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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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This is actually a rare case that if we had a -NAO this storm would end up going more inland...12/25/02 was another example of a storm hurt by a -NAO

That storm was nice for the area. We actually got a surprise. I received 5 inches of snow after the rain in the afternoon. My forecast never had a changeover to snow.

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I hope the Euro verifies even if we get mostly rain. Would love a big bomb of a system.

QPF is 1.00" to as much as 1.50" + in spots.

 

It's the dynamic system we need and are looking for. It would probably flip to heavy snow no later than half way through all the way to the coast. Central and Southern NJ are a bit of a different story.

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Why not? This looks like the classic case of 6" in the valley and 24" in Hewitt. H5 has similarities.

The entire setup is further north now than 2/25/10 and there was a closed low over the upper Midwest which phased into it a STJ wave, which blew up the low near eastern Long Island. This likely would not have a similar outcome. This looks like a deep open trough which phases a STJ impulse in and progressively heads east.

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QPF is 1.00" to as much as 1.50" + in spots.

 

It's the dynamic system we need and are looking for. It would probably flip to heavy snow no later than half way through all the way to the coast. Central and Southern NJ are a bit of a different story.

 

Generally in these events NYC/LI changeover about the time the surface winds kicks to 030-040 or more NW and or when the system closes off from 500-850

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Agreed, you have a bombing dynamic system.

 

How anyone could not root for this outcome at H5 similar to this is puzzling.

In total agreement with you: High risk- high reward for ALL in this bombiung  & dynamic H5 scenario. just becomes a question of track with this kind of phase.

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That storm was nice for the area. We actually got a surprise. I received 5 inches of snow after the rain in the afternoon. My forecast never had a changeover to snow.

That day I had dime sized hail with booming thunder and crazy lightning. Then it quickly flipped to heavy snow. Was probably just the right set of circumstances with shallow cold air and good updrafts within the convection.

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QPF is 1.00" to as much as 1.50" + in spots.

 

It's the dynamic system we need and are looking for. It would probably flip to heavy snow no later than half way through all the way to the coast. Central and Southern NJ are a bit of a different story.

There's nothing like a nice windy and cold rainstorm for mid March, looks great. 

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more then likely the Euro solution is too extreme and will be dismissed by most forecasters later today and the GFS will also be discounted because it is too flat so a compromise between the two will be  the way to go for now ... if there is a compromise this will be a SECS for the coast and metro

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more then likely the Euro solution is too extreme and will be dismissed by most forecasters later today and the GFS will also be discounted because it is too flat so a compromise between the two will be the way to go for now ... if there is a compromise this will be a SECS for the coast and metro

Euro's been consistent though

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There's nothing like a nice windy and cold rainstorm for mid March, looks great. 

You're not in the greatest position with this storm, but you're area has done great this season. You should be happy for NW folks just like I was happy for you guys the other day. That's if this even ends up verifying, which is a long way off from being determined.

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You're not in the greatest position with this storm, but you're area has done great this season. You should be happy for NW folks just like I was happy for you guys the other day. That's if this even ends up verifying, which is a long way off from being determined.

I will pay for the lie detector session    just sayin 

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There's nothing like a nice windy and cold rainstorm for mid March, looks great. 

 

 

there's nothing like falling 3 floors out a window and being impaled on a metal gate, either.

 

there's no reason to root for windy rainstorm, when a snowstorm is still on the table.

 

all the wound up solutions seem to fade away as days get closer anyway.

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Is the Euro going to stay or is it too amped like the other times? Time will tell.

12z NAM

 

nam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif

 

Versus 12z Euro at nearly the same hour, or as close as I can get it with a free map. As you can see, they handle the energy out west similarly.

 

f96.gif

 

Now look how much flatter the 12z GGEM is

 

f84.gif

 

and the 12z GFS, also very flat.

 

f90.gif

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There's nothing like a nice windy and cold rainstorm for mid March, looks great. 

 

 

Well U keep Rooting for your rainstorm.. I on other hand am Holding out hope for a Big Grand finale snowstorm. There is nothing WORSE than 35 degree Rainstorm IMO especially when it technically can still snow for another month. Those are type of storms U say what could of been. I don't mind a wrapped up rainstorm and Im sure We will get a Flooding one that helps melt the rest of the snowpack but Im holding out hope that don't happen til April sometime. 

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