PB GFI Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Something to note, the 00z GGEM mean looks nothing like the 00z OP. Sub 1000mb low over the Delmarva and then a track right over the benchmark. Looks a bit warm but it's also not quite as dynamic as the ECMWF. Probably a good compromise between the GFS and Euro right now. And that`s all I am looking for . Weak through the mid cycle is a positive for us . Willing to see what this looks like modeled in 48 hours in the plains before I even worry about exacts . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Taking into the EURO tendency to hold energy back that "should" raise some eyebrows but seeing the progressive nature of this pattern does lend credibilty to the GFS solution as well, just way too early to focus on any real outcome to be honest If the op GFS idea of how flat that western ridge is is correct this storm won't be much to talk about without a doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I like the northern jet on the 12z GFS thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS is splitting the energy out west again...Going to be a northern dominant system, but cold is a bit better (HP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS & EURO way different, but the GFS might be better for snow because it may develop a weak low on the frontal boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Looks like a 3-6/4-8 type deal on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Would be funny if in the bs this ends up surpressed and ots. Just goes to show how unusual this pattern is in March. NYC -11 for the month right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS is still meh and even warmer this run. If the GFS ends up verifying this won't be much of anything for our region. We really need a dynamic bomb this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 996 outside the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS is way different with the main shortwave, it splits it, leaving most of the energy behind. A big role there is its interaction with the remaining energy around Texas...We still have 0 consensus on this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS & EURO way different, but the GFS might be better for snow because it may develop a weak low on the frontal boundary. The GFS is basically a moderate ice storm for almost the entire area south of I-84. The column cools as the low pulls away, but by that time not much precip is left over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS is still meh and even warmer this run. If the GFS ends up verifying this won't be much of anything for our region. We really need a dynamic bomb this time of year. No it's not. It's colder then 06z. Those temps verbatim support snow for this sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Keep wishing for that weak solution folks and you're going to end up in the same boat that we did last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The GFS is basically a moderate ice storm for almost the entire area south of I-84. The column cools as the low pulls away, but by that time not much precip is left over. No it's not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Nice 4-8 inch snowfall on this run. The GFS really reminds me of this past storm. Hope it doesn't continue to go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 GFS hangs back much more energy than the Euro does so it's more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 The GFS is basically a moderate ice storm for almost the entire area south of I-84. The column cools as the low pulls away, but by that time not much precip is left over. an ice storm in mid march on the coast? Doubt that even comes close to verifying (asssuming that's what it shows-others saying all snow and 4-8?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Its pointless to discuss the details on the GFS because the 500mb evolution compared to the EURO is WAYYYY different. Until we have any consensus on whether this energy will lag behind its pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 No it's not. It's colder then 06z. Those temps verbatim support snow for this sub forum. Actually I have my lines backwards. The 850 freezing line is south but the surface is warm. Probably mid-30's at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 You aren't gonna end up with a BWI DCA storm this time it's either gonna be a storm up here or no storm at all there is not a sufficient setup to get something big going that ends up south of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 an ice storm in mid march on the coast? Doubt that even comes close to verifying (asssuming that's what it shows-others saying all snow and 4-8?) I switched the lines, it's snow and 35 degrees. Good luck with that. Precip remains light throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Nice 4-8 inch snowfall on this run. The GFS really reminds me of this past storm. Hope it doesn't continue to go south. If it's another sheared out to nothing system, sure it can keep going south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 You aren't gonna end up with a BWI DCA storm this time it's either gonna be a storm up here or no storm at all there is not a sufficient setup to get something big going that ends up south of here It's a terrible setup at H5 as modeled on the GFS. If that 500mb map ends up even close to verifying we'll be lucky to see an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 I switched the lines, it's snow and 35 degrees. Good luck with that. Precip remains light throughout. Agree-light or moderate snow at that temp ain't going to cut it on 3/13. Looks like the big storm option might be slipping away as most models not showing it anymore, however sometimes they lose it mid-range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 sounding is pretty impressive.. saturated through the snow growth region and good lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 No way that's 4-8" of snow, not even a chance. Total QPF is under 0.50" for most areas. Not to mention some of that falls as taint or very wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 UKMET in suppressed camp also with energy hanging back to SW. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1021&ech=0&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Decent little snowstorm per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 UKMET suppressed also. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1021&ech=0&archive=0 Difficult for me to read the isobars on those maps. But it looks like shows collapsing ridge and energy being left behind over the West. Pretty much like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2014 Share Posted March 7, 2014 Looks like UKMET splits the energy out west as well. This would go WAY against the ECM ensembles which don't split it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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