NEG NAO Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 I'm hopeful that the Euro will cave today so that we can finally be done with this. The thought of another 5 days of model watching ending in disappointment is more than I can handle at this point in the season. cave to the GFS ? The GFS for your info is a nice 4 inch storm here - look at the 850's - and other temps cold enough http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GEFS is a little further north and warmer than the op run but still really weak. Low exits off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I would rather see the NAVGEM stay suppressed at this point. It would worry me if it showed a big hit. It's known for being too far southeast. I have not noticed this bias since it's 4DVAR upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Seems like this winter will go down as one of the snowiest, yet at the same time one that will end without a single blockbuster event. I guess the one from around Valentines Day was the closest. The fact that it was a two part storm separated it from being one of the greats, although that morning it was snowing as hard in my backyard as it has in the last ten years. I received around 10 inches from that storm. We would of had a lot more if the CCB hit the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 cave to the GFS ? The GFS for your info is a nice 4 inch storm here - look at the 850's - and other temps cold enough http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Look at surface temps dude. Upper 30's to start. Under 0.50" of QPF. That's not 4" even on your best day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Look at surface temps dude. Upper 30's to start. Under 0.50" of QPF. That's not 4" even on your best day. Soundings support 3"-5" from NYC and north. Surface temps drop to the mid 20s. The 1st .09" of the precip is with temps of 33-35 degrees. .27" more falls with temps of 24-31 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I have not noticed this bias since it's 4DVAR upgrade. A better bias for the NavGem is that if it strongly resembles the other globals in the day 4-7 range it tends to mean the other globals awe going to make some sort of large shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Soundings support 3"-5" from NYC and north. Surface temps drop to the mid 20s. The 1st .09" of the precip is with temps of 33-35 degrees. .27" more falls with temps of 24-31 degrees. This is why I argue meteorology over modelology. That H5 look isn't a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This is why I argue meteorology over modelology. That H5 look isn't a good one. Looks fine for a weak wave with 2"-4"/3"-5" type of snowfall, which would put NYC very close to 2nd place all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This is why I argue meteorology over modelology. That H5 look isn't a good one. Isn't studying one type of model output over another still studying that same model? You don't need a black hole in the sky for 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 Look at surface temps dude. Upper 30's to start. Under 0.50" of QPF. That's not 4" even on your best day. it starts in the evening after dark and as soon as it starts the temps start crashing BUT this ismainly snow on the GFS possibly a mix at the very beginning - 4 inches can verify if the start time is in the evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Isn't studying one type of model output over another still studying that same model? You don't need a black hole in the sky for 3-5". You look at 700mb and you say to yourself, well that looks good. Then you say, well lookie lookie, we're right on the northern edge again at day 5 with a polar airmass to our north. You say to yourself, damn where I have seen this before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Looks fine for a weak wave with 2"-4"/3"-5" type of snowfall, which would put NYC very close to 2nd place all time. Exactly-that's all we need here-a moderate even to possibly move to 2nd place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 One thing we'll have to also look for is dry air aloft, the GFS is a bit dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GEFS Mean is very similar to the operational except that it's wetter with .50"-.75" QPF for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The GFS has been showing this same solution since the 0z run last night. It has went south from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GEFS is skewed, most of the individuals on the free site track it into the lakes, kind of looks like OP GGEM. Leaves the energy behind and just had a progressive northern piece that has terrible latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GEFS is skewed, most of the individuals on the free site track it into the lakes, kind of looks like OP GGEM. Leaves the energy behind and just had a progressive northern piece that has terrible latitude. Not really: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 12z GGEM mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Not really: Post the frame before that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 12z GGEM mean Yeah, continues to look nothing like the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 6 of them are too far inland, and the others are weak out to sea...1-2 of them would just be light snow/mix events Ag3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The amped up solutions aren't off the table just yet. The GEFS have a couple of amped up solutions. The Euro should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This storm to me isn't looking like as much of a big deal as it was 24 hours ago. Weve been down this path before and I expect the weaker solutions to hold and the pv to slowly push this south like the last system. I'm just not buying a triple phase taking place in the deep south with this storm. Maybe the euro is onto something, maybe not....we'll know in about 25 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Not surprising at all for models to back off on the extreme solutions. People need a reality check if they are expecting a big monster storm otherwise 1888 and 1993 would happen all the time. If you get any snow next week then consider yourself lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 This storm to me isn't looking like as much of a big deal as it was 24 hours ago. Weve been down this path before and I expect the weaker solutions to hold and the pv to slowly push this south like the last system. I'm just not buying a triple phase taking place in the deep south with this storm. Maybe the euro is onto something, maybe not....we'll know in about 25 minutes or so. For the sake of this boards credibility i hope the EURO caves to the more sheared out solutions or the other models go towards the EURO fast. If this gets dragged out over and past the weekend the bickering will only get worse, storm cancel posts and personal attacks will ensue in between the spotty model analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Not surprising at all for models to back off on the extreme solutions. People need a reality check if they are expecting a big monster storm otherwise 1888 and 1993 would happen all the time. If you get any snow next week then consider yourself lucky. At this point in the year i dont want to be tracking possible snow storms. I want to be looking for the seasons first stretch of 50-60 degree days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 7, 2014 Author Share Posted March 7, 2014 At this point in the year i dont want to be tracking possible snow storms. I want to be looking for the seasons first stretch of 50-60 degree days! not for the next few weeks - this March is going to end up below normal - in fact if you believe the GFS we might get as low as 10 degrees again http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 For the sake of this boards credibility i hope the EURO caves to the more sheared out solutions or the other models go towards the EURO fast. If this gets dragged out over and past the weekend the bickering will only get worse, storm cancel posts and personal attacks will ensue in between the spotty model analysis Then posters should be suspended. People shouldn't have to act as babysitters because 30 year olds can't control themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Euro is going to phase in the energy down south again. You can see this happening as early as the end of day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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