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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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I'm hopeful that the Euro will cave today so that we can finally be done with this. The thought of another 5 days of model watching ending in disappointment is more than I can handle at this point in the season.

cave to the GFS ? The GFS for your info is a nice 4 inch storm here - look at the 850's - and other temps cold enough

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

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Seems like this winter will go down as one of the snowiest, yet at the same time one that will end without a single blockbuster event. I guess the one from around Valentines Day was the closest. The fact that it was a two part storm separated it from being one of the greats, although that morning it was snowing as hard in my backyard as it has in the last ten years.

I received around 10 inches from that storm. We would of had a lot more if the CCB hit the area.

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cave to the GFS ? The GFS for your info is a nice 4 inch storm here - look at the 850's - and other temps cold enough

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

Look at surface temps dude.

 

Upper 30's to start.

 

Under 0.50" of QPF.

 

That's not 4" even on your best day.

 

gfs_namer_144_precip_p48.gif

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Look at surface temps dude.

 

Upper 30's to start.

 

Under 0.50" of QPF.

 

That's not 4" even on your best day.

 

 

 

 

Soundings support 3"-5" from NYC and north.

Surface temps drop to the mid 20s. The 1st .09" of the precip is with temps of 33-35 degrees.

.27" more falls with temps of 24-31 degrees.

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Look at surface temps dude.

 

Upper 30's to start.

 

Under 0.50" of QPF.

 

That's not 4" even on your best day.

 

gfs_namer_144_precip_p48.gif

it starts in the evening after dark and as soon as it starts the temps start crashing BUT this ismainly snow on the GFS possibly a mix at the very beginning - 4 inches can verify if the start time is in the evening

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Isn't studying one type of model output over another still studying that same model? You don't need a black hole in the sky for 3-5".

You look at 700mb and you say to yourself, well that looks good. Then you say, well lookie lookie, we're right on the northern edge again at day 5 with a polar airmass to our north. You say to yourself, damn where I have seen this before?

 

gfs_namer_129_700_rh_ht.gif

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GEFS is skewed, most of the individuals on the free site track it into the lakes, kind of looks like OP GGEM. Leaves the energy behind and just had a progressive northern piece that has terrible latitude. 

 

Not really:

 

f132.gif

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This storm to me isn't looking like as much of a big deal as it was 24 hours ago. Weve been down this path before and I expect the weaker solutions to hold and the pv to slowly push this south like the last system. I'm just not buying a triple phase taking place in the deep south with this storm. Maybe the euro is onto something, maybe not....we'll know in about 25 minutes or so.

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This storm to me isn't looking like as much of a big deal as it was 24 hours ago. Weve been down this path before and I expect the weaker solutions to hold and the pv to slowly push this south like the last system. I'm just not buying a triple phase taking place in the deep south with this storm. Maybe the euro is onto something, maybe not....we'll know in about 25 minutes or so.

For the sake of this boards credibility i hope the EURO caves to the more sheared out solutions or the other models go towards the EURO fast. If this gets dragged out over and past the weekend the bickering will only get worse, storm cancel posts and personal attacks will ensue in between the spotty model analysis :lol:

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Not surprising at all for models to back off on the extreme solutions. People need a reality check if they are expecting a big monster storm otherwise 1888 and 1993 would happen all the time.

If you get any snow next week then consider yourself lucky.

At this point in the year i dont want to be tracking possible snow storms. I want to be looking for the seasons first stretch of 50-60 degree days!

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For the sake of this boards credibility i hope the EURO caves to the more sheared out solutions or the other models go towards the EURO fast. If this gets dragged out over and past the weekend the bickering will only get worse, storm cancel posts and personal attacks will ensue in between the spotty model analysis :lol:

Then posters should be suspended. People shouldn't have to act as babysitters because 30 year olds can't control themselves.

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