IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 what was the path on the previous 0z ensembles? The 00z Euro ensemble mean tracked the low right on top of us. This run is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 what was the path on the previous 0z ensembles? Into sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The 00z Euro ensemble mean tracked the low right on top of us. This run is further south. That's some good news then. Although I'm a bit concerned that no other model is anything like the euro for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 That's some good news then. Although I'm a bit concerned that no other model is anything like the euro for this storm The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean supports the op. Not ignoring temperature profiles but not worrying about them either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The question is, in the last 6 wks, who has caved to who more often: GFS to Euro, or vice versa? Wasnt the GFS the first to sniff out the swing and a miss potential with the last one that ran to dc instead of up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The question is, in the last 6 wks, who has caved to who more often: GFS to Euro, or vice versa? Wasnt the GFS the first to sniff out the swing and a miss potential with the last one that ran to dc instead of up here? They both starting bailing at the same time (12z Friday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 They both starting bailing at the same time (12z Friday) Well the Euro was further south most of the time before the 00z Friday morning run where it came north in line with the GFS showing 12"+ consistently.. minus that run though the Euro handled last system pretty well IMO... Either way the European was extremely impressive with the Thanksgiving storm (GFS constantly OTS) and the storm earlier this month where the GFS was constantly too far east and dry. FWIW though, each storm is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean supports the op. Not ignoring temperature profiles but not worrying about them either.at this point, temperature profiles can be largely ignored IMO. At this point, I would look at placement and dynamics which will come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Is it so hard to make posts not specifically about storm discussion (like whether people will be crying about the rain/snow line or who was right vs wrong, etc) in the banter thread? I just had to delete a bunch of posts, again, and I'm not that strict of a moderator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Is it so hard to make posts not specifically about storm discussion (like whether people will be crying about the rain/snow line or who was right vs wrong, etc) in the banter thread? I just had to delete a bunch of posts, again, and I'm not that strict of a moderator. Dsnow would love to hear your thoughts on this storm being you havent posted here much lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 i wouldnt call it a south trend on ensembles, they have been coming in south of the OP all winter, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Nice shift south on the ensembles. The Euro Control is West but the 12z JMA is much further east than yesterday at 12z . The Euro is most amped and furthest west of all the models . If it wasn`t the Euro I would punt it , but I cant yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The Euro Control is West but the 12z JMA is much further east than yesterday at 12z . The Euro is most amped and furthest west of all the models . If it wasn`t the Euro I would punt it , but I cant yet . The Euro has been tooo amped all winter, although with the pna rising, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 JMA is nearly identical to the GFS/UKMET/GEFSmean/NAVGEM with precip and placement/strength. Euro is a tremendous outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Dsnow would love to hear your thoughts on this storm being you havent posted here much lately. 1) Seasonal trends and climo are very overrated, as we saw with the last storm. What happened with the last storm does not affect this storm. What happened 30 years ago doesn't affect this storm. The current pattern is what affects this storm. 2) The Polar Vortex is much further north this time around, and isn't what would ultimately suppress the storm. It all comes down to how much energy from out west ejects. If more ejects eastward, it will phase with the northern stream energy diving down, and we'll have a monster. If too much gets held back, we won't. 3) If there is no phase, it's pretty much only a northern stream event digging relatively far east, and will not have time to produce a monster on its own. This is definitely a viable solution. If the PV were stronger and further southwest (say, if we had better blocking), the chances of a phase would go up, as the energy would dive in further west. 4) The Euro does look suspiciously meridional in between hours 114 and 120. I don't see a true mechanism to force the energy due north to south like that. We're relying on a phase to do this, but there isn't necessarily anything that is forcing a phase. 5) That being said, the pattern does seem progressive enough to let energy from the west ejecting to the east, which would create a phase. I just think this phase could be delayed and/or further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 JMA is nearly identical to the GFS with precip and placement/strength. Euro is a tremendous outlier. Very close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The 12z Euro ensemble mean has more energy hanging back SW than the 0z run did. With ridge collapsing east some extent.This is also on the 12z GEFS out 120hr. The PV further south, keeps the East coast heights bit suppressed on GEFS though.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Dsnowx53 Point #1 in your post is so true. I don't see why so many people think climo is going to effect a current synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Dsnowx53 Point #1 in your post is so true. I don't see why so many people think climo is going to effect a current synoptic setup. I don't get it either. It's been a pet peeve of mine for years. Just like with this past Monday -- climatology won't magically turn a storm north if the Polar Vortex is monstrous and oriented like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 HPC's updated outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Dsnowx53 Point #1 in your post is so true. I don't see why so many people think climo is going to effect a current synoptic setup. While I agree that climo considerations may be overrated, I believe "seasonal trends" as they are discussed on here are relative to model performance. Models each have biases, and as a result of updates/upgrades, those biases will change through time. Thus, the "seasonal trend" of storms to "come NW" is relative to the output of certain models at certain points in time. I believe that to be noteworthy. In fact, local met offices would seem to agree as I frequently see "trends" relative to "model output" discussed in AFD's for a given season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 For those on this forum implying Euro will be discounted by UPTON think again : - it is NOT: THE GFS WHILE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED TODAY...STILL TAKESA FLATTER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED INTO THU...WHILE THEECMWF IS EVEN SLOWER AND STRONGER. THE LARGEST DIFFERENCES COME WEDNIGHT INTO THU WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A 983 MB JUST SOUTH AND EAST OFLI...WITH THE GFS PHASING LATER AND MUCH FARTHER OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST THU. BOTH TRACKS SUPPORT SOME WINTRY WEATHER PCPNACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE TIME WILL PLAY IT SAFE WITH ARAIN/SNOW MIX WED....TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW ON THE BACKSIDEWED NIGHT INTO THU. THERE IS A POLAR HIGH TO THE NORTH ACROSSEASTERN CANADA FOR A COLD AIR SUPPLY AT AROUND 1025 MB. TRACK ISALWAYS CRITICAL HERE. ONCE AGAIN...IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICDETAILS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ASIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 For those on this forum implying Euro will be discounted by UPTON think again : - it is NOT: THE GFS WHILE SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED TODAY...STILL TAKES A FLATTER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WED INTO THU...WHILE THE ECMWF IS EVEN SLOWER AND STRONGER. THE LARGEST DIFFERENCES COME WED NIGHT INTO THU WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A 983 MB JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LI...WITH THE GFS PHASING LATER AND MUCH FARTHER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU. BOTH TRACKS SUPPORT SOME WINTRY WEATHER PCPN ACROSS THE REGION AND FOR THE TIME WILL PLAY IT SAFE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX WED....TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THERE IS A POLAR HIGH TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA FOR A COLD AIR SUPPLY AT AROUND 1025 MB. TRACK IS ALWAYS CRITICAL HERE. ONCE AGAIN...IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT. That last sentence sums it up perfectly... anything can happen. Like Yanksfan, I would prefer a phased low than have a sheared, boring low. You run the risk with a phased storm in March, but the rewards can be greater. Also, phased storms are more fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Through hour 81 the GFS is definitely a tad stronger and sharper with the energy crossing into the Pacific northwest. That's a key development. Let's see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Starting to see huge differences at H5 as compared to 12z. Huge trend towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The differences between this run and 12z are worthy. I don't think it's ready to show a Euro esque solution yet, but the beginnings of a cave for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Can you elaborate more than just a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 It's still going to leave too much energy behind out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 It's really not even close to the euro at hour 102. Difference with the 12z run so far though hour 102 has a little more interaction with the midwest vort and a bit stronger pac vort. Heights in the east are slightly higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 It's really not even close to the euro at hour 102. Difference with the 12z run so far though hour 102 is a little more interaction with the midwest vort and a bit stronger pac vort. Heights in the east are slightly higher. Compare the way it handled the energy out west to it's own run at 12z. Quite large differences. Like I said, it's not quite ready yet to fully move towards a stronger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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