Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Idc if we get rain, I want a 984 inside the bm! don't care for a weak wave and 2-4 of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I hope the Euro verifies even if we get mostly rain. Would love a big bomb of a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This is actually a rare case that if we had a -NAO this storm would end up going more inland...12/25/02 was another example of a storm hurt by a -NAO With that high to the north I believe we would have just wound up with a miller B, maybe something more like PDII vs this bowling ball setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This is actually a rare case that if we had a -NAO this storm would end up going more inland...12/25/02 was another example of a storm hurt by a -NAO That storm was nice for the area. We actually got a surprise. I received 5 inches of snow after the rain in the afternoon. My forecast never had a changeover to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The coast is going to change over way before the Euro currently shows if that exact scenario unfolded Curious as to why? isn tthe Euro traditionally a slightly warmer model? Or is this simply because the storm tracks nicely for us on the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I hope the Euro verifies even if we get mostly rain. Would love a big bomb of a system. QPF is 1.00" to as much as 1.50" + in spots. It's the dynamic system we need and are looking for. It would probably flip to heavy snow no later than half way through all the way to the coast. Central and Southern NJ are a bit of a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 If the Euro just hung a little more energy back the low would be further south and less wrapped up. I am not sure if any of the models are getting this right yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Why not? This looks like the classic case of 6" in the valley and 24" in Hewitt. H5 has similarities. The entire setup is further north now than 2/25/10 and there was a closed low over the upper Midwest which phased into it a STJ wave, which blew up the low near eastern Long Island. This likely would not have a similar outcome. This looks like a deep open trough which phases a STJ impulse in and progressively heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Agreed, you have a bombing dynamic system. How anyone could not root for this outcome at H5 similar to this is puzzling. I am. Damn it, didn't miss by much being a HECS for a lot of us. A beast nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 QPF is 1.00" to as much as 1.50" + in spots. It's the dynamic system we need and are looking for. It would probably flip to heavy snow no later than half way through all the way to the coast. Central and Southern NJ are a bit of a different story. Generally in these events NYC/LI changeover about the time the surface winds kicks to 030-040 or more NW and or when the system closes off from 500-850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Agreed, you have a bombing dynamic system. How anyone could not root for this outcome at H5 similar to this is puzzling. In total agreement with you: High risk- high reward for ALL in this bombiung & dynamic H5 scenario. just becomes a question of track with this kind of phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I hope the Euro verifies even if we get mostly rain. Would love a big bomb of a system. For us yeh , but Not N of 78 its tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 That storm was nice for the area. We actually got a surprise. I received 5 inches of snow after the rain in the afternoon. My forecast never had a changeover to snow. That day I had dime sized hail with booming thunder and crazy lightning. Then it quickly flipped to heavy snow. Was probably just the right set of circumstances with shallow cold air and good updrafts within the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 QPF is 1.00" to as much as 1.50" + in spots. It's the dynamic system we need and are looking for. It would probably flip to heavy snow no later than half way through all the way to the coast. Central and Southern NJ are a bit of a different story. There's nothing like a nice windy and cold rainstorm for mid March, looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 more then likely the Euro solution is too extreme and will be dismissed by most forecasters later today and the GFS will also be discounted because it is too flat so a compromise between the two will be the way to go for now ... if there is a compromise this will be a SECS for the coast and metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 the euro could easily be overdone again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 more then likely the Euro solution is too extreme and will be dismissed by most forecasters later today and the GFS will also be discounted because it is too flat so a compromise between the two will be the way to go for now ... if there is a compromise this will be a SECS for the coast and metro Euro's been consistent though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 There's nothing like a nice windy and cold rainstorm for mid March, looks great. You're not in the greatest position with this storm, but you're area has done great this season. You should be happy for NW folks just like I was happy for you guys the other day. That's if this even ends up verifying, which is a long way off from being determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro's been consistent though The GFS was consistent last week and we all know how that turned out One could argue that the GGEM has shown this to be consistently garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 You're not in the greatest position with this storm, but you're area has done great this season. You should be happy for NW folks just like I was happy for you guys the other day. That's if this even ends up verifying, which is a long way off from being determined. I will pay for the lie detector session just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 the euro could easily be overdone again I think it probably is to some extent, but hopefully not by much. As depicted, that's a huge precip shield (partially owing to the sfc high to the north, per the SNE mets), so maybe we have some more leeway with this than the past couple near misses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Is the Euro going to stay or is it too amped like the other times? Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 There's nothing like a nice windy and cold rainstorm for mid March, looks great. there's nothing like falling 3 floors out a window and being impaled on a metal gate, either. there's no reason to root for windy rainstorm, when a snowstorm is still on the table. all the wound up solutions seem to fade away as days get closer anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Is the Euro going to stay or is it too amped like the other times? Time will tell. 12z NAM Versus 12z Euro at nearly the same hour, or as close as I can get it with a free map. As you can see, they handle the energy out west similarly. Now look how much flatter the 12z GGEM is and the 12z GFS, also very flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 You can see the Euro grabs that left over southern stream energy at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 You can see the Euro grabs that left over southern stream energy at the last second. The 500 mb vort maps on Wunderground have that southern vort shearing out ahead of the main trough to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The 500 mb vort maps on Wunderground have that southern vort shearing out ahead of the main trough to the west. Makes sense, the StormVista maps don't have a great 500mb depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 No way of proving but this storm will follow most of the others this year and be very much like the GFS and maybe even furthur south. I would expect teh Euro to start backing off by Sunday at the latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 There's nothing like a nice windy and cold rainstorm for mid March, looks great. Well U keep Rooting for your rainstorm.. I on other hand am Holding out hope for a Big Grand finale snowstorm. There is nothing WORSE than 35 degree Rainstorm IMO especially when it technically can still snow for another month. Those are type of storms U say what could of been. I don't mind a wrapped up rainstorm and Im sure We will get a Flooding one that helps melt the rest of the snowpack but Im holding out hope that don't happen til April sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The Euro handles the ridge out West and PV similarly to the GFS/Ukmet. I expect the Euro will converge to those solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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