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March 12 -14 Potential Storm


NEG NAO

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Something to note, the 00z GGEM mean looks nothing like the 00z OP.

 

Sub 1000mb low over the Delmarva and then a track right over the benchmark. Looks a bit warm but it's also not quite as dynamic as the ECMWF. Probably a good compromise between the GFS and Euro right now.

And that`s all I am looking for . Weak through the mid cycle is a positive for us . Willing to see what this looks like  modeled in  48 hours in the plains before I even worry about exacts . 

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Taking into the EURO tendency to hold energy back that "should" raise some eyebrows but seeing the progressive nature of this pattern does lend credibilty to the GFS solution as well, just way too early to focus on any real outcome to be honest

If the op GFS idea of how flat that western ridge is is correct this storm won't be much to talk about without a doubt.

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GFS is still meh and even warmer this run. If the GFS ends up verifying this won't be much of anything for our region. We really need a dynamic bomb this time of year.

No it's not. It's colder then 06z. Those temps verbatim support snow for this sub forum.

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The GFS is basically a moderate ice storm for almost the entire area south of I-84. The column cools as the low pulls away, but by that time not much precip is left over.

an ice storm in mid march on the coast?   Doubt that even comes close to verifying (asssuming that's what it shows-others saying all snow and 4-8?)

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You aren't gonna end up with a BWI DCA storm this time it's either gonna be a storm up here or no storm at all there is not a sufficient setup to get something big going that ends up south of here

It's a terrible setup at H5 as modeled on the GFS. If that 500mb map ends up even close to verifying we'll be lucky to see an inch.

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I switched the lines, it's snow and 35 degrees. Good luck with that. Precip remains light throughout.

Agree-light or moderate snow at that temp ain't going to cut it on 3/13.    Looks like the big storm option might be slipping away as most models not showing it anymore, however sometimes they lose it mid-range

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