Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Decent little snowstorm per the GFS. 3" tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 No way that's 4-8" of snow, not even a chance. Total QPF is under 0.50" for most areas. Not to mention some of that falls as taint or very wet snow. It's def not rain or ice like you proclaimed before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Difficult for me to read the isobars on those maps. But it looks like shows collapsing ridge and energy being left behind over the West. Pretty much like the GFS. Big run for the euro coming up to see if it holds more energy back on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Decent little snowstorm per the GFS. This is where meteorology vs modelology comes into play. That solution at H5 isn't one that's going to deliver the goods as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GGEM splits the energy as well. I expect EURO to trend this way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Big run for the euro coming up to see if it holds more energy back on the 12z run. Euro historically has a bias of holding energy back, so if it doesnt, then I would buy into its solution a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 3" tops That might be generous. The only thing that run has going for it is that most of the precip falls overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I think a big reason the EURO keeps the wave as one is its interaction with the energy over Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GGEM splits the energy as well. I expect EURO to trend this way as well. The GGEM ensemble mean was worlds apart from the GGEM op at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Big run for the euro coming up to see if it holds more energy back on the 12z run. 12z UKMET is nearly identical to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 It's def not rain or ice like you proclaimed before Temps are mid to upper 30s to start so whether its snow or rain its non accumulating. Around .25" falls as snow with temps below freezing. Pointless anyway as this will change drastically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The GGEM ensemble mean was worlds apart from the GGEM op at 00z. True, this far its GFS/UKMET/GGEM vs. EURO with regards to splitting the energy, which creates an entire different scenario. 12z EURO will obviously be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GGEM and Ukie are like the GFS. Euro is going to most likely cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Well this escalated quickly. Looks like the 12z EURO is going to make or break this storm 6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 and you are walking a narrow tight rope also by laughing at them when they have just as much chance being right as the other folks thinking the Euro solution of a wound up bomb with mainly liquid here verifying. Snow88 just posted Uptons thinking and they are favoring either all snow or a wintry mix not liquid at the moment I like the way you spun my comment to suit your own agenda. The GFS may be snow, but it's not much. Temperatures in the mid 30's for most of the storm and light QPF at that. I'm not saying the GFS is wrong. I'm saying that it's not the solution you want if you're looking for anything more than a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GGEM and Ukie are like the GFS. Euro is going to most likely cave. I thought the 00z ECMWF was definitely a stride towards the GFS. The thing is, if you want to believe the solution ends up somewhere in the middle, that's a fairly good scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GGEM and Ukie are like the GFS. Euro is going to most likely cave. Not the same solution as the GFS/UKMET. GGEM has cold front with big low along it, going to our north and west. Rain for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The GGEM info is old The 12z GGEM is what equates to a cold front. Warm temperatures and under 0.50" of pure rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Anyone notice how no other forum or mets are obsessing over a storm this many days out besides us? Last storm shouldve made us more aware that its WAY too far out to draw any kind of conclusions. Saying a EURO run 6 days out is very important is kind of pointless if you ask me. Sunday we can come back to this and look more seriously, but until then be just bickering with spotty model analysis until then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Well the GGEM continues to troll us as of late. It was right about the last storm and seems to be the worst case scenario for us. It doesn't even give New England anything appreciable. We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Last storm shouldve made us more aware that its WAY too far out to draw any kind of conclusions. Saying a EURO run 6 days out is very important is kind of pointless if you ask me. Sunday we can come back to this and look more seriously, but until then be just bickering with spotty model analysis until then.... +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Well the GGEM continues to troll us as of late. It was right about the last storm and seems to be the worst case scenario for us. It doesn't even give New England anything appreciable. We toss We don't toss anything at this point. Anything is on the table right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Well the GGEM continues to troll us as of late. It was right about the last storm and seems to be the worst case scenario for us. It doesn't even give New England anything appreciable. We toss If you think that is trolling then don't look at the 12z Navgem (nogaps). LOL. It's a carbon copy of this past Monday. Almost to the exact mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I miss the days when one could, in good conscious, blindly follow the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 We don't toss anything at this point. Anything is on the table right now. I'm hopeful that the Euro will cave today so that we can finally be done with this. The thought of another 5 days of model watching ending in disappointment is more than I can handle at this point in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I'm hopeful that the Euro will cave today so that we can finally be done with this. The thought of another 5 days of model watching ending in disappointment is more than I can handle at this point in the season. Hopefully this storm doesn't go down the tubes like the last one did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 If you think that is trolling then don't look at the 12z Navgem (nogaps). LOL. It's a carbon copy of this past Monday. Almost to the exact mile. I would rather see the NAVGEM stay suppressed at this point. It would worry me if it showed a big hit. It's known for being too far southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 If you think that is trolling then don't look at the 12z Navgem (nogaps). LOL. It's a carbon copy of this past Monday. Almost to the exact mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I'm hopeful that the Euro will cave today so that we can finally be done with this. The thought of another 5 days of model watching ending in disappointment is more than I can handle at this point in the season. Please some people wont be giving up on this until Tuesday night. It can always come back north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Hopefully this storm doesn't go down the tubes like the last one did. Seems like this winter will go down as one of the snowiest, yet at the same time one that will end without a single blockbuster event. I guess the one from around Valentines Day was the closest. The fact that it was a two part storm separated it from being one of the greats, although that morning it was snowing as hard in my backyard as it has in the last ten years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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