS showing 12"+ consistently.. minus that run though the Euro handled last system pretty well IMO... Either way the European was extremely impressive with the Thanksgiving storm (GFS constantly OTS) and the storm earlier this month where the GFS was constantly too far east and dry. FWIW though, each storm is different.

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The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean supports the op. Not ignoring temperature profiles but not worrying about them either.

at this point, temperature profiles can be largely ignored IMO. At this point, I would look at placement and dynamics which will come into play.
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Is it so hard to make posts not specifically about storm discussion (like whether people will be crying about the rain/snow line or who was right vs wrong, etc) in the banter thread? I just had to delete a bunch of posts, again, and I'm not that strict of a moderator.

Dsnow would love to hear your thoughts on this storm being you havent posted here much lately.

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Nice shift south on the ensembles.

The Euro Control is West  but the 12z JMA is much further east than yesterday at 12z .  The Euro is most amped  and furthest west of all the models .

If it wasn`t the Euro I would punt it , but I cant yet .

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The Euro Control is West but the 12z JMA is much further east than yesterday at 12z . The Euro is most amped and furthest west of all the models .

If it wasn`t the Euro I would punt it , but I cant yet .

The Euro has been tooo amped all winter, although with the pna rising, who knows.

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Dsnow would love to hear your thoughts on this storm being you havent posted here much lately.

 

1) Seasonal trends and climo are very overrated, as we saw with the last storm. What happened with the last storm does not affect this storm. What happened 30 years ago doesn't affect this storm. The current pattern is what affects this storm. 

2) The Polar Vortex is much further north this time around, and isn't what would ultimately suppress the storm. It all comes down to how much energy from out west ejects. If more ejects eastward, it will phase with the northern stream energy diving down, and we'll have a monster. If too much gets held back, we won't. 

3) If there is no phase, it's pretty much only a northern stream event digging relatively far east, and will not have time to produce a monster on its own. This is definitely a viable solution. If the PV were stronger and further southwest (say, if we had better blocking), the chances of a phase would go up, as the energy would dive in further west. 

4) The Euro does look suspiciously meridional in between hours 114 and 120. I don't see a true mechanism to force the energy due north to south like that. We're relying on a phase to do this, but there isn't necessarily anything that is forcing a phase. 

5) That being said, the pattern does seem progressive enough to let energy from the west ejecting to the east, which would create a phase. I just think this phase could be delayed and/or further east. 

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Dsnowx53

 

Point #1 in your post is so true.  I don't see why so many people think climo is going to effect a current synoptic setup.

 

 

I don't get it either. It's been a pet peeve of mine for years. Just like with this past Monday -- climatology won't magically turn a storm north if the Polar Vortex is monstrous and oriented like that. 

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Dsnowx53

 

Point #1 in your post is so true.  I don't see why so many people think climo is going to effect a current synoptic setup.

 

While I agree that climo considerations may be overrated, I believe "seasonal trends" as they are discussed on here are relative to model performance.  Models each have biases, and as a result of updates/upgrades, those biases will change through time.  Thus, the "seasonal trend" of storms to "come NW" is relative to the output of certain models at certain points in time.  I believe that to be noteworthy.  In fact, local met offices would seem to agree as I frequently see "trends" relative to "model output" discussed in AFD's for a given season.

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For those on this forum implying Euro will be discounted by UPTON think again : - it is NOT:

THE GFS WHILE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED TODAY...STILL TAKES
A FLATTER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED INTO THU...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS EVEN SLOWER AND STRONGER. THE LARGEST DIFFERENCES COME WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A 983 MB JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
LI
...WITH THE GFS PHASING LATER AND MUCH FARTHER OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THU. BOTH TRACKS SUPPORT SOME WINTRY WEATHER PCPN
ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE TIME WILL PLAY IT SAFE WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WED....TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THERE IS A POLAR HIGH TO THE NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA FOR A COLD AIR SUPPLY AT AROUND 1025 MB. TRACK IS
ALWAYS CRITICAL HERE. ONCE AGAIN...IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

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For those on this forum implying Euro will be discounted by UPTON think again : - it is NOT:

THE GFS WHILE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED TODAY...STILL TAKES

A FLATTER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED INTO THU...WHILE THE

ECMWF IS EVEN SLOWER AND STRONGER. THE LARGEST DIFFERENCES COME WED

NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A 983 MB JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF

LI...WITH THE GFS PHASING LATER AND MUCH FARTHER OFF THE MID

ATLANTIC COAST THU. BOTH TRACKS SUPPORT SOME WINTRY WEATHER PCPN

ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE TIME WILL PLAY IT SAFE WITH A

RAIN/SNOW MIX WED....TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE

WED NIGHT INTO THU. THERE IS A POLAR HIGH TO THE NORTH ACROSS

EASTERN CANADA FOR A COLD AIR SUPPLY AT AROUND 1025 MB. TRACK IS

ALWAYS CRITICAL HERE. ONCE AGAIN...IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC

DETAILS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A

SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

 

That last sentence sums it up perfectly... anything can happen.

 

Like Yanksfan, I would prefer a phased low than have a sheared, boring low. You run the risk

 

with a phased storm in March, but the rewards can be greater. Also, phased storms are more fun  :)

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It's really not even close to the euro at hour 102.

Difference with the 12z run so far though hour 102 has a little more interaction with the midwest vort and a bit stronger pac vort.

 

Heights in the east are slightly higher.

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It's really not even close to the euro at hour 102.

Difference with the 12z run so far though hour 102 is a little more interaction with the midwest vort and a bit stronger pac vort.

 

Heights in the east are slightly higher.

Compare the way it handled the energy out west to it's own run at 12z. Quite large differences.

 

Like I said, it's not quite ready yet to fully move towards a stronger system.

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